SMM8, March 28: according to SMM, since August 27, Weiqiao suppliers have begun to negotiate the purchase price of pre-baked anodes in September. At present, there is still a big dispute between the two sides, and Weiqiao's proposed increase of 220 yuan per ton was rejected by all carbon plants. The specific purchase price of prebaked anode is still in the negotiation stage and there are no accurate results. Today, as the only pre-baked anode in the country, the only listed company in the Sotong display plate once rose, and then stopped trading to maintain a high shock, as of the close is still up 9.05%.
In terms of cost: the cost of raw materials for prebaked anode in July, the cash cost is 2950-3150 yuan / ton, and the complete cost is 3050-3650 yuan / ton. At the end of August, that is, at the end of August, the cost of petroleum coke rose by more than 300 yuan per ton, asphalt by more than 400 yuan per ton, and the cash cost of pre-baked anode increased by 335 yuan per ton to 3305 to 3505 yuan per ton. The reason for the rise in the price of petroleum coke and asphalt is that the pressure of environmental protection is increasing, and the other is that these two products belong to chemical products and are also highly polluting industries, which are subject to production restrictions during the heating season. So the prices of both will go up in the coming heating season.
On the demand side: with the advent of the heating season, aluminum plants have begun to stock up, and the increase in demand has directly led to a rise in the price of prebaked anodes.
As the largest commercial prebaked anode purchasing enterprise in China, Weiqiao has always been the weather vane of prebaked anode price. In the past two years, domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises have formed the habit of pricing according to the monthly purchase price of Weiqiao. In the first half of the year, due to the high stock of pre-baked anode in Weiqiao, the purchase price fell continuously for as long as July, from 4500 yuan / ton to 3100 yuan / ton in July. In order to reduce the loss, the prebaked anode enterprises continue to reduce the supply of Weiqiao prebaked anode. At present, the Weiqiao reserve is reduced, electrolytic aluminum enterprises are preparing pre-baked anodes for the heating season, in order to prepare the warehouse in the pricing of the strong side to re-transfer to carbon enterprises.
SMM forecast: after entering the heating season, according to the documents known so far, there has not been any relaxation in the production limit. Although Henan Province has mentioned that after meeting the ultra-low emission standards, the production restrictions can be reduced and reduced appropriately. But at this point, according to SMM, most of the carbon enterprises in Henan are small, and the willingness to invest in environmental protection equipment is low. And the carbon industry is not an industry encouraged by the government, and even with environmentally friendly equipment, it may still be subject to production restrictions. This was the case last November when the Henan carbon industry was temporarily notified by the government to limit production for January. Therefore, not many carbon enterprises can actually meet the requirements of ultra-low emissions. In addition to the current losses of up to half a year, some carbon enterprises have considered quitting the market and switching to other cleaner and environmentally friendly industries. The actual production restrictions in Henan are likely to exceed those in the same period last year.
As the largest prebaked anode production area in China, Shandong, because of its large scale, most of the carbon enterprises in this area have invested more in environmental protection equipment, according to the local carbon enterprises. After meeting the ultra-low emission standard, it will be able to limit production according to the normal 50 per cent, so SMM believes that the probability of Shandong carbon enterprises is similar to that of last year's heating season. Generally speaking, the heating season limit of this year's prebaked anode enterprises should be the same or slightly strict as that of last year.
And at present, there has been a survey visit by the environmental protection inspection team in Shandong to understand the current situation of environmental protection equipment and emissions. Some large carbon enterprises in Shandong have said that they have plans to start reducing production one after another in early September. In addition, the inspection team has arrived in Dongying, and the local calcined coke enterprises have all stopped production. Therefore, for the pre-baked anode price in the heating season, SMM believes that the pre-baked anode market has reversed, and the heating season will promote the price of pre-baked anode from the aspects of cost, supply and demand. But at the same time, note that with last year's experience, aluminum plant procurement will be more rational, prebaked anode prices will eventually be weaker than last year.