Yesterday's joint statement on trade talks between the US and Europe was not particularly hot in the US, but it brushed up almost the entire Chinese financial world.
Most of the so-called "experts" and "Big V" have come up with a variety of things such as "the United States and Europe reached a consensus on a free trade agreement!" WTO or a piece of waste paper! "or" Trump's move to change the world pattern in US-European trade, "or" the United States and Europe reach a trade agreement China faces a two-line combat situation, "such sensational headlines as" the United States and Europe reach a trade agreement, "or" the United States and Europe reach a trade agreement and China faces a two-line combat situation. "
Just as when the United States launched TPP, bricks and mortar from all walks of life shouted that China was going to subjugate the country. what was the result?. As a result, TPP himself was scrapped by the United States, and I don't know if their faces still hurt?
As a long-term analyst of American politics and geopolitics, there is one starting point I insist on, that is, a mature adult, whether in the analysis of financial events or international politics, should start from the word "interests".
Only immature adults, such as bricklayers, tend to start with their own unreliable ideologies and China's collapse theory, so their predictions in various international political events have always been unreliable. Whoever believes their conclusion will be punched in the face.
The political world in the United States, including the world Trump faces every day, is two completely different worlds from those in China's financial circles.
Most of the big wild V have no contact with the political ecology of the United States at all, do not understand what is happening in the United States, what they depict is expected to be in the clouds and fog in the eyes of the vast majority of Americans.
In fact, all diplomacy is an extension of internal affairs.
To understand Trump's recent moves and the motives behind the EU, we must first go deep into the politics of the United States and the distribution of interests within the EU. From a different point of view from the point of view of most Chinese people from China, it is possible to see the fact that it is closer to the truth.
American Politics: and what you see is two Worlds
Compared with the "big chess games" created every day by China's financial wild V, the hottest political topics in the United States these days are two:
One is that Trump, the 45th president of the United States, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki and was criticized as "treason."
Another was that Trump's private lawyer, Cohen, was taken away by FBI this week and found a pile of secret recordings of Trump paying for his affair to seal the woman's mouth.
As a person who tracks Trump's Twitter every day, I can clearly feel that the focus of American attention is completely different from that of the Chinese.
Last year, U.S. Attorney General Rosenstein appointed Robert Muller, a former director of the FBI's (FBI), as special prosecutor to oversee the FBI's investigation into Russia's intervention in the election.
There are already a number of investigations under way into the relationship between Trump's campaign and Russia, and a series of incidents are simmering in Washington.
Before Trump went to Helsinki for secret talks with Putin, Muller filed an indictment against 12 Russian intelligence agents.
As a result, Trump's support for Russia after the secret talks began to blow up the entire political circle in the United States.
If you go to Trump's Twitter, almost all the comments are one-sided that Trump sold his country and knelt down and licked Russia.
When the heat of the door was just a little over, another "recording door" broke out this week.
The story is that since Trump used campaign money to pay for the scandal with porn star Danielle, FBI has gone to his private lawyer to do the dirty work and found more black material, including recordings made privately by the lawyer himself.
On Trump's Twitter, the attention and heat of the "treason to Russia" and the "lawyer case" are completely unparalleled in the US-EU trade negotiations.
An order of magnitude that is basically several times different. Even a tweet congratulating others on their election overshadowed the US-EU trade agreement.
If you look at it from Trump's point of view, what is the top priority? After opening the door to Russia, he was almost isolated in internal affairs and diplomacy. after the recording door, the image of putting money into lawyers to do illegal and illegal work has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. if we go on like this, let alone do one more term, I'm afraid we'll have to be ousted in two years.
What should I do from the point of view of interest? Something bigger, of course. cover it up.
Resent Iran, make enemies for itself; pull the European Union, repair damaged allies for itself because of Russia. One by one, it makes perfect sense, and if you were Trump, you would have to do the same.
In fact, the comments in the United States have been very clearly summarized,: He is fixing the problem,but,what he fixed is created by his own..
What is a politician's usual trick of trying to create a political record? To create a problem, and then to solve a problem that didn't exist before.
So, don't be fooled by superficial things, think more about deep-seated motivations. It is simply unrealistic for a politician to think about what will happen in a decade or two if he can continue to do so in two years' time.
As for the EU's resistance to China and the like, it is too strange that only those who know nothing about the world trade pattern and the EU's economic structure can come up with a brain loop.
EU trick: only one, self-protection
It is necessary to see clearly the essence of the US-EU trade negotiations, or the old saying: look at the problem from the point of view of interests!
The EU is made up of people, you have to have a job, you have to have food, which is fundamentally different from the ideological financial circles in China, which feel as if they can eat after the collapse of their own economy.
In 2017, China was the EU's largest import trading partner, accounting for 20 percent of its total imports from outside the region and the EU's second largest export market, according to Eurostat's website released on May 22 this year. It accounts for 11 per cent of the EU's total exports to the region. The United States, at the top of the list, accounted for 20%.
