Weekly Review of spot Trading of SMM basic Metals (September 17, 2018.21)

SMM, September 21 / PRNewswire-Asianet /-

Affected by the weakness of the market this week, after the decline at the beginning of the week showed a consolidation pattern, the mainstream trading range of spot lead in 18900 to 19200 yuan / ton. According to SMM, the downstream battery market is in the peak consumption season, coupled with the approach of the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day, battery enterprises have been low reserve storage; However, the source of bulk goods in the original lead refinery is limited. At the beginning of the week, because of the low price, the price of the discount gradually narrowed, and even the pre-sale occurred. By Friday, the average price of electrolytic lead in SMM1# was equal to 150yuan / ton. At the same time, after delivery in the trade market, the source of goods flowed out less, and the holders shipped more at a high price. The domestic lead was reported to the Shanghai lead 1810 contract to increase the water by 300 yuan to 400 yuan per ton. In addition, recycled lead is also due to improved demand, as of Friday reported to the average price of SMM1# electrolytic lead discount of about 100 yuan / ton, some areas can reach flat water.

Zinc: this week, zinc Wulian Yang went up unilaterally, reversing the decline and breaking through the 40-day line pressure level. At the beginning of the week, with the landing of 200 billion tariffs, China launched 60 billion countertariffs, the biggest negative side of the market was completely released, and there was an emotional backlash in the market, in which zinc absorbed more funds and got rid of the role of short allocation. Since the low position of US $2290 / ton, the "squeeze" of Shanghai zinc has become more and more intense, and the short position has been closed to provide thrust. The Lun Zinc has broken the 5-day line, 10-day line, 20-day line, and then tested the strong pressure of the 40-day line. The sell-off tide of US bonds has caused the US Index to fall below the 94 mark. Len Zinc stood on its 40-day moving average, touching $2480 a tonne. As of Friday, the trading volume of Lun Zinc decreased by about 5790 hands to about 45379 hands, and the position decreased by about 7612 hands to about 260000 hands.

Under the background of low inventory this week, the risk of holding positions has been magnified, and funds have been sought after the main force of Shanghai zinc, Silianyang, to break through all the EMA suppression. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai zinc was still in a long-short game stalemate, and then the tariff fell to the ground, coupled with the 265 billion MLF investment, some of the short funds had fled, driving the Shanghai zinc to climb slightly, and then, based on the low inventory, the long funds strongly built into the market. Part of the hot money followed the trend into the market, the contract went against the trend and increased its position that month, and the risk of "crowding out" was magnified. Before the upward breakthrough of the Shanghai zinc warehouse, the high pressure reached 21820 yuan / ton. Friday, coinciding with the Mid-Autumn Festival short holiday, some of the hot money reduced the warehouse and left the market, and the Shanghai zinc rally was temporarily suspended. Consolidation in the vicinity of 21600 yuan / ton, but the contract short position closing strength is stronger, still strongly higher, the monthly difference expanded to nearly 900 yuan / ton. As of Friday, the trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc Index increased by about 588000 hands to about 4.858 million hands, and the position volume increased by about 70632 hands to about 517000 hands.

This week, the 0 # zinc to Shanghai zinc 1810 contract in Shanghai market has changed from 450 yuan / ton to 230 yuan / ton, and 0 # Shuangyan has changed from 550 yuan / ton to 280 yuan / ton in October. Imports of KZ, SMC, Spain, Russia, Brazil than 0 # domestic zinc self-discount 500-discount 350 yuan / ton narrowed to discount 320-discount 120 yuan / ton. This week, the willingness of refineries to ship gradually improved, and the market circulation became slightly looser. On the last day of delivery at the beginning of the week, due to the widening monthly difference, the domestic market quotation strongly increased to about 500 yuan per ton. In addition, the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday reduced the preparation time for long orders, and the demand for reserve stocks in the lower reaches of the week was released at the same time as the demand for long orders. However, the market continues to rise unilaterally, the receiver hesitates the market transaction is light, the spot rises the water to slide rapidly, the domestic transaction main contribution by the trader. This week, the quotations for imports of SMC and KZ changed little, while Spain, Peru, and Mexico expanded slightly from about Pingshui to about 80 yuan / ton of discount water, and the import price was lower than that of domestic ones, so that most of the downstream purchases were mainly imported. However, the rapid rise of zinc makes the downstream procurement reserve demand suppressed, import transactions are also weak, the overall transaction is not much different from last week.

