Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (September 25, 2018.28)

SMM, September 28 / PRNewswire-Asianet /-

In the spot market, the rising water continued to fall back this week. After the festival, due to the final delivery date of the long order, the holder is still priced at 50 yuan per ton to 120 yuan per ton of water, but the high-level cargo holder is willing to become stronger when the exchange is high, but downstream is afraid of high sentiment and maintains rigid demand. Under the guidance of the rapid price reduction of next month's tickets, the overall quotation of the market dropped rapidly. With the approach of the holiday a week later, the holders gave priority to risk aversion to clear inventory, showing an obvious mood of selling goods for cash. In the case of weak trading in the concentration of throwing goods, The transaction participation of traders decreased, the supply exceeded the demand obviously, and the rising water quickly decreased to 40 yuan / ton to 20 yuan / ton. Near the last trading day, the copper futures market fell back, downstream bargain buying slightly improved.

Aluminum: earlier this week, due to trade frictions between China and the United States, prices began to fall from last week's highs, and then as Rusal set up a sales team in China to attract some of the positive funds to buy the aluminum in Shanghai, the bulls pushed up some of the losses. But there was later news that Rusal sanctions would continue until the end of November, while the cost of overseas alumina prices fell by nearly $90, cost-side support loosened, Lun Aluminum lost upward momentum and began to fall. The subsequent Fed rate hike and the good performance of data such as the final value of the second quarter GDP annualized quarterly rate in the United States made the dollar index rise by 95 percent in the face of a sharp fall in the euro, curbing the upward trend in aluminum prices. Lun Aluminum recorded a long negative line and recorded its lowest price in the week of US $2016 / ton in late trading. As of 17:20, Lun Aluminum closed at US $2021 / ton, down US $3.50 / ton, down 0.17%, and trading volume decreased by 16009 hands to 50498 hands. Position increased by 11104 hands to 678000 hands, recorded three consecutive Yin, the recent transaction atmosphere is on the short side, waiting for other news release guidance on the 5-day moving average.

This week, Shanghai Aluminum basically took a unilateral downward road, with the concentrated release of short news, stopping at the 14300 yuan / ton gate. Affected by the news of the formal implementation of Sino-US trade tariffs at the beginning of the week, Shanghai Aluminum changed its four Lianyang trend and began to decline, followed by news that Rusal wanted to set up a sales team in China to operate Russian production of aluminum ingots. Shanghai Aluminum fell sharply by the news. Then, against the backdrop of the sharp rise in the US dollar index, the official document on production restrictions during the heating season was released, indicating that the intensity of production restrictions was not as strong as in previous years. Aluminum prices again recorded a long negative line, piercing the 60-day moving average, and the departure of bullish risk aversion funds before the festival led to a further decline in aluminum prices. It fell below 14300 yuan / ton, the lowest price in 14275 yuan / ton in a week, and was located on the lower track of piercing Brin Channel. This week, the 1811 contract of Shanghai Aluminum Company ended at 14310 yuan / ton, with trading volume reduced by 370000 to 695000, and position by 34722 to 215000. The daily K line recorded four consecutive overcast, the weekly KDJ line was down, and there was no night trading on Friday. We need to pay close attention to the multi-empty news game during the holiday period and wait for the guidance of Lun Aluminum.

In the spot market, the transaction price in East China this week was concentrated at 14270 yuan / ton to 14550 yuan / ton, and the spot price fell by more than 100 yuan for two consecutive days near the weekend. The discount for the current month was concentrated at 50 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton, and the holder made greater efforts to ship the goods in the early stage. The enthusiasm of receiving goods before the festival has improved, and it has weakened over the weekend, but on the whole, the market circulation source is still abundant, and the willingness of low aluminum traders to ship goods has been affected, and the transaction this week is not as active as that of previous years.

