SMM10, 17 March: president Trump's coming to power is seen as an accident. The potato that has taken over for two years now seems to be getting hotter and hotter. Is the real estate developer Trump really enough to deal with a potential crisis in the United States? I don't think so.

Last week, the U. S. stock market suffered Black Wednesday, after falling on Thursday, followed by global stock markets in the street, capital markets panic.

In times of crisis, the market saw Trump shelling the Fed three times a week, accusing the Fed of being too aggressive and making a big mistake, as if to blame the Fed for the stock market crash, but the market did not buy it. Helpless, U. S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin appeared to rescue the market. Mr Mnuchin, a former Goldman executive whose father and brother held key positions at Goldman, has been at Goldman for more than 17 years, experienced and calm. His speech was really high, and the stock market finally turned red on Friday, stopping the decline.

First, he talked about the strength of the US economy, but inflation is still manageable. In other words, the fundamentals of the US economy have not changed, inflation is not out of control, and interest rate increases will not be too hasty.

Second, the two-day collapse in US stocks is a natural correction. That is to say, the stock market up and down is too normal, this is the natural behavior of the market, very normal.

Third, the US bond yield curve is also normal, and the yield curve is expected to return to normal. The surge in Treasury yields is the root cause of the stock market crash, and it is not easy to solve the Treasury problem because it involves the Federal Reserve.

Fourth, Trump's criticism undermines the Fed's independence. In other words, Trump's criticism is critical, the Fed has its own principles, will not be disturbed by Trump, and there is no need to panic too much.

Mr Mnuchin is a true master, and his comments are clearly thoughtful, giving not only a reassurance to the market, but also a round to the president, and the stock market crisis has temporarily dissipated with the arrival of the weekend. Had it not been for this exuberance, the bombardment would have only led to a bigger fall in the stock market. In front of the White House, the White House is full of hawks. According to incomplete statistics, the number of people who have left the White House since President Trump took office is no less than 40. All that can be left behind is Trump standing in line. We can see that Trump is still lack of effective GanJiang in times of crisis.

II. There is a crack in the relationship between the United States and its former ally, Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi journalist Kashuji incident continued to ferment over the weekend. Kashuji, a columnist for the Washington Post in the United States, opposes the Saudi government, often attacks Saudi Arabia in columns and on his own Twitter, opposes the autocracy of the Saudi royal family, and calls for democracy. Since moving to the United States last year, the Saudi consulate in Turkey disappeared not long ago, and there has been speculation that it may have been assassinated by Saudi Arabia. Trump said the U. S. government attaches great importance to the case, if Kashuji was killed in the consulate, the United States will impose "severe punishment" on Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is not to be outdone, Saudi state media said in an English-language comment on Sunday that if the United States sanctioned Saudi Arabia over the journalists incident, it would mean that oil prices could soar to $200 a barrel and the world would face economic disaster. The implication is that if the United States dares to impose sanctions on Saudi Arabia, then Saudi Arabia will let the world suffer with it. This is a naked Saudi kidnapping. Once the United States really imposes sanctions, it is entirely possible to ignite another oil crisis. It will be enough to devour the fruits of economic development in any oil-hungry country.

Bob Kirk, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said that he consulted information obtained by US intelligence agencies and that "nine times out of ten" Kashuji was killed on the same day he entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey. U.S. Senator Chris Murphy says if Saudi Arabia does lure an American resident into the consulate and kill him, the United States needs to reconsider its relations with Saudi Arabia.

It is well known that the United States and Saudi Arabia have always been very good allies in cooperation. The United States provides military protection to ensure Saudi Arabia's leadership in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia uses US dollars to settle oil and guarantee the global supremacy of the US dollar. The journalist incident can be said to have torn apart the relations between the two countries. For Trump, what he can't put down is the huge arms sales orders with Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia does not buy weapons from the United States, it will turn to Russia, and Saudi Arabia can stop its huge investment in the United States. That's what Trump doesn't want to see. Moreover, once sanctions are chosen, Saudi Arabia will certainly join the dedollarization camp to retaliate against the United States, then the status of petrodollars will be in jeopardy, the share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves will continue to decline, and the US debt sell-off frenzy will continue to unfold. This will be an unprecedented crisis for the dollar.

Three。 The snowball of American debt is getting bigger and bigger

In addition, the snowball of US government bonds has become bigger and bigger. According to the latest figures from the US Treasury Department, the US government's debt reached an all-time high of $21.52 trillion at the end of September, and interest payments this year were $523 billion, surpassing Belgium's GDP; in 2017. The U. S. government deficit reached $779 billion in fiscal 2018, the highest since 2012.

After the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the Federal Reserve went through three rounds of frenzied expansion, claiming to be throwing money away from helicopters, gradually pulling the United States out of the quagmire through low interest rates and loose monetary policy, US stocks ushered in a 10-year bull market, and the growth rate of the US economy exceeded 4 percent. Unemployment is at a new low in nearly 50 years, but behind the apparent prosperity of the US economy, debt and bubbles have become bigger and bigger, and once the bubble is punctured as a result of raising interest rates and shrinking the table too quickly, the consequences will be unthinkable. Ron Paul, a veteran of US politics and a former Republican congressman, said in a recent interview that it was only a matter of time before the United States was moving faster and faster towards a potential recession and market collapse. Unsurprisingly, Trump has two years left in office and is likely to have a crisis at any time in two years. In the face of the contradiction between economic development and monetary tightening, it takes a great deal of wisdom to avoid the next financial crisis. This may be the biggest problem Mr Trump faces.