Minutes of the SMM aluminum morning meeting on September 17: overnight the rise of the US index intertwined with a variety of factors affecting the trend of Shanghai aluminum

9.17 minutes of SMM aluminum morning meeting

Volatility: the dollar index rose overnight, with metals falling at the start of the day. Possible reasons for the index's gains include:

1) the previous value of retail sales data was revised up sharply, suggesting strong economic growth in the third quarter of the United States;

2) pay attention to the volatility of the US index before the Fed meeting (9.25-9.26);

3) the production limit for the heating season is still awaiting the announcement of the government.

4) pay attention to the domestic policy of self-provided power plants except Shandong

Point of view: the current aluminum market fundamentals have not changed much, the market for the heating season may be loose production expectations have been released ahead of time, the lower space is limited, 1811 contract below the 60-day moving average of 14500 yuan / ton gate has a strong supporting role. However, attention needs to be paid to the impact of the above macro and news changes on the market.