SMM China basic Metals production data released in November

Summary of basic Metal production in China in November 2018

In November 2018, SMM China produced 746100 tons of refined copper, an increase of 3.53 per cent from the previous month and 3.91 per cent from the same period last year. From January to November, the cumulative output was 7.9727 million tons, an increase of 9.7 per cent over the same period last year.

In November, the domestic refined copper output was not affected by the maintenance of the smelter, and the spot copper concentrate TC and sulfuric acid prices remained high to provide kinetic energy for the smelter to maintain a high operating rate. During the year, Chinalco southeast copper industry, west mine Qinghai, Guotou Jincheng, Wuzhou Jinsheng and other smelters, capacity utilization further increased, is the main reason for the increase in production. By the end of November, electrolytic copper has been exported to all the newly expanded smelter projects in 2018, including the original gold smelter, Tongling Jinchang relocation project, and Yuguang gold and lead production.

According to the demeanor of the refineries in December, the overall output will be further increased by 767600 tons in order to increase the utilization rate of new production capacity and some enterprises to pursue production by the end of the year in order to meet the annual production target. The annual output will reach 8.7402 million tons, an increase of 9.1 percent over the previous month.

Alumina:

In November (30 days), China's alumina production was 6.082 million tons, an increase of 6.7 percent over the same period last year, and the average daily output was 203000 tons, an increase of 4.1 percent from the previous month.

China's total alumina production in January-November 2018 was 64.3 million tons, up 2.3 per cent from a year earlier. The increment mainly comes from the release and overproduction of the new production capacity of Shanxi and Henan alumina plants, as well as the relief of ore shortage and the end of production line maintenance in some alumina plants in Guizhou and Shanxi provinces. Maintenance of power plant and roaster in Shanxi alumina plant, b. The presence of the environmental protection group in Guizhou has affected the output of individual enterprises, while the ore shortage of individual manufacturers in Guizhou has not yet been alleviated. The production of alumina plant in Zhengzhou area of Henan Province was limited because of orange early warning weather. The production capacity of alumina in Shandong area is limited. In December (31 days), China's alumina production is expected to be 6.169 million tons, with an average daily output of 199000 tons, mainly from Henan. According to SMM, almost all alumina plants in Henan have received production restrictions. However, the specific impact of production needs to be continuously followed.

Electrolytic aluminum:

In November (30 days), China's electrolytic aluminum production was 2.959 million tons, an increase of 1.8 percent over the same period last year. The average daily output in November was 99000 tons, 1.8 per cent lower than the average daily output in October. By the end of November, the annual operation capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 36.001 million tons, an increase of 645000 tons over the same period last year. In November, the comprehensive operating rate of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in China was 85.7 percent, 2.9 percentage points lower than that in October. Month-on-month production fell in November, mainly due to losses and other reasons caused by the aluminum plant production reduction, as of the current domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity of about 2.3 million tons, in addition, there is still about 460000 tons of production capacity to be reduced. In addition, domestic new production capacity continued to slow down, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Yunnan and other provinces to increase capacity scale is lower than expected. After December, the reduction and addition of domestic electrolytic aluminum will continue at the same time, and the rate of production reduction will exceed the amount of new production capacity, and the actual annual production capacity of the whole country is expected to be reduced to 35.8 million tons in December. Electrolytic aluminium production is expected to be 3.041 million tons in December, a year-on-year growth rate of 1.3 per cent.

Primary lead:

In November 2018, the production of primary lead was 265000 tons, up 3.74 percent from the previous month, down 6.43 percent from the same period last year, and the cumulative output from January to November was 2.721 million tons, down 9.71 percent from the same period last year.

In November, the national production of primary lead increased by more than 9600 tons compared with October, higher than expected in the previous report. According to SMM research, November is the end of the year, large smelting enterprises generally increase production impulse, although due to heavy pollution weather, environmental protection supervision and other factors, The production limit of some smelting enterprises such as Henan and Hunan ranges from 10 to 30 percent (the actual production limit varies from 10 to 30 percent according to the actual pollution situation of each enterprise, and most large enterprises have a high degree of compliance, and some of them are restricted to crude lead links). And the source of raw materials is more to make up for the purchase of crude lead, the output of refineries does not decrease but increase. In addition, Liaoning, Henan and other places have smelting enterprises maintenance and recovery, so the overall output of primary lead increased significantly.

Looking forward to December, although it is during the autumn and winter heating season, the probability of heavy pollution weather in the north is relatively large, and smelting enterprises still have the possibility of limiting production, but the impulse of lead smelting enterprises at the end of the year is expected to remain unchanged. At the same time, Henan, Shandong and Yunnan have finished the maintenance of smelting enterprises, and most of them are medium and large enterprises, and the output has increased significantly. SMM expects the output of primary lead to increase by nearly 15000 tons to 279800 tons in December.

Refined zinc:

In November 2018, SMM China produced 45.64 refined zinc, down 0.63% from the previous month and 10.4% from the same period last year. From January to November, the cumulative output was 4.882 million tons, down 1.95 per cent from the same period last year.

