SMM11, 10 July: at the 2018 (sixth) China Zinc oxide Industry chain Trading Summit hosted by Shanghai Nonferrous Network, Host SMM Zinc Industry Senior analyst Liu Mengyue invited five bigwigs to discuss the impact of the Sino-US trade war on zinc oxide terminal sections, the views on terminal consumption next year, and the future development of terminal sections.
Wang Yanlong, Chairman of Weifang Aolong Zinc Industry Co., Ltd.
Gao Zhichao, Deputy General Manager of Shijiazhuang Zhiyi Zinc Industry Co., Ltd.
Chu Daxing, General Manager of Meizin (Changshu) Metal Co., Ltd.
Liang Hexian, Chairman of Shaoguan Kaihong Nanomaterials Co., Ltd.
Xie Shaochen, Deputy General Manager of Marketing Company of Hebei Yuanda Zhongzheng Biotechnology Co., Ltd.
SMM: tire anti-dumping policy has continued in recent years, and this year's sudden trade war impact, what is the impact on zinc oxide terminal rubber tire orders? What do you think of the impact on the zinc oxide industry and indirect zinc oxide production?
Wang Yanlong: China's tire industry, after many years, repeated, anti-dumping "temper", has become more mature and healthy, for the current trade war impact resistance, is still relatively strong. It cannot be said that the trade war has no impact, but the impact on the rubber tire industry is temporary and manageable. This effect, transmitted to the zinc oxide industry, its negative impact is also limited.
Liang Hexian: the advantages of direct zinc oxide are small investment, low operating cost and mature process. The disadvantages are that the selection surface of raw materials is narrow, the content of impurities is large, the proportion of raw materials to the total cost is high, the added value is low, and the risk resistance coefficient is small. In recent years, the national requirements for environmental protection continue to improve, the market is also shrinking low profits in the case of low operation, the pressure on direct zinc oxide is very great. Direct zinc oxide, low profits or even upside down may last for quite a while
Gao Zhichao: the impact of trade war on rubber is not great, but the impact of electronic orders is not great, because the proportion of the whole rubber is relatively large, so the impact is not necessarily great. The central bank has been releasing water is not a direct solution, the current more positive, a period of time with Tsinghua University signed strategic research and development, to provide innovation; The second is that in addition to factories in Southeast Asia, there is also the cooperation of Belt and Road Initiative, so it is still more optimistic.
According to SMM: 's latest "Code for the safe use of Feed Additives" this year, the upper limit of zinc oxide in feed for piglets before and after weaning will be limited to 1600mg/kg (in terms of zinc). What is the impact on the orders of active zinc oxide enterprises? And how will the active zinc oxide enterprises deal with it?
Xie Shaochen: both the domestic market and the foreign market have a relatively high market share. In the 23 years of development of the Broad Group, the feed industry has always been our key industry, and the reduction of addition has increased the difficulty of sales. We are also actively adjusting in the following areas:
(1) continuously control product quality (2) speed up new product research and development (3) broaden the sales industry in this way to cope with the more fierce market competition in the future.
SMM: slag price coefficient this year fell slightly compared with the same period last year, raw material tension has been slightly alleviated, what is the impact on zinc oxide orders? What will be the supply of slag next year?
Wang Yanlong: the decrease of slag price coefficient reflects that the relationship between supply and demand of zinc slag has changed, indicating that the demand of zinc oxide industry is decreasing, but recently, the price coefficient of slag is rising again.
The reduction of slag price coefficient will, to a certain extent, reduce the raw material cost of zinc oxide users. However, the most fundamental factor affecting product orders is the relationship between supply and demand, not the high and low slag price coefficient.
The supply of slag should be relatively stable next year. At present, the growth rate of the real estate industry is slowing down, and the growth rate of manufacturing and public basic industries is accelerating. Therefore, the overall market demand for hot-dip galvanized materials is relatively stable.
Liang Hexian: zinc oxide market demand has been saturated, demand increment is very little, each downstream including zinc oxide industry has entered the adjustment period, good internal skills to reduce costs, compliance with the legitimate operation is an urgent task for enterprises. Using the recent propaganda words of famous enterprises to "live" is the main theme of our enterprise. This is not pessimistic, the crisis is the turning point of the industry, grasp all kinds of conditions to live, enterprises must have a bright future.
What does SMM: think of the price trend of zinc ingots and zinc oxide in the future? Zinc oxide industry is in the current situation of a macro and micro environment, the future development of the whole industry will have what opportunities and challenges?
Wang Yanlong: the challenge is permanent, the opportunity is temporary, is fleeting. Under the influence of macro and micro environment, the technological upgrading and large-scale production capacity of zinc oxide industry should be the general trend of development in the future. In this context, the active transformation of the enterprise, the challenge is the opportunity, the passive transformation of the enterprise, the opportunity is the challenge. I believe that after a period of integration in the future, China's indirect zinc oxide industry will be healthier and more confident.
Prospect of Zinc Price in SMM: next year
Xie Shaochen: without great changes in the economic situation and environmental protection policies at home and abroad, commodity prices will not soar and plummet, and the production costs and environmental protection inputs of various enterprises will be there. However, it is certain that the market competition will be more and more fierce, customers, industries, new product promotion will appear more and more tug-of-war, there is a long way to go.
Gao Zhichao: my personal view is that the price of zinc ingots will go down, and the price of zinc oxide will follow, and there will be a process that will be affected by the economy of the whole country. The main reason is that the economic climate of the country is depressed, and the overall environment is here. But to give everyone is a fair environment, or to sail against the current do not advance or fall behind, challenges and opportunities coexist.
What does SMM: think of the impact on overall consumption next year, and what will be the development of consumption next year?
Chu Daxing: now the market is not very good. The tire and chemical industries have been hit hard, but the price of zinc will not fall any more.