[SMM Analysis] domestic goods tumble widely in the evening CPI and other economic data are released in the United States.-Shanghai Metals Market

Hot Keywords

  • Zinc
  • Inventory data
  • Copper scrap
  • Rare earth
  • Copper
  • MMi Iron Ore Port Index
  • Aluminium
  • Aluminum
  • SMM
  • Morning comments
  • Evening comments
  • Market commentary
  • Futures movement
  • Cobalt
  • price forecast

[SMM Analysis] domestic goods tumble widely in the evening CPI and other economic data are released in the United States.

Translation 04:56:08PM Aug 10, 2018 Source:SMM

SMM8 month 10 news: Friday, domestic goods fell in a large area. Coking coal led the black system, hit nearly 3%, ferrosilicon, coke and other varieties are also weak. Chemicals are generally lower, the whole line of non-ferrous plates floating green, Shanghai zinc decline in the first place. Shanghai copper fell 0.22%, Shanghai aluminum down 0.91%, Shanghai aluminum down 1.34%, Shanghai lead down 1.03%, Shanghai nickel down 0.99%, Shanghai tin down 1%.

The short-term profit has been digested out, and the coking coal has led the fall of the black system. Affected by a series of environmental protection and production restrictions this week, coke hit a new high on the market, and the thread also rose to a five-and-a-half-year high, but with the soaring futures prices, the speculation was gradually digested by the market, and the high concussion was on the verge of a pullback. Before noon today, the thread was the first to dive from a high position, and hot coil, iron ore and coal coke futures followed one after another. Among them, coking coal futures fundamentals are weak, Changyin fell nearly 3%, almost step back on the 10-day moving average. However, rebar social inventory data fell 2 per cent this week to a nearly seven-month low, the third round of coke rise also partially started, and Fen Wei area environmental inspection is approaching. It can be seen that the collective warehouse change month stage, the black system high shock pullback, the fundamentals are still maintaining a strong situation.

Global financial markets are likely to be affected by the release of economic data such as the US CPI this evening. The trade war between China and the United States has intensified, and the policy changes between the two countries have attracted attention.

In terms of capital flows today

A large number of domestic commodity funds flowed out today, with an overall blood loss of 1.115 billion. Non-ferrous plates bear the brunt of the 599 million funds escaped, of which Shanghai nickel was abandoned by 270 million funds. But the coal plate attracts 570 million capital blessing, coke futures strength is not vulgar, get 639 million capital favor.

A brief comment by SMM analyst on Aug. 10

Copper: the main 1810 contract of Shanghai Copper opened at 49850 yuan / ton this morning. The bulls increased their positions slightly at the beginning of the day. Copper prices fluctuated along a narrow range of 49930 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, they left the market as much as possible. The US dollar broke the 96 mark, and the basic metals fell across the board. After the opening of afternoon trading, Shanghai copper jumped low, bulls reduced a large number of positions, plummeted to 49410 yuan / ton, the end of the day rose slightly to 49530 yuan / ton shock operation, closed at 49600 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan / ton. The number of positions was reduced by 1706 to 182000, and the transaction was reduced by nearly 30, 000 to 238000. The offshore renminbi continued to fall to 6.86 today. Copper stocks fell by more than 20, 000 tons to 171000 tons last week, the lowest level in half a year, and have some support for copper prices in the short term. In the evening, CPI in the United States in July compared with the month-on-month data, is expected to stabilize at 49500 yuan per ton in the evening.

Aluminum: Shanghai Aluminum main 1810 contract jumped high this morning at 14640 yuan / ton, before noon basically around 14670 yuan / ton first line narrow range finishing, the volatility is only 20 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the US dollar suddenly jumped above 96, external metals fell across the board, and Shanghai aluminum fell rapidly at the start of afternoon trading, dropping the intraday low price of 14595 yuan per ton, and the low rose slightly after 14600 yuan was supported. The price was sorted out at 14625 yuan / ton until the end of trading, closing at 14620 yuan / ton, down 135yuan / ton, or 0.91 per cent. Trading volume was reduced by 143000 hands to 294956 hands, and positions by 17342 hands to 281184 hands. Shanghai aluminium closed at a long negative line today, almost giving back most of yesterday's gains, but still above the 5-10 moving average. Today, the impact of the strike at Alcoa's Western Australia plant has weakened, and the jump in the US dollar has put pressure on all metals. Although Shanghai Aluminum has made a correction, it has a strong support for 14500 yuan per ton, and it is still a drop-resistant variety in the basic metal. In view of the increased wait-and-see sentiment in the market, it is expected to maintain a concussion of $14650 in the evening and wait for guidance on external performance.

