[SMM analysis] can the overall weakness of the black system of silicon and manganese come out of the independent market?-Shanghai Metals Market

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[SMM analysis] can the overall weakness of the black system of silicon and manganese come out of the independent market?

Translation 09:23:02AM Nov 14, 2018 Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM11 13: the first two working days of the week, the silicon and manganese spot market performance steady medium and slight decline, the latest trading center of gravity in the northern region in 8450 to 8600 yuan / ton (cash factory) around, compared with the November tender price level of Hegang and last week compared to a little weaker. However, the spot resources in the market are not abundant, most manufacturers mainly submit documents, the inventory level is low, individual spot sale of the intention price of small and medium-sized manufacturers slightly loosened, the overall performance of the market sentiment is OK. However, recently, the black disk as a whole has weakened, and where the price of silicon and manganese will go, has become the focus of attention of many market participants.

Inner Mongolia silicomanganese 6517 (acceptance) unit: yuan / ton

(price chart of silicon and manganese in the past month)

Black system is now down ferroalloy futures implicated in the down

Since November, the black system has plummeted for days, suffering from the cooling of domestic demand, the further relaxation of production restrictions in autumn and winter in Tangshan, the reduction and reduction of production restrictions by some steel enterprises, the increase in supply in Xuzhou, Tangshan, and other places, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. As of November 13, the day closing price was 3868 yuan / ton, down 376 yuan / ton, or nearly 9%, from the high of 4244 yuan / ton at the end of October.

Although there is recent news that the heating season around the country to limit production, wrong peak production policies have been released, the black system in the decline after many days to stabilize the trend, but from the strength of the rebound, the upper power is still slightly insufficient. SMM steel analysis believes that steel prices may rebound in the short term, but mostly speculative behavior, the focus of RB1901 contracts further downward trend remains unchanged. On the existing time node, the market changes from peak season to off-season, and the support margin of low inventory for steel price becomes weak. Iron ore, bicoke and other black systems also fell more deeply, falling 9% in hot coil, 7.2% in coke, 7% in coking coal and 6.4% in iron ore compared with the high at the end of October.

The rebar has continued to decline since November:

Ferroalloy, in the black system fell sharply and the overall market weakening pattern, resulting in upstream raw materials have a certain profit compression expectations, manganese silicon futures prices with obvious decline. Since hitting a new high in August on October 29, manganese silicon futures have continued to decline, closing at 8378 yuan / ton on November 13, down 550yuan / ton, or 6.2 per cent, in the past half month.

Steel mill profit decline to suppress the alloy trend silicon manganese market can be stable?

1. From the point of view of cost and profit, due to the gradual pressure of manganese ore cost, although Si-mn alloy has profit, but the profit space is not high. Even if the Si-mn alloy plant allows profit to ship and return to the price of maintaining a break-even balance, there will only be room for a reduction of about 200 to 300 yuan, and the narrow decline in alloy prices will not play a significant role in reducing the overall cost of steel mills. Therefore, although the trend of steel price can become a guide to affect the Si-mn alloy market, the actual operation space of Si-mn alloy price is mainly based on its basic actual performance, manufacturer shipping situation and ore cost and so on.

2. From the point of view of supply and demand, after a round of capacity expansion in the fourth quarter, the price of Si-mn alloy is still strong, which is considered to have passed the "test." in winter, the new capacity-intensive production period has long passed, within nearly a month or two. The supply level of silicon and manganese will basically maintain the current situation and normally meet the demand of the market, that is, there is little hope that the supply side will continue to increase greatly. On the demand side, since the beginning of this year, crude steel production has remained high, the demand for alloy is strong, and the production limit is not as strong as in previous years, so although the demand for silicon and manganese may decrease slightly after entering winter, the power of obvious reduction in silicon and manganese demand has not been seen yet. In addition, in terms of unit consumption, the new thread standard has been implemented, and the unit consumption of silicon and manganese can not be flexibly reduced. Therefore, on the whole, the fundamental performance of Si-mn itself is OK, at least compared with other black varieties.