Lead: this week, lead has not changed the weak pattern, down along the 5-day EMA, technically, all the EMA shows a downward trend, the trend of the technical bear market, may continue to attract short trend funds into the layout. At the beginning of the week, before the latest US tariffs on China came into effect, the Sino-US negotiations originally scheduled for this week were cancelled, and the market was worried that global trade tensions would escalate again, resulting in a continuous weakening of Lun and lead, with a cumulative decline of 2.44 percent. The upper pressure averages, after Thursday, Lun lead inertia weakened, once bottomed to 1973 US dollars / ton, near the end of trading, the main force forced up the price, made up for some of the decline, closed a long under the shadow line, giving the market a signal to stop falling and stabilize. As of Friday, Lun lead was at $2018.5 a tonne, down 1.08 per cent a week.

This week, the shock of the Shanghai lead 1811 contract weakened, breaking the moving averages one after another, the downward trend formed, and confidence in long capital positions in the market was hit frequently. In addition, during the domestic suspension period, the external market was normally traded. Judging from the economic data and the recent trade situation between China and the United States, The market is worried about macro or renewable waves, the outside market will inevitably be dragged down, to return after the festival, Shanghai lead will inevitably follow the trend, the above two aspects, to promote a large number of capital flight before the festival, risk aversion. In the first four days, lead in Shanghai suffered a series of sharp falls, with a cumulative decline of 3.44 percent, once refreshing a new low of 17760 yuan per ton in September. On Friday, Shanghai lead walked out of an anti-enveloping positive line, and the market bearish mood eased somewhat, but from the perspective of capital flow, Most of them were short positions and left the market, and active buying was scarce. As of Friday, lead in Shanghai closed at 18160 yuan per ton, down 0.71 per cent a week.

Lead prices fell one after another this week, spot lead mainstream trading range of 18500 to 1895 yuan / ton. According to SMM, the lead battery market consumption is OK, the storage enterprise production is active, coupled with the National Day holiday approaching, the downstream storage enterprises are more than the pre-festival reserve; On the other hand, due to the regional tension of the original lead refinery, the supply of bulk order in the refinery is less, at the same time, the price of lead in the refinery is weak, the bulk order of the refinery is sold at a low price, and the quotation maintains the average price of SMM1# electrolytic lead to 150 yuan / ton. The trade market is also due to the limited supply of goods, and the downstream delivery is active, the domestic lead quotation for the Shanghai lead 1810 contract water 300 to 350 yuan / ton; In addition, due to the regional environmental protection, the downstream reserve and the shortage of primary lead supply in Hunan, the downstream demand for recycled lead has been narrowed, and the average price of electrolytic lead in SMM1# has been quoted as 50 yuan / ton.

Zinc: this week, Len Zinc stands firm in all averages, and the platform runs smoothly. At the beginning of the week, during the independent operation of zinc, it easily broke through the integer pressure level of US $2500 per ton, and further measured the upper track of Brin Road. After touching US $2563 per ton, the record was able to fall back to the film line for a long time, with a drop of US $2481.5 per ton. The space for up and down was established, and then, driven by macro events and investor pre-festival sentiment, Len Zinc ran by a concussion of $40 per tonne, with a center of gravity of $2520 per tonne, and the physical column steadied all averages. As of Thursday, trading volume fell by about 8151 hands to about 48127 hands, and positions increased by about 3607 hands to about 266000 hands.

National Day holiday is coming, the capital light warehouse festival, squeeze the warehouse storm to come to an end temporarily, Shanghai zinc main center of gravity gradually falls back. At the beginning of the week, some short positions closed out, but there were still residual waves in which capital increased positions entered the field to catch up with the "squeeze" storm. Shanghai Zinc recorded a V-shaped reversal, and recorded a high of 21980 yuan per ton in the week. Fenggao long gradually closed the position and left the game, and Shanghai Zinc fell rapidly. After a brief pause of 21600 yuan / ton, it was found to be as low as 21375 yuan / ton. However, the current situation of low inventory has not improved, the expectation of a deep decline in Shanghai zinc is limited, some short positions leave the market, Shanghai zinc returns to 21600 yuan / ton finishing operation, and some of the funds are short-term test. However, the contradiction between long and empty is still fierce, and a V-shaped reversal was recorded when the zinc exploration in Shanghai was lower than 21200 yuan / ton. As of Thursday, trading volume in the Shanghai zinc index fell by about 1.859 million hands to about 3.12 million hands, and positions by about 12916 hands to about 488000 hands.

