SMM, Oct. 16: on Tuesday, the domestic financial market was shrouded in haze, and a large area of the futures market fell. Non-ferrous plates fluttered green in a large area, Shanghai nickel, Shanghai zinc fell by more than 2%. Black coke continued to fall back to close down 2.51%, steel performance is relatively strong.
Domestic inflation figures released earlier were in line with market expectations, with CPI up 2.5 per cent year-on-year and in the "second era" for the third month in a row, with PPI growth falling 0.5 percentage points from the previous month to a six-month low. At present, the risk in the domestic financial market has not yet been fully released, and the focus of market attention has shifted to China's macro data on Friday, including China's GDP in the third quarter and industrial value added in September, real estate investment and other data.
In terms of capital flows today
Domestic goods are in deep trouble, most of the commodity funds show a net outflow, and the Wenhua commodity index was abandoned by 1.98 billion funds. Among them, the deeper decline of the non-ferrous plate outflow of 581 million, the chemical sector lost 318 million of the favor of funds, oil chain and feed plate also lost more than 300, 000
A brief comment by SMM analyst on Oct. 16
Copper: today, the main 1811 contract of Shanghai copper opened at 50460 yuan / ton in the morning, and the short position was reduced at the beginning of the day. The copper price quickly went up to the intraday high of 50550 yuan / ton and fell back, followed by a narrow range of 50415 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, London copper fell rapidly, Shanghai copper quickly fell 50130 yuan / ton, in late trading, copper prices along the narrow range of 50200 yuan / ton finishing, closed at 50190 yuan / ton, down 590 yuan / ton, down 1.16%. Today is the first trading day after the month. The 1811 contract is both the main contract and the current month's contract. The position of the 1811 contract is reduced by 9710 to 169000, and the transaction is reduced by 2304 to 150000. During the day, the total position of the main force and the next month contract was reduced by 12454 hands, and the price difference was expanded to around 130 yuan / ton. Today, the Shanghai copper index outflow funds of 441 million yuan, located at the top of the non-ferrous sector outflow funds, mainly to the main contract long position reduction, the Shanghai copper index total position is relatively low, fell to 542000 hands, indicating that the market is cautious. Today, Shanghai copper main bulls lack confidence, the center of gravity fell to the 10-day moving average near, lost 10-day moving average support, MACD red energy column showed a narrowing trend, KDJ opening expanded, waiting for the outside guidance at night, test whether Shanghai copper can hold the 50000 yuan / ton mark.
Zinc: within a day, the main 1811 contract of Shanghai zinc was opened at, 22475 yuan / ton. With the release of macro bearish, the bullish mood of Shanghai zinc was suppressed, and the gap was more flat at the beginning of the day. After the opening of Shanghai zinc trading, the center of gravity quickly sank to about 22370 yuan / ton for a narrow range of consolidation. In the afternoon, more into the air level speed up, Shanghai zinc fall lower 22085 yuan / ton, relatively low, coupled with the current basic positive situation has not been reversed, short plate tail cautious profit closing position, Shanghai zinc small repair. The final closing fell to 22240 yuan / ton, down 315yuan / ton, or 1.4%, from the previous day. The position decreased by 19264 hands to 169000 hands, while the trading volume increased by 26950 hands to 530000 hands. SHFE zinc warehouse receipts and social inventories in the three places have shown a substantial increase, coupled with the rapid backward shift of positions this week, the risk of contract positions in that month has weakened, and the bearish interpretation of the external environment has caused the Shanghai Zinc 5-day EMA to breakdown down the 10-day EMA support. Zinc prices have ushered in adjustment after the accumulation, but the current market multi-space game is still showing glue, within the day Shanghai zinc test 22000 gate got strong support, it is expected that Shanghai zinc will be slightly repaired in the evening, running in the 5-10-day EMA channel.
Lead: within a day, the Shanghai lead 1811 contract was opened at 18890 yuan / ton. Shanghai lead fluctuated broadly below the daily average all day. At the beginning of the day, the main force of Shanghai lead once wanted to pull up the lead price, but the non-ferrous metals collectively weakened and Shanghai lead was involved in a straight line diving, and then stabilized at 18770 yuan / ton. With the bullish sentiment of the market getting stronger, the Shanghai lead shock rebounded and briefly consolidated around the 18850 yuan / ton platform, then dragged down by Shanghai zinc, and then stabilized and consolidated at 18740 yuan / ton, with some short sellers leaving the market. Shanghai lead picked up again, nearing the close, some bulls chose to drop bags for safety, so that Shanghai lead dived again, finally reported at 18750 yuan / ton, down 125 yuan / ton, down 0.66%, and the position decreased by 2436 hands to 52146 hands, and the trading volume narrowed day by day. Shanghai lead closed in the negative line, 5, 10 days EMA upward trend slows down, peak signs appear, there may be a pullback in the near future, Shanghai lead is expected at night or continue the trend of weak shocks.
Aluminum: the 1812 contract of Shanghai Aluminum main Company opened at 14215 yuan / ton in the morning. At the beginning of the day, with the help of a Changyang line, it reached a daily minimum price of 14205 yuan / ton, followed by a narrow range of concussion around 14245 yuan / ton. During the period, it briefly touched 14275 yuan / ton. After the fluctuation range gradually expanded, Shanghai aluminum along the 5-day moving average hit the highest daily price of 14295 yuan / ton, but slightly softened at the end of the day. The daily market closed at 14245 yuan / ton, up 5 yuan / ton, or 0.04%. Trading volume increased by 33906 hands to 162000 hands, and position volume decreased by 5744 hands to 222000 hands, closing at the small positive line, and the decline of the weekly MACD line slowed slightly. After touching 10,000 hurdles in the shock of Shanghai aluminum last night, it today showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. In the case of almost all the basic metals floating green, Shanghai aluminum changed its passive attitude and did not follow up and fell, leaving with the help of the short part in the early stage. Shanghai aluminum took advantage of the trend to recover some of the decline, but the rebound is still limited, still below the 60-day line, is expected to continue to test the 5-day moving average in the evening, and continue to pay attention to the external market and fundamentals in the evening.