This week, the Guangdong 0 # current zinc versus Shanghai zinc 1810 contract changed from 280 yuan per ton last week to 180 yuan per ton, narrowing by about 100 yuan per ton. This week, after the regular delivery of the Guangdong market, it was mainly quoted for the Shanghai zinc main force 1811 contract, and the water rise of the Shanghai zinc main force 1811 contract was around 950 yuan per ton. Compared with the Shanghai market, the discount in Guangdong has expanded from 30 yuan per ton last week to around 60 yuan per ton. Although the zinc in this cycle is gradually higher, the refinery is still bullish on zinc prices, some of which are sold sparingly, and the market arrival is relatively limited. On the other hand, traders are willing to ship goods at high zinc prices, and the amount of deflation in the market is still abundant. Due to the close of the long order, some traders have a good enthusiasm to receive goods because of the need of the long order, while some enterprises are in a state of suspension from Saturday to Monday due to the typhoon. Although the resumption of labor is close to the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, a little reserve intention, but the period of zinc continued to pull up, the downstream fear of high procurement is still relatively limited. Overall, market transactions this week were more modest, with a slight decline in transaction volume compared with last week.

This week, the rising water of 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1810 contract in Tianjin market is about 50 to 80 yuan / ton. This week, the rising water in Tianjin has been greatly narrowed, about 400 yuan / ton compared with last Friday. The price difference between Tianjin and Shanghai has changed from 130 yuan / ton on Friday to 190 yuan / ton of discount. Recently, at the end of the maintenance of the northern refinery, the storage volume has increased cumulatively, and the tight supply of goods in Tianjin has gradually become loose, and the carrier has actively shipped the goods and given up the high price, so the rising water has gone down sharply. In terms of consumption, at the beginning of the week, zinc was pulled up rapidly, and the buying mood downstream was more divided. Some downstream were afraid of leaving the market to wait and see, while the other downstream were afraid that zinc would go up again and have a reserve. After Thursday, the pressure to prepare for the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday was prominent. Although the absolute price is higher, but downstream enterprises still have some procurement, overall, the overall transaction this week is slightly better than last week.

Tin: Lunxi fell steadily in the first half of the week. Driven by a fall in the US dollar and a continuous rise in the tin market in Shanghai on Friday, the Asian session rose strongly, hitting the 40-day moving average as high as $18990 per ton on Thursday. It is down $70 a ton from last Thursday. The total turnover of 1317 hands increased by 184 hands over last week, and the position of 15398 hands decreased by 1137 hands. The dollar index tumbled this week, falling sharply on Thursday, hitting 93.793. 3. At a more than two-month low, the pound soared against the dollar to its highest level since July, against a backdrop of generally orderly positive developments in Brexit. Under the oppression of the pound, coupled with the easing of trade tensions between China and the United States, the dollar's safe haven status was tarnished and the US index fell sharply. The trend in the short term is expected to be supported by a weaker dollar.