Lead: Shanghai lead main 1809 contract opened at 18305 yuan / ton, driven by the overall strength of non-ferrous metals, Shanghai lead shock upward, after the basic operation along the daily moving average, near noon, some of the bulls profit to leave the market, Shanghai lead straight down, in the afternoon, The US index strengthened, brushing a new one-year high of US $96.171. The Shanghai lead pressure diving once fell below the 5-day line and hit an intra-day low of 18205 yuan / ton. After the US Index maintained a high level, Shanghai lead was pressed below the daily average and consolidated around the 10-day line. Towards the end of trading, some bulls worried that Shanghai lead continued to weaken at night and left the market. Shanghai lead dived slightly again, closing down 18235 yuan per ton, down 1.03 percent, and reducing its position by 1996 hands to 57432 hands. Shanghai lead closed in the negative line, the end of the rebound market, if the dollar continues to strengthen at night, Shanghai lead may inertia downward, is expected to Shanghai lead or test 5 days of line support.

Zinc: today, the main 1810 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 21550 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the day, there was a multi-empty game stalemate. Shanghai zinc fluctuated around 21560 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, it encountered a large amount of empty entry, and after the straight line leakage of Shanghai zinc hit 21260 yuan / ton, it was slightly sorted out at 21310 yuan / ton. Then the short again, Shanghai zinc regained its decline, but the short mood gradually slowed, the rate of decline slowed down, down 21240 yuan / ton to stop the decline stabilized. It closed down 21285 yuan per ton, down 1.44 percent from the close of the previous day. Trading volume increased by 75932 hands to 544000 hands, and position volume increased by 9694 hands to 185000 hands. During the day, Shanghai zinc plummeted, short sentiment gradually released, but below the 20 line support still has room to look forward to, pay attention to the RMB trend guidance at night.

Nickel: Shanghai nickel 1811 opened at 113770 yuan per ton today. At the beginning of the disk, the long position increased, the short position decreased, Shanghai nickel concussion upward, touch high 114460 yuan / ton, above the pressure 114500 yuan / ton pass after a small probe. In the afternoon, the dollar index strengthened, brushing a new one-year high of $96.171, Shanghai nickel fell under pressure, the bottom of 113020 yuan / ton, below 5 days line support, and then the center of gravity around the 113300 yuan / ton range concussion, closed at 113260 yuan / ton. Shanghai nickel index outflow of 207 million yuan, ranking first in non-ferrous metals. For the whole day, 1811 of the main Shanghai nickel contract closed at the Xiaoyin line, down 1130 yuan, or 0.67 percent, from the previous day's settlement price. Trading volume increased by 9000 to 498000, while position decreased by 8000 to 273000. The daily line technology KDJ opening down, MACD red column becomes shorter. Shanghai nickel at night or around 113600 yuan / ton range shock. In the evening, we should pay attention to the July CPI month-on-month comparison in the United States.

[SMM Analysis] domestic goods tumble widely in the evening CPI and other economic data are released in the United States.

Translation 04:56:08PM Aug 10, 2018 Source:SMM

SMM8 month 10 news: Friday, domestic goods fell in a large area. Coking coal led the black system, hit nearly 3%, ferrosilicon, coke and other varieties are also weak. Chemicals are generally lower, the whole line of non-ferrous plates floating green, Shanghai zinc decline in the first place. Shanghai copper fell 0.22%, Shanghai aluminum down 0.91%, Shanghai aluminum down 1.34%, Shanghai lead down 1.03%, Shanghai nickel down 0.99%, Shanghai tin down 1%.

The short-term profit has been digested out, and the coking coal has led the fall of the black system. Affected by a series of environmental protection and production restrictions this week, coke hit a new high on the market, and the thread also rose to a five-and-a-half-year high, but with the soaring futures prices, the speculation was gradually digested by the market, and the high concussion was on the verge of a pullback. Before noon today, the thread was the first to dive from a high position, and hot coil, iron ore and coal coke futures followed one after another. Among them, coking coal futures fundamentals are weak, Changyin fell nearly 3%, almost step back on the 10-day moving average. However, rebar social inventory data fell 2 per cent this week to a nearly seven-month low, the third round of coke rise also partially started, and Fen Wei area environmental inspection is approaching. It can be seen that the collective warehouse change month stage, the black system high shock pullback, the fundamentals are still maintaining a strong situation.

Global financial markets are likely to be affected by the release of economic data such as the US CPI this evening. The trade war between China and the United States has intensified, and the policy changes between the two countries have attracted attention.

In terms of capital flows today

A large number of domestic commodity funds flowed out today, with an overall blood loss of 1.115 billion. Non-ferrous plates bear the brunt of the 599 million funds escaped, of which Shanghai nickel was abandoned by 270 million funds. But the coal plate attracts 570 million capital blessing, coke futures strength is not vulgar, get 639 million capital favor.

