SMM, Nov. 6: Tuesday, the domestic commodity market is still showing a differentiation trend, black system trend differentiation, coke rose for the third day in a row, thread lost 4000 pass. Nonferrous overall weakness, Shanghai lead fell 1.75%, Shanghai copper fell 0.66%.
Iron ore futures rose 1 per cent on Tuesday morning after BHP suspended all iron ore rail shipments in western Australia after a train accident, sparking concerns about supply tightening. BHP made the decision because a train carrying iron ore derailed after driving 100 kilometers at high speed on BHP's Newman Mountains. BHP Billiton has four processing plants and five mines in Pilbra, Western Australia, connected by more than 1000 kilometers of rail infrastructure and port facilities. The market fell all the way in the afternoon, closing down 0.1%. Coking coal is up 0.4%, coke is up 1.33%, thread is down 1.86%, and hot roll is down 0.8%.
The mid-term elections in the United States will officially kick off today, and it is widely expected that the mid-term elections will be beneficial to the Democratic Party. The election represents both Trump's midterm results for two years in office and will determine the pattern of US politics over the next two years. The election results will be released in turn tomorrow (November 7) morning.
In terms of capital flows today
In terms of capital flows, a large amount of money poured back into the commodity markets, and the Wenhua Commodity Index flowed into 1.633 billion funds, of which the black chain index was still the biggest winner, with 849 million of the funds in the bag. Methanol continued to fall sharply to attract the attention of funds, today only won 522 million of the favor of funds. The non-ferrous plate is still weak, abandoned by 357 million funds.
A brief comment by SMM analyst on Nov. 6
Copper: today, the main 1901 contract of Shanghai copper opened at 49690 yuan / ton in the morning. At the beginning of the day, the copper price was arranged in a narrow range along the daily average, and the copper began to fall sharply. Shanghai copper followed, a large number of short positions came in, and the center of gravity of copper prices slowly fell below the daily average. During the next touch intraday low of 49480 yuan / ton, on the low into the air, copper prices slightly concussion upward, and then along the 49600 yuan / ton line narrow range finishing. In the afternoon, London copper rose, Shanghai copper was boosted by this, a small shock upward to the daily average above, late trading, copper prices along the daily average narrow range finishing, but mostly above the daily average, closed at 49660 yuan / ton, down 340 yuan / ton, down 0.68 per cent. The main force position increased by 5086 hands to 175000 hands, and the transaction decreased by 48622 hands to 144000 hands. The number of positions in the current and alternate monthly contracts was reduced by 8810, of which 5130 were reduced by the alternate monthly contracts. Today, the main center of gravity of Shanghai Copper fell slightly to the middle and lower rail of Brin, but effectively supported in the 10-day moving average, the MACD green energy column showed a narrowing trend, and the KDJ opening expanded. In the evening, we will continue to pay attention to the situation of short positions and wait for the guidance of the outside market to test whether the main force of Shanghai Copper can recover the 50,000 yuan mark.
Aluminum: Shanghai Aluminum main Company today position and trading volume are changed month to 1901 contract. The main company 1901 contract was opened at the highest price of 13935 yuan / ton in the morning, and was slightly lower than 13885 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day, and climbed slightly at the end of the first trading stage. The second trading stage basically revolves around 13915 yuan / ton first line narrow range shock, the fluctuation range does not exceed 20 yuan / ton. Daily trading closed at 13915 yuan per ton, trading volume increased by 12888 hands to 107000 hands, and position volume increased by 3116 hands to 245000 hands, up 0 yuan / ton, up 0%. The Shanghai Aluminum Index rose 10 yuan / ton, or 0.07%, to close at the Xiaoyang line. The daily KDJ line has an upward trend, and the MACD green line becomes shorter. Today, the overall trend is standing above the daily average, the performance is slightly entangled and hovering, although the positive line has not recovered all yesterday's decline, judging from the current fundamentals and macro news, most of the short factors are expected to continue to test the 5-day moving average in the evening. Pay attention to the changes of surrounding metals and the game between bulls and bears of aluminum itself at night.
Zinc: Shanghai Zinc main 1901 contract opened at 21120 yuan / ton, long position reduction at the beginning of the day, Shanghai zinc exploration lower 21010 yuan / ton, 40-day EMA support appeared, Shanghai zinc returned to rise, around 21120 yuan / ton slightly consolidation after the impact of 21310 yuan / ton after the rise was suspended, under the multi-empty game, After a small decline in Shanghai zinc, once again high before the test, recorded an intraday high of 21320 yuan / ton, but the upward breakthrough kinetic energy is insufficient, Shanghai zinc fell back, around 21200 yuan / ton narrow range concussion to the close. It rose 21210 yuan per ton, or 1.29 percent, from the close of the previous session, with trading volume up 74490 to 355000 and positions up 1714 to 173000. Shanghai zinc harvest, attached to the shadow line test 5-day moving average, under the multi-empty game, the bulls temporarily stand on the peak, backfill part of the other day decline, the recent closing of the import window makes the subsequent import zinc inflow is relatively limited, the low inventory pattern has not changed in the short term. Zinc price is still supported, Shanghai zinc evening or 5-day EMA pressing strength.
Lead: within a day, the main 1812 contract of Shanghai lead opened at 18595 yuan / ton. Shanghai lead was dominated by weak shocks throughout the day. At the beginning of the day, some of the long heads escaped from the market. Shanghai lead dived slightly, fell below the 10-day moving average, and the center of gravity moved down during the day. After that, the 18490 yuan / ton platform stabilized and consolidated. In the afternoon, the market bearish mood increased, Shanghai lead concussion went down, and the concussion platform moved down to 18426 yuan per ton line. Shanghai lead was finally reported at 18420 yuan per ton, down 315 yuan / ton, down 1.68 percent. Positions were reduced by 3570 to 50836, and trading volume narrowed day by day. The lead in Shanghai has been closed barefoot, the upward trend of each EMA has been suspended, and the lead in Shanghai has officially entered the return period. However, the social lead inventory and the warehouse receipt in the previous period are all at a low level, supporting the lead price, and the lead correction in Shanghai is limited. It is expected that lead in Shanghai at night or continue the trend of weak shock.
Tin: last night Shanghai Tin 1901 contract once touched 144740 yuan / ton, the center of gravity continued to decline slightly; Today's opening of 145080 yuan / ton, supported by long positions and short positions, rose during the day, hitting as high as 145980 yuan / ton in late trading, and finally closing at 145950 yuan / ton, up 680yuan / ton from the closing price of the previous day. 15376 hands were sold, and 34124 positions were increased by 80 hands. Today, Shanghai stock market metal ups and downs, Shanghai tin low rose and recovered the 5-day moving average, supported by the improvement of the market supply side, is expected to continue to test the strong trend of shock, resistance of 147000 yuan / ton.