[SMM analysis] can the overall weakness of the black system of silicon and manganese come out of the independent market?

Translation 09:23:02AM Nov 14, 2018 Source:SMM
The content below was translated by Tencent automatically for reference.

SMM11 13: the first two working days of the week, the silicon and manganese spot market performance steady medium and slight decline, the latest trading center of gravity in the northern region in 8450 to 8600 yuan / ton (cash factory) around, compared with the November tender price level of Hegang and last week compared to a little weaker. However, the spot resources in the market are not abundant, most manufacturers mainly submit documents, the inventory level is low, individual spot sale of the intention price of small and medium-sized manufacturers slightly loosened, the overall performance of the market sentiment is OK. However, recently, the black disk as a whole has weakened, and where the price of silicon and manganese will go, has become the focus of attention of many market participants.

Inner Mongolia silicomanganese 6517 (acceptance) unit: yuan / ton

(price chart of silicon and manganese in the past month)

Black system is now down ferroalloy futures implicated in the down

Since November, the black system has plummeted for days, suffering from the cooling of domestic demand, the further relaxation of production restrictions in autumn and winter in Tangshan, the reduction and reduction of production restrictions by some steel enterprises, the increase in supply in Xuzhou, Tangshan, and other places, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. As of November 13, the day closing price was 3868 yuan / ton, down 376 yuan / ton, or nearly 9%, from the high of 4244 yuan / ton at the end of October.

Although there is recent news that the heating season around the country to limit production, wrong peak production policies have been released, the black system in the decline after many days to stabilize the trend, but from the strength of the rebound, the upper power is still slightly insufficient. SMM steel analysis believes that steel prices may rebound in the short term, but mostly speculative behavior, the focus of RB1901 contracts further downward trend remains unchanged. On the existing time node, the market changes from peak season to off-season, and the support margin of low inventory for steel price becomes weak. Iron ore, bicoke and other black systems also fell more deeply, falling 9% in hot coil, 7.2% in coke, 7% in coking coal and 6.4% in iron ore compared with the high at the end of October.

The rebar has continued to decline since November:

Ferroalloy, in the black system fell sharply and the overall market weakening pattern, resulting in upstream raw materials have a certain profit compression expectations, manganese silicon futures prices with obvious decline. Since hitting a new high in August on October 29, manganese silicon futures have continued to decline, closing at 8378 yuan / ton on November 13, down 550yuan / ton, or 6.2 per cent, in the past half month.

Steel mill profit decline to suppress the alloy trend silicon manganese market can be stable?

1. From the point of view of cost and profit, due to the gradual pressure of manganese ore cost, although Si-mn alloy has profit, but the profit space is not high. Even if the Si-mn alloy plant allows profit to ship and return to the price of maintaining a break-even balance, there will only be room for a reduction of about 200 to 300 yuan, and the narrow decline in alloy prices will not play a significant role in reducing the overall cost of steel mills. Therefore, although the trend of steel price can become a guide to affect the Si-mn alloy market, the actual operation space of Si-mn alloy price is mainly based on its basic actual performance, manufacturer shipping situation and ore cost and so on.

2. From the point of view of supply and demand, after a round of capacity expansion in the fourth quarter, the price of Si-mn alloy is still strong, which is considered to have passed the "test." in winter, the new capacity-intensive production period has long passed, within nearly a month or two. The supply level of silicon and manganese will basically maintain the current situation and normally meet the demand of the market, that is, there is little hope that the supply side will continue to increase greatly. On the demand side, since the beginning of this year, crude steel production has remained high, the demand for alloy is strong, and the production limit is not as strong as in previous years, so although the demand for silicon and manganese may decrease slightly after entering winter, the power of obvious reduction in silicon and manganese demand has not been seen yet. In addition, in terms of unit consumption, the new thread standard has been implemented, and the unit consumption of silicon and manganese can not be flexibly reduced. Therefore, on the whole, the fundamental performance of Si-mn itself is OK, at least compared with other black varieties.