A brief comment by SMM analyst on Aug. 10

Copper: the main 1810 contract of Shanghai Copper opened at 49850 yuan / ton this morning. The bulls increased their positions slightly at the beginning of the day. Copper prices fluctuated along a narrow range of 49930 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, they left the market as much as possible. The US dollar broke the 96 mark, and the basic metals fell across the board. After the opening of afternoon trading, Shanghai copper jumped low, bulls reduced a large number of positions, plummeted to 49410 yuan / ton, the end of the day rose slightly to 49530 yuan / ton shock operation, closed at 49600 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan / ton. The number of positions was reduced by 1706 to 182000, and the transaction was reduced by nearly 30, 000 to 238000. The offshore renminbi continued to fall to 6.86 today. Copper stocks fell by more than 20, 000 tons to 171000 tons last week, the lowest level in half a year, and have some support for copper prices in the short term. In the evening, CPI in the United States in July compared with the month-on-month data, is expected to stabilize at 49500 yuan per ton in the evening.

Aluminum: Shanghai Aluminum main 1810 contract jumped high this morning at 14640 yuan / ton, before noon basically around 14670 yuan / ton first line narrow range finishing, the volatility is only 20 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the US dollar suddenly jumped above 96, external metals fell across the board, and Shanghai aluminum fell rapidly at the start of afternoon trading, dropping the intraday low price of 14595 yuan per ton, and the low rose slightly after 14600 yuan was supported. The price was sorted out at 14625 yuan / ton until the end of trading, closing at 14620 yuan / ton, down 135yuan / ton, or 0.91 per cent. Trading volume was reduced by 143000 hands to 294956 hands, and positions by 17342 hands to 281184 hands. Shanghai aluminium closed at a long negative line today, almost giving back most of yesterday's gains, but still above the 5-10 moving average. Today, the impact of the strike at Alcoa's Western Australia plant has weakened, and the jump in the US dollar has put pressure on all metals. Although Shanghai Aluminum has made a correction, it has a strong support for 14500 yuan per ton, and it is still a drop-resistant variety in the basic metal. In view of the increased wait-and-see sentiment in the market, it is expected to maintain a concussion of $14650 in the evening and wait for guidance on external performance.

Lead: Shanghai lead main 1809 contract opened at 18305 yuan / ton, driven by the overall strength of non-ferrous metals, Shanghai lead shock upward, after the basic operation along the daily moving average, near noon, some of the bulls profit to leave the market, Shanghai lead straight down, in the afternoon, The US index strengthened, brushing a new one-year high of US $96.171. The Shanghai lead pressure diving once fell below the 5-day line and hit an intra-day low of 18205 yuan / ton. After the US Index maintained a high level, Shanghai lead was pressed below the daily average and consolidated around the 10-day line. Towards the end of trading, some bulls worried that Shanghai lead continued to weaken at night and left the market. Shanghai lead dived slightly again, closing down 18235 yuan per ton, down 1.03 percent, and reducing its position by 1996 hands to 57432 hands. Shanghai lead closed in the negative line, the end of the rebound market, if the dollar continues to strengthen at night, Shanghai lead may inertia downward, is expected to Shanghai lead or test 5 days of line support.

Zinc: today, the main 1810 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 21550 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the day, there was a multi-empty game stalemate. Shanghai zinc fluctuated around 21560 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, it encountered a large amount of empty entry, and after the straight line leakage of Shanghai zinc hit 21260 yuan / ton, it was slightly sorted out at 21310 yuan / ton. Then the short again, Shanghai zinc regained its decline, but the short mood gradually slowed, the rate of decline slowed down, down 21240 yuan / ton to stop the decline stabilized. It closed down 21285 yuan per ton, down 1.44 percent from the close of the previous day. Trading volume increased by 75932 hands to 544000 hands, and position volume increased by 9694 hands to 185000 hands. During the day, Shanghai zinc plummeted, short sentiment gradually released, but below the 20 line support still has room to look forward to, pay attention to the RMB trend guidance at night.

Nickel: Shanghai nickel 1811 opened at 113770 yuan per ton today. At the beginning of the disk, the long position increased, the short position decreased, Shanghai nickel concussion upward, touch high 114460 yuan / ton, above the pressure 114500 yuan / ton pass after a small probe. In the afternoon, the dollar index strengthened, brushing a new one-year high of $96.171, Shanghai nickel fell under pressure, the bottom of 113020 yuan / ton, below 5 days line support, and then the center of gravity around the 113300 yuan / ton range concussion, closed at 113260 yuan / ton. Shanghai nickel index outflow of 207 million yuan, ranking first in non-ferrous metals. For the whole day, 1811 of the main Shanghai nickel contract closed at the Xiaoyin line, down 1130 yuan, or 0.67 percent, from the previous day's settlement price. Trading volume increased by 9000 to 498000, while position decreased by 8000 to 273000. The daily line technology KDJ opening down, MACD red column becomes shorter. Shanghai nickel at night or around 113600 yuan / ton range shock. In the evening, we should pay attention to the July CPI month-on-month comparison in the United States.