The leading indicator of US consumer confidence continued to decline after the Fed raised interest rates for the third time this year in September, with the latest data showing lower expectations for both the present and the future. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index, released on Wednesday, ended at 97.5 in November, the lowest since August. Expectations and early November values were 98.3, compared with 98.6 in October. The index has fallen since it rose above the 100 mark in March and fluctuated more in the second half of the year. The initial period of August reached an 11-month low, and the initial value of September reached 100.8, the second highest this year, second only to the record of 101.4 since January 2004, which was set in March.
Supply and demand details:
On the demand side, the initial output of the SMM survey of 3 series stainless steel samples in November was 1.22 million tons (here is the stainless steel sample production data), which is basically the same as in October, and there will be a risk of decline in stainless steel production in December. SMM research learned that Guangqing Technology, Beihai Chengde, Dongfang Special Steel will arrange a small reduction in December, conservatively estimated to reduce the reduction of at least 40, 000 tons of 3-series stainless steel in December. The main reasons for the reduction include poor sales, routine repair of the furnace and so on. (3) the profits of steel mills transmitted by social inventory accumulation are narrowing, and the reduction of steel mills is gradually taking place.
Nickel pig iron, a first-class nickel substitute, saw an increase in the supply of high-nickel pig iron in China in November, but it is necessary to guard against the impact of the second round of environmental protection on production and the expected production reduction caused by weaker profits in EF in Inner Mongolia under downward price pressure. According to SMM research, under the influence of the second batch of environmental protection looking back, Shandong and Liaoning are expected to be affected by 1100 metal tons in November, accounting for 3% of the national nickel iron production in October. SMM will continue to pay attention to whether the impact of environmental protection will expand. Last week, a steel plant in North China sold 1020 yuan / nickel point, and a steel plant in South China sold 1020 yuan / nickel point. Under the downward pressure of nickel-iron price, the profit of Inner Mongolia EF, which has the highest cost, has been less than 4 per cent. Of the nine factories in Inner Mongolia, five are EF processes, accounting for about 62 per cent of Inner Mongolia's high nickel iron production in October. SMM will continue to observe its profits and guard against the risk of production cuts. In addition, the expansion of NPI by major Chinese companies may be delayed by one quarter.
In terms of inventories, nickel stocks were 215300 tons, down 240 tons from yesterday; on Friday, the previous period stocks were 16400 tons, up 1558 tons from the week before last. East China inventories on Friday were up 2400 tons to 20, 000 tons from the week before last. The bonded area has a stock of 29500 tons, 1000 tons less than the week before last.