SMM comprehensive report: according to the news of the National Development and Reform Commission on July 3, a few days ago, the political Research Office of the National Development and Reform Commission, together with the Comprehensive Department, the Financial Department, and the Price Division, jointly held the third phase of the "215th Economic Tea House" in Conference Room 215, South Building of the National Development and Reform Commission. Liu Junhong of the Globalization Research Center of the China Institute of Modern International Relations, Mei Xinyu of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, Xiao Lisheng of the International Finance Research Department of the Institute of World Economic Affairs of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Niu Li of the National Information Center, Ding Gang, Guo Liyan, Yang Changxun and other experts and scholars of the China Institute of Macroeconomics, The related issues were discussed in depth.
Experts at the meeting held that since the beginning of this year, the world economy as a whole has maintained a growth trend, and the IMF expects the global economy to grow by 3.9 percent, but the trend of the economies is somewhat different. The US economy grew 2.0 per cent in the first quarter, maintaining a relatively high level, while the European and Japanese economies tended to fall back, with some of the more fragile emerging economies facing strong spillover risks. Experts pointed out that from the immediate point of view, the world economy is mainly facing five risks. One is the continued escalation of Trump's trade protection policy, which could have the biggest impact on the world economy. Second, the economic cycle of major economies is divided, and the risk of deviation from international macroeconomic policies increases. Third, the pressure on cross-border capital outflows from emerging economies has increased, and the risk of dollar debt and exchange rate stability has risen. Fourth, commodity prices are volatile and global inflation is likely to continue to rise. Fifth, global political and security risks are becoming increasingly prominent, posing a realistic impact on the trend of the world economy.
Experts suggested that in order to better deal with the risks of uncertainty in the world economy, we should continue to strengthen the tracking and analysis of world economic trends and international political and economic patterns, and strengthen the study and judgment of strategic and forward-looking major issues. We will be prepared to deal with long-term trade frictions and strategic competition between China and the United States, base ourselves on the large domestic demand market, adhere to open and inclusive development, effectively prevent and resolve internal and external risks and challenges, and promote sustained and healthy economic development. The first is to hedge the uncertainty risk of the world economy with the certainty of the Chinese economy. Second, we will strengthen international coordination and strategic planning to deal with protectionism. The third is to cultivate the competitive advantage of the international commodity market. Fourth, strengthen the prevention and control of internal and external financial risks.
In the aspect of preventing the risk caused by the change of commodity price, the experts suggest that we should do a good job in six aspects: first, speed up the construction of the release mechanism of commodity monitoring, analysis and early warning, and improve the early warning device; The second is to prevent the abnormal fluctuation of international commodity prices and increase the international financial risk, the third is to promote the health of the industry by deepening the reform, and the second is to prevent the abnormal fluctuation of international commodity prices and increase the international financial risks. The fourth is to improve the reserve qualification, improve the means of regulation and control as the core, to enhance the ability of price regulation and control, build a buffer period, fifth, the use of two markets to ensure energy resources and food security, enhance control; Sixth, push up the development of commodity spot and futures markets to enhance the right to speak.