Machinery and vehicles, chemicals and other manufactured goods dominate imports and exports from both sides, both in the EU and in China. These manufactured goods account for 85 per cent of EU exports and 97 per cent of imports from China.
Cars are the EU's most exported product to China, while telecommunications equipment is the EU's main import from China.
Among EU countries, the Netherlands imported the most from China in 2017, at 83 billion euros, and Germany exported the most to China, at 87 billion euros.
"China is the EU's largest import trading partner" means that once China loses its market, the entire EU economy will be hit as hard as the 2008 financial tsunami, with a bunch of people out of work and a bunch of companies going bankrupt. The loss of China, the source of imports, means that the cost of living for Europeans will now rise sharply.
Will Americans pay to save the EU? Well, Americans don't even want to pay for NATO right now.
Bankruptcy, unemployment, high inflation, the European Union really wants to unite with the United States to resist China, the first to die is estimated to be the European Union itself.
Therefore, the EU's trade negotiations with the United States can only be an act of self-protection, hoping that the self-contained between the two major powers will not be used as cannon fodder.
After all, no matter how much Europeans can eat, they can't eat tens of millions of tons of American soybeans that can't be sold like pigs, and Americans can't drive a few more buttocks to drive a few more European cars.
If you take a serious look at the joint statement issued by the United States and Europe on the trade war, what it says is that the United States and Europe are only expressing their intention to "commit themselves to achieving zero tariffs."
From intention to implementation, there are thousands of kilometers.
Didn't Ross come to China to negotiate a 70 billion deal? And what happened? The emperor rebelled first.
Mr Trump is now in a state of Schrodinger, and he can tear up the agreement at any time and fart what he has said, which Europeans should be well aware of, after all, Mr Trump's biggest enemy two weeks ago was the "European Union".
Moreover, as a loose political entity, the EU is full of uneven distribution of interests and imbalances, if it is said that tariffs between Europe and the United States are completely reduced to zero. Export-oriented industrial countries such as Germany are of course the biggest beneficiaries, because German cars can be exported to the United States in large quantities, but from a French point of view, American agricultural products will have a large impact on the original market of French farmers.
If the EU is to reach and implement an agreement as a unified political entity.
Then the imbalance in interests within the EU means that when an agreement is reached, there must be countries willing to sacrifice in exchange for benefits such as Germany.
So who within the EU is going to sacrifice themselves? If this problem is not resolved, the implementation of the agreement between the United States and Europe will be a dead letter.
From the point of view of interests, it is not difficult to reach such an agreement when the political achievements are made, but in order to really implement such an agreement, it is estimated that no one wants to die.
From the point of view of this negotiation between the United States and the European Union, I think it is more a symbolic act than an internal agreement and then come back to talk about it. Because there is no sign that any country in Europe is willing to sacrifice its own interests in exchange for others.
Even in the worst-case scenario, a tariff-free agreement between Europe and the United States, such as TPP and TIPP, is not particularly feasible.
Whether it's Europe, the United States, or Japan, these are some of the developed industrial countries.
In particular, the European Union and the United States are predators at the top of the global economic food chain, their original economic structure and export structure are a lot of overlap, there is no complementarity at all. Can you imagine a group of people in a company all leaders, no middle level, no junior staff, and then the company can still function properly? It's impossible.
America's dilemma now lies in the countries it can woo, such as the European Union and Japan, which pose a threat to it in high-end manufacturing, or Southeast Asian countries that will take jobs at the lower and middle levels of their labour markets.
If European cars open the door to imports, will hit the Midwest, Trump's hardcore support state economy, Trump will give up his vote for the European Union? It's totally unthinkable.
And according to Trump's way of always taking advantage of others, if you really want to do it, the EU will certainly have to trade its own interests to the United States.
I am afraid that by then the European Union must have ordered the European Union to move the factory to the United States, and if it does not do so, it will not be implemented.
They all have to be able to talk about it. That only means that both sides are really great.
Although Europe has a tradition of appeasement, it continues to make concessions in exchange for apparent peace at the expense of other countries. But the last time World War II appeasement led to the fall of the entire European continent, hundreds of years of accumulated wealth was ravaged to nothing.
One more appeasement by traders in the EU is not expected to turn out to be as good as World War II.
Is Uncle Abe kneeling in Japan active enough? The question is, what do you get for being so servile? Round after round of blackmail against Japan.
If the EU thinks it can survive on its knees, it is true that if it does not do it, it will not die.
As China, in fact, the most important thing now, or fixed force.
With the world's most complete industrial chain, the most powerful industrial manufacturing capacity, the largest consumer market, there is no need to fear the so-called trade war. If the US, Japan and Europe build a small version of TPP, the alliance of raw and manufacturing countries will have to fight each other internally.
If they build a customs union aimed only at China, it is impossible to find another country around the world to replace China's productive capacity, and the so-called tariffs will eventually be passed on to their own people.
Compared with those brick people who are afraid of the world all day, let's let the bullets fly a little longer.
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