The trend of the main tin 1901 contract in Shanghai this week was most eye-catching with the sharp fluctuation of falling first and then rising from Wednesday to Friday. The short position invaded heavily on Wednesday morning, and the Shanghai tin quickly dived to 142310 yuan / ton. After that, the profit short position quickly withdrew, and the Shanghai tin recovered the lost land. It rose sharply on Thursday and Friday, breaking through the 20-60 daily moving average, hitting a peak of 147500 yuan per ton and closing at 147400 yuan per ton on Friday, up 3480 yuan, or 2.4 per cent, from Friday. The total number of transactions increased by 17528 hands over last week, and the position of 32412 hands decreased by 2620 hands compared with last week. Thursday and Friday, the rise in Shanghai tin is mainly due to the reduction of profit short positions in the early period, not bulls into the market, whether it can be sustained or not, the resistance above Shanghai tin is 147500 yuan / ton, if it breaks through, it is expected to impact the resistance level of 150000 yuan / ton.

This week Shanghai tin market prices in the first half of the week as a whole stable, the mainstream 142500 144000 yuan / ton; Spot prices also continued to rise on Thursday and Friday, driven by successive surges in Shanghai tin, rising 1.6 per cent, or 2250 yuan per tonne, as of Friday's mainstream 144500146500 yuan / tonne. Tin rose sharply in Shanghai, due to the poor performance of market demand, and the range of discount was also expanded. On Friday, the mainstream discount in the market expanded to 1000 to 2500 yuan / ton, Yunxi discount to 1000 to 1200 yuan per ton, and ordinary Yunzi discount to 1500 to 1800 yuan per ton. Small brand discount 2000 to 2500 yuan / ton. The widening of the current price gap has also given birth to some set demand, compared with the lower travel demand release insipid, the overall consumption is general, only a little active short-term transactions. Driven by the futures price, the mainstream tin factories also actively raised their quotations, Yunxi, Chengfeng's quotations were raised to 146500 to 147000 yuan / ton.

Nickel: pessimism led to a fall in the external market to near the $12200 / tonne barrier on Monday, ahead of the Sino-US trade war. On Tuesday, China and the United States began to impose tariffs on each other, and the bearish mood eased somewhat, with the outer disk gradually revised up, standing on 20 antennas, close to the $12900 / ton mark, the highest level since September. As of 16:05, the week's K line closed at the Dayang line, up 4.19 percent at $12940 a ton. Trading volume was reduced by 8284 hands to 35000 hands, and positions by 4754 hands to 233000 hands.

Shanghai nickel trend with the outside market, the first half of the week continue to explore, fell below the 101000 yuan / ton barrier, quickly recovered. In the second half of the week, the center of gravity continued to be repaired, breaking the 105000 yuan / ton gate and standing on 20 antennas. In addition to the relief of macro concerns, LME nickel inventory has been reduced to a low level in nearly 4 years, domestic downstream large stainless steel have completed routine maintenance, demand is better expected, and NPI production is affected by the heating season, with uncertainty. By the close of trading on Friday morning, the Zhou K line closed at the small positive line, up 1.01% at 104870 yuan / ton. Trading volume increased by 44000 to 3.306 million, while position decreased by 14000 to 257000.

This week, Russian nickel rose 370yuan / ton per week compared with Wuxi 1810 contract week, a slight increase of 150yuan / ton over last week, mainly due to the gradual reduction of the amount of Russian nickel goods flowing into the spot market in the bonded area, and the continuous consumption of Russian and nickel goods in the spot market. This week, Jinchuan nickel is about 6300 yuan / ton higher than Wuxi 1810 contract week, 300 yuan / ton more than last week. Mainly due to Jinchuan company maintenance in August and September, the overall volume has been reduced, resulting in less and less supply of goods in Jinchuan, rising water expansion. The spread between Jinchuan and Russian nickel has widened significantly from 5800 yuan per ton last week to about 6000 yuan per ton, the largest price gap in nearly three years. Transaction, this week due to the continuous repair of the disk, the spot market transactions in general, downstream goods are not active, more in the wait and see. This week Jinchuan nickel supply is still in short supply, traders have less goods, mainly downstream electroplating alloy delivery. The overall deal this week is not as good as last week. The quotation for Jinchuan nickel in Shanghai was raised to 110500 yuan / ton from 109,800 yuan / ton last Friday, a cumulative increase of 700 yuan / ton.

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