SMM8 19: Friday August 10 Shanghai copper closing price of 49600 yuan / ton, this Friday August 17 day close Shanghai copper closed at 47770 yuan / ton. Copper prices fell 3.68% on Friday from Friday, and 12% of people in last week's survey were bearish on copper prices this week.
Affected by the surge in the dollar by the lira, the pressure on the whole line of non-ferrous metals fell back, and Shanghai copper fell for three days in a row, falling below all averages. With Sino-US negotiations just around the corner on Friday, fears of a trade war have temporarily eased, copper prices have stopped falling, and some of the lost ground has been recovered.
Macroscopically, domestically, RMB fluctuations are considered to be the apparent indicators of Sino-US trade relations. China has sent vice ministers to the United States for the second time, market sentiment has eased somewhat, and the rapid decline in copper prices in the short term has been curbed. The future market is dominated by weak shocks. China's industrial production of more than 6 per cent in July fell short of expectations, hitting its lowest level in August and the fifth month in a row, as mining growth slowed down and manufacturing growth accelerated. Internationally, Carlos Allende, a spokesman for the (Escondida) union at Chile's Escondida Copper Mine, the world's largest copper mine, said on Thursday that the first workers to have seen the new labor proposals said they were inclined to sign new contracts. "the contract was interpreted and submitted to grass-roots workers, who were fully satisfied with the new proposal," Allende said. Management BHP Billiton (BHP) 's proposal must still be voted by grass-roots workers. Earlier on Wednesday, the union said it would suspend planned strikes.
According to a SMM survey of people in the domestic industry, for August 17 day closing price of 47770 yuan / ton, the general trend of next week is more optimistic, that copper prices rose more next week. 56 per cent of participants thought copper prices were bullish in the short term (up more than 1 per cent), 5 per cent thought copper prices were volatile (up less than 1 per cent), and 22 per cent thought copper prices were weak (down less than 1 per cent). Seventeen per cent of participants said copper prices would be bearish next week (down more than 1 per cent).
SMM column: prospects for the Copper Market
Due to no major changes in the fundamentals of the copper market, after the market's pessimism about trade frictions has been fully released, it is now believed that the upward space of copper prices is larger than that of downward space, and copper prices are expected to return to fundamental support and stabilize and recover.
Goldman Sachs: copper is now oversold after the collapse in prices.
Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Paul Gait: 's lack of new mining projects means copper is facing a "structural deficit" as demand increases. According to Bloomberg Intelligence (Bloomberg Intelligence), the market could face a shortage of about 83000 metric tons in 2019.
Us study: LME copper fell to a one-year low hit in July on Tuesday as the Turkish lira crisis hit already battered sentiment and weak demand data hit the market hard. The main trade union at Chile's Caserones copper mine said on Tuesday that the two sides had agreed to extend the government's mediation period for labor negotiations until Thursday, focusing on the incident and not chasing empty space.
Hongye Futures:
Under US trade pressure, Sino-US trade disputes have not yet improved, while emerging market currencies have collapsed, the US dollar has soared and copper prices have fluctuated sharply. Chile 31 days the world's largest mine labor negotiations broke down, workers recently voted to strike for a month, but under the coordination of the government, there is still the possibility of easing, has not yet begun the strike. On the 14th, it was rumored that the mine would not go on strike and copper prices plummeted. The Chilean copper mine strike is uncertain, whether the strike or not could be the key to the fluctuation of copper prices in the future. Technically, this week, Lun Copper plummeted to a record low, Shanghai Copper hit to the 89-week moving average after a sharp fall, the lowest down to the medium-term upward channel down rail and Brin channel down rail 48000 near. Day K line 15 days down, MACD close to dead fork, short-term may continue to step back near 48000 support. However, copper positions in China and Shanghai rose sharply in the fall, and the direction of the market is not clear because of the uncertainty of the copper strike. Short-term Shanghai copper may continue to test the support around 48000, medium-term South American mine news may determine the trend of the market copper market, Shanghai copper in the shock gradually build the bottom. The upper pressure of Shanghai copper is 500000 and the lower support is 48000.
Jianxin Futures:
Although a series of stable growth measures have been introduced intensively recently, it is difficult to resist the low mood of the market. At present, macro-political game and downstream demand are the core factors affecting copper prices. From the basic point of view, the spot rising water makes the warehouse receipt inventory continue to decline, due to the domestic new smelter production capacity will be concentrated at the end of the year, but subject to the copper supply, the actual increment is limited. At present, the focus of copper is not on supply, but on global and Chinese demand. We must firmly believe in the government's measures and determination to stabilize development in the second half of the year and look forward to the fourth quarter. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate slightly this week from 48000 yuan / ton to 51000 yuan / ton.
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