In November, the processing fee of zinc concentrate at home and abroad still recorded a large increase, stimulating the enthusiasm of domestic smelters. Some refineries in the current production on the basis of a month-on-month increase of 500 to 1000 tons, on the original basis as far as possible to release some of the production capacity. At the same time, Hunan Xuanhua resumed production in late November, increasing some of its production. However, the overall increment is difficult to offset the reduction, Zhuzhou smelting due to relocation, the output is further reduced, Chihong zinc and germanium annual plan completed, reduce production maintenance, reduce part of the output; At the same time, some minor repairs due to process or furnace problems affect the output for 1 to 2 days. Hanzhong zinc industry is flat compared with the previous month, and there is no increment for the time being. On the whole, there are still bottlenecks in the increase in short-term refinery production.

In December, some companies still slightly increased their existing production, while Hunan Xuanghua is expected to release some of its production further. However, Zhuzhou smelting is expected to further reduce production as a result of relocation. Therefore, it is difficult to increase in December.

According to the enterprise production plan, domestic refined zinc production is expected to decrease by 1600 tons to 454700 tons in December compared with November, a decrease of 0.36 percent from the previous month, and a decrease of 5.99 percent over the same period last year. The cumulative decline from January to December is expected to be around 2.31 per cent from the same period last year.

Electrolytic nickel:

In November, the national natural monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 13700 tons, down 4.64 percent from the same period last year, and the cumulative output from January to November was 132900 tons, down 8.23 percent from the same period last year. In November, the national electrolytic nickel production increased by 3.86% compared with October, mainly due to the fact that electrolytic nickel producers increased their production efforts near the end of the month to make up for the reduction in production before maintenance, and reached the full-year production plan. According to a preliminary SMM survey, electrolytic nickel producers will maintain the pace of production in December, and national production is expected to be basically flat in December compared with November.

Nickel pig iron:

In November, the national nickel pig iron rose 3.75 per cent to 41700 nickel tons, an increase of 1.42 per cent from the same period last year. From January to November, the national output of nickel pig iron was 415600 nickel tons, an increase of 8.47 per cent over the same period last year. In terms of taste, the production of high nickel pig iron increased by 4.67 per cent to 38000 nickel tons in November compared with the previous month, mainly due to the extinction of the impact of power cuts in Inner Mongolia, with the production cycle increasing by 19.90 per cent to 5400 nickel. Production of low-nickel pig iron fell 4.97 per cent to 3700 nickel tons in November from a month earlier, mainly due to the suspension of production at a factory in South China in early November because of a weaker market for low-nickel iron.

In December, national nickel pig iron production is expected to decrease slightly from 0.69 per cent to 41400 nickel tons, roughly the same as in November, while high nickel pig iron production is expected to decrease by 0.42 per cent to 37900 nickel tons and low nickel pig iron production by 3.49 per cent to 3500 nickel tons.

Nickel sulfate:

In November, China produced 8800 tons of nickel sulfate and 40200 tons in kind. From January to November, China produced 85100 tons of nickel sulfate and 386800 tons in kind. The output in November increased by 4.09% over October, and the increment was mainly contributed by Tianjin and Zhejiang. It is worth mentioning that at present, the output of nickel sulfate in Tianjin has increased significantly compared with previous months, and after more than half a year of commissioning and production this year, the output of local factories has increased to around 4000 tons for two months in a row. In December, China's nickel sulfate production will continue to climb. At the same time, due to the adjustment of the output of some sample enterprises, SMM revised China's nickel sulfate production to 8500 tons of metal and 38600 tons of physical objects in October.

Refined tin:

Refined tin production in November was 11279 tons, down 9.7 per cent from October. The main reason for the significant decline in output in November was the suspension and reduction of production in Yunnan tin factories due to routine maintenance and shortage of raw materials. In particular, the annual maintenance and shutdown of Yunxi has a great impact on the total output; other manufacturers reduce production to varying degrees. A large tin factory in Jiangxi has also cut production because of equipment maintenance. Huaxi and Dajingzi tin industry resumed normal production due to the end of early maintenance. Of course, as a result of the sharp rise in tin prices in November, some tin factories have increased their enthusiasm for production and their output has risen slightly. Refined tin production is expected to be 11600 tons in December, little change from November as a whole, mainly taking into account the imminent resumption of production, production will continue to recover.

Research methodology:

1) Research methods

SMM production survey is conducted by professional analysts by telephone, field research and other methods, regular monthly tracking of Chinese metal production enterprises, and based on this to issue a report on China's metal production.

In the process of research, ensure the basic coverage ratio of the sample, and continue to expand; at the same time, consider the production capacity scale, regional distribution, enterprise nature and other detailed factors to reasonably select and distribute the sample, so that each itemized data is representative.

The production data include last month's output (initial value), the previous month's output (revised value) and the forecast for the current month's production. In general, SMM rarely modifies the output, that is, the correction value = the initial value, but still retains the possibility of correction.

Before the 10th of each month, it was released through the official website of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (www.smm.cn), APP "handheld Nonferrous", WeChat Subscription account (Today Nonferrous), mobile phone station (m.smm.cn) and other official channels.