This week, the contract of 0 # zinc to Shanghai zinc 1810 in Shanghai market has changed from 200 yuan / ton to 20 yuan / ton to 60 yuan / ton. 0 # Shuangyan changed from 250 yuan / ton to 300 yuan / ton in October because of the tight amount of liquidity. The imported KZ, SMC, Spain, Russia, Brazil than 0 # domestic zinc discount 380-discount 140 yuan / ton to discount 290-discount 40 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, due to the last trading day of the long order, the market raised the price and shipped the goods, and the quotation remained relatively high at 240 to 270 yuan per tonne. However, after the end of the long single trading, as the long holiday was coming, traders actively cleared the stock. Spot water quickly fell to 70 to 90 yuan / ton, traders mostly with the downstream reserve demand into the market procurement, the rise of water profit is less likely to occur. However, at the beginning of the week, due to the rising water and the disk surface, the demand for downstream stock was not fully released, and in the second half of the week, because the reserve warehouse entered the final stage, and the rising water level of the disk and the spot dropped at the same time, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement was improved. The overall transaction was significantly better than at the beginning of the week, and the overall transaction was slightly better than last week.

This week, the Guangdong 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc main force 1811 contract changed from 950 yuan per ton to 280 yuan per ton last week, narrowing by about 150 yuan per ton. Compared with the Shanghai market, the discount in Guangdong has expanded from 60 yuan per ton last week to 110 yuan per ton. Zinc in this cycle is running at a relatively high level, refineries ship normally, traders actively clear inventory before the festival, the willingness to ship is strong, and the amount of market deflation is abundant. And the downstream near the long holiday, although the zinc price is high, inhibit some of the interest in buying, but there is still some rigid demand reserve, the market volume has improved compared with last week. On the whole, the market transaction atmosphere this week improved compared with last week, and the transaction volume increased slightly compared with last week.

This week, the discount of 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1810 contract in Tianjin market is about 200 yuan per ton. This week, the rising water in Tianjin has continued to narrow down, about 210 yuan per ton compared with last Friday. The price difference between Tianjin and Shanghai narrowed from 190 yuan per ton on Friday to about 150 yuan per ton. Near the National Day holiday, coupled with the greater financial pressure at the end of the month, traders have cleared inventory and dumped goods at a low price one after another. in addition, recently, as Zijin refineries recovered from maintenance and concentrated delivery of goods, the quotation for Zijin brand zinc ingots gradually went down. Downstream replenishment more favor Zijin brand zinc ingots, while other brands shipment is relatively poor, promoting the discount to further expand. On the consumption side, the reserve bank downstream this week is mostly concentrated on Thursday and Friday, and the overall transaction of the market is better than that of last week.

Tin: this week Lunxi is still unable to get rid of the trend characteristics of almost horizontal consolidation, with an overall operating range of $18800 to $19000 / ton, closing at $18885 / ton on Thursday, down $105 / ton from last Thursday. The total number of transactions decreased by 676 hands compared with last week, and the position of 15391 hands decreased by 7 hands. The dollar rose sharply to line 95 on Thursday, its biggest one-day gain in nearly seven weeks, after the Fed raised interest rates as scheduled and previous data underpinned the view that the US economy was strong, and Italian budget concerns weakened the euro. The dollar moves to force the trend of Lunxi.

