[market voice] lead prices outshine inventory and production costs of recycled lead are still strongly supported

SMM10 25 news: today Shanghai lead main contract 1812 continued to rise after the opening of trading, the highest hit 18455 yuan / ton, by the end of the day closed up 1.43%. In response to the rise in lead prices today, SMM interviewed relevant people in the industry, and most analysts believe that demand in the lead market has been boosted by low SHFE lead stocks and higher start-up rates for lead-acid battery companies. In addition, environmental protection inspection in Anhui, Henan and other places and other factors to support the rise in lead prices.

Jin Rui Futures / Luo Ping: the impact of imported lead has been suspended, and unlicensed enterprises in some areas have been shut down due to the lower profits of recycled lead, so the price difference of primary regenerated lead has narrowed. At present, the spot rising water is stable, the channel inventory is low, it is estimated that the short-term price will be supported. Although domestic prices have risen, but the increase in positions is not obvious, capital intervention is not much, in the consumer peak season to the off-season transition period, estimated to be cautious.

Citic Futures / Yang Li: the Central Environmental Protection Supervision team has been stationed in Jiyuan, Henan Province, for a period of one month. From the supply side, the new capacity of recycled lead has been released, but the phased supply shortage still exists. From the aspects of increasing and decreasing production capacity of lead concentrate in main lead mines at home and abroad, low operation of domestic lead concentrate TC and imported ore TC, output and import volume, starting rate of primary lead smelting enterprises, the problem of stage supply shortage still exists in lead market. Shanghai and Guangdong social inventory is in a state of de-inventory, and the supply of raw lead and recycled lead continues to be affected by environmental protection, so that Shanghai and Guangdong stocks remain low, as a whole, Shanghai lead is easy to rise and fall, perhaps in the near future there will be an explosive market.

Guangzhou Futures / Li Jun: since October, with the increase in the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises, the demand of the lead market has been boosted, and from a policy point of view, the environmental protection inspection in Anhui is still being carried out. Henan Province opened the environmental protection inspection on the 23rd. Renewable lead supply is limited, demand is better superimposed supply is restricted, resulting in a gradual decline in inventories, the current inventory is already low, which may provide upward momentum for lead prices, Shanghai lead 1812 contract is expected to strengthen, look up to the 18800 line.

According to SMM, from a fundamental point of view, the production of some small and medium-sized recycled lead refineries began to hit the cost line, and at present, there has been a shutdown of production in reductive lead refineries, and the environmental protection inspectors of the Henan Provincial CPC Committee and Provincial Government have started in an all-round way, under the heavy pressure of environmental protection. Henan refineries may have production restrictions, under the premise of low inventory, Henan can be delivered refineries mainly, such as production restrictions or lead to the emergence of the warehouse market. Looking ahead to November, there may be three kinds of trading logic in the market: tight supply at the mine end, release of recycled lead production capacity, and comprehensive launch of environmental protection inspectors of the Henan provincial party committee and provincial government. It is expected that the main trading logic for the next four quarters will be on the supply side of lead ingots, and there will be strong support at the level of lead prices in November.