SMM7, July 17: on July 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released China's economic operation data for the first half of 2018, preliminary accounting, the first half of the gross domestic product of 41.8961 trillion yuan, at comparable prices, an increase of 6.8 percent over the same period last year. On a quarterly basis, it grew 6.8 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier and 6.7 per cent in the second quarter, maintaining a range of 6.7 per cent and 6.9 per cent for 12 consecutive quarters. By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 2.2087 trillion yuan, up 3.2 percent over the same period last year; the added value of the secondary industry was 16.9299 trillion yuan, up 6.1 percent; and the added value of the tertiary industry was 22.7576 trillion yuan, up 7.6 percent.
On the day of the release of China's data, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics said on a reporter's question on the operation of the national economy in the first half of this year that the main indicators of China's economic operation in the first half of this year were generally relatively stable. The impact of Sino-US trade friction on the economy is relatively limited, and China's economy is still optimistic in the second half of the year.
Prior to the release of the second-quarter GDP by the Bureau of Statistics, multi-level agencies also made forecasts for this data. they believed that economic growth in the first half of the year was slightly lower than that in the first quarter or now, and that the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by about 6.7 percent. The relevant statistics for the 16th are in line with expectations.
In the first half of 2018, the economic trend was not very stable. on the international side, the gradual escalation of the trade war between China and the United States, the volatile situation of separation and integration in Europe, the domestic side, financial deleveraging, and environmental governance under the promotion of environmental protection. All this makes the market's expectations of the economy slightly less optimistic. In response to data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, Carsten Menke, a commodities analyst at Switzerland's Baisheng Group, said China's gross domestic product (GDP) data showed overall economic stability. But it reflects some weakness in the "old economy" or infrastructure.
With regard to China's economic situation in the second half of the year and its becoming the focus of the entire market, many industry insiders expect that China's macroeconomic downward pressure will be greater in the future. although it is unlikely that the economy will fall sharply, the downward trend has been basically determined. Coupled with the sharp contraction in the trade war and social finance between China and the United States, exports and investment in the second half of the year are not optimistic.
Speaking at the China Macroeconomic Forum (Mid-term), Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University of China, said that China's economy is not as weak as reflected on the demand side, nor is it as bad as many small and medium-sized enterprises and some market participants now say. China's economy is still growing strongly, both in terms of service consumption and exports. The decline in investment was mainly due to the Government's reduced investment in infrastructure and the crowding out of water. As for the view of low consumer demand, he believes that the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumption can no longer represent the changes in consumption in China, and that the total retail sales of consumer goods mainly reflect physical commodities, which are tangible and tangible sales of goods. However, the tertiary industry, especially the service industry, is not reflected in this parameter.
With regard to China's exports, Liu Yuanchun said that in RMB terms, exports grew by 5.5 percent in January-May this year, down 8.2 percentage points from the same period last year, but if denominated in US dollars, Exports rose 13.3 per cent in the January-May period, 6.2 percentage points higher than in the same period last year, and Chinese exports remain strong in dollar terms. China's exports are related to global demand, not much to the $50 billion involved in trade frictions between China and the United States.
Sheng Laiyun, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in an interview with CCTV on the evening of the 16th that our market space in China is very large, and our greatest advantages and potential are the vast market space, the great consumption potential, and the great room for manoeuvre. So we can trade time for space and finally win the Sino-US trade dispute.
He said: judging from the current situation, China's economy will continue to maintain an overall stable, stable and good situation in the second half of the year, and improve the quality in a stable manner. There are still more conditions and potential to support the stability of China's economy, and there are still more conditions for efforts, and the biggest favorable condition is that the transformation and upgrading of China's economy is in a good situation. The stability, coordination and sustainability of economic operation are increasing. At the same time, the structure of demand is also constantly upgrading, and consumption has significantly enhanced its role in supporting the stable operation of the economy. in the first half of the year, the contribution of final consumption to GDP growth reached 78.5% of the three major demand, an increase of 14 percentage points over last year. These two aspects have determined that the stability and coordination of China's economic operation are increasing, and that China's economy has made progress in a stable and stable manner, and has the greatest strength to improve in a stable manner.