The trend of the main tin 1901 contract in Shanghai this week was suppressed and then rose, falling below the 40-day moving average in the first half of the week. On Thursday and Friday, boosted by expectations that the Gejiu concentrator was nearing the final shutdown day, short positions were continuously reduced, and bulls were attracted to enter the market at a low price. It rose on Thursday and Friday, especially on Thursday, up 1.48% on a one-day basis, hitting as high as 148840 yuan per ton on Friday morning, but the bulls were more cautious, mainly short, and then fell back slightly. Friday closed at 147970 yuan per ton, up 570 yuan per ton from Friday. The total number of transactions decreased by 48866 hands compared with that of last week, and the position of 30026 hands decreased by 2386 hands compared with that of last week.

Prices in the Shanghai tin market rose sharply in the second half of the week, with mainstream trading of 145500 to 147500 yuan / ton as of Friday, up 1000 yuan / ton from Friday. Although this week is a week before the National Day holiday, but the market did not show a clear pre-festival reserve atmosphere, especially after the price rise, trading is more light, only spawned the replenishment demand of some arbitrageurs. Some holders, due to the demand for funds before the festival, actively cut prices, but the trading is still mediocre. On Thursday and Friday, Shanghai tin rose strongly above 148000 yuan / ton, and the market discount expanded, but the price and discount were more chaotic. The overall discount range was 1000 to 3000 yuan / ton, and the Yunxi discount was 1000 to 1, 500 yuan / ton. Ordinary cloud word sticker about 2000 yuan / ton, small brand sticker 2500 to 3000 yuan / ton.

Nickel: the center of gravity continues to move downward throughout the week. Boosted by the fire at the BHP nickel smelter on Friday, the nickel price rose sharply, and immediately lowered on Monday. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper 40 antennas were loaded with 40 antennas, and the range was fluctuated. On Thursday, the center of gravity of nickel and Lun continued to fall, supported by 12500 US dollars per ton below, driven by a sharp rise in the US dollar. Call back on Friday, 20 antenna support below. As of 16:10, the week's K line closed at the big shade line, down 4.48 percent at $12680 a tonne. Trading volume decreased by 14000 hands to 29000 hands, and position volume increased by 7109 hands to 240000 hands.

Shanghai nickel closed on Monday in the Mid-Autumn Festival, and its center of gravity moved slightly upward on Tuesday, bearing a pressure of 106000 yuan per ton. The second half of the week was weighed down by the strength of the dollar and the center of gravity shifted downward. In the near future, the disturbance of macro factors gradually weakened, and the nickel price gradually returned to the supply and demand side. On the supply side, a large amount of Russian nickel has recently flowed into China, and at the same time, the downstream Guangqing science and technology plain carbon steel has been converted to stainless steel, which has increased from 100000 to 170000 per month. Zhangpu of Taiyuan Iron and Steel Company has finished maintenance, and the output of stainless steel has gradually increased. By the close of trading on Friday morning, the Zhou K line closed at the Xiao Yin line, down 0.31% at 104550 yuan / ton. Trading volume was reduced by 1.525 million hands to 1.78 million hands, and positions by 74000 hands to 184000 hands.

This week, Russian nickel rose 180 yuan / ton per week compared with Wuxi 1810 contract week, about 200yuan / ton narrower than last week, mainly due to the continuous inflow of Russian nickel into the spot market, at the same time, near the end of the month, the capital is tight, less goods are taken downstream, and the inventory is increased. This week, Jinchuan nickel increased water by about 6700 yuan / ton compared with Wuxi 1810 contract week, which was 400 yuan / ton larger than that of last week. Mainly due to Jinchuan company in August and September maintenance, the overall volume has been reduced, resulting in Jinchuan tight supply, rising water expansion. The spread between Jinchuan and Russian nickel has widened significantly from 6000 yuan per ton last week to about 6500 yuan per ton, the largest price gap in nearly three years. In terms of transactions, this week, due to adequate replenishment in the early downstream, and the end of the month capital pressure, take goods is not active, the spot market transactions in general, more downstream in the wait and see. This week Jinchuan nickel supply is still in short supply, traders have less goods, mainly downstream electroplating alloy delivery. The overall deal this week is not as good as last week. The quoted price of Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai was the same as that of 110, 500 yuan per ton last Friday.

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