News disrupts oil market earthquake crude oil futures have risen sharply

SMM6: today, June 27, the main contract of Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 485 yuan / barrel, up 3.63%, the highest hit 486.1 yuan / barrel in intraday trading, the second highest since listing. The main contract sold 295640 hands, the position increased by 3170 hands to 39126 hands.

Overnight news disrupts expected supply shortfalls oil prices seize the opportunity to soar

Last night, US Energy Secretary Rick Perry (Rick Perry) told reporters that the OPEC + countries' agreement to increase production may not be enough to ease global crude oil supply pressure. Then there were reports that Saudi Arabia had decided to do it itself to ease supply pressures.

Saudi Arabia plans to increase crude oil production by 1.08 million barrels a day to a record level in July and could eventually reach between 10.6 million and 11 million barrels a day, Bloomberg reported. It will be the biggest surge in production in the country's history, aimed at cooling oil prices. The report pointed out that Trump also wants to rely on Saudi Arabia to maintain a balance of supply in the oil market ahead of the midterm elections in the United States.

Just as Saudi Arabia will increase crude oil production, an official of the US State Department said that the United States hopes that its allies will reduce oil imports from Iran to "zero" by November 4, and that the United States does not plan to grant exemptions to any country that imports Iranian crude oil. If Iranian crude continues to be purchased after Nov. 4, companies will face secondary sanctions.

So can there really be a balance of supplies through Saudi Arabia while sanctioning Iran, as Trump wants? Judging from the reaction to oil prices, perhaps his calculation does not work.

According to OPEC statistics, Asia is a major importer of Iranian crude oil. The US allies may comply with the requirement to reduce oil imports from Iran to "zero" under pressure from the United States, but China and India may not comply. But assuming that the US demand is met and supply in the oil market is likely to fall sharply, it is expected that the dollar will rise above the $70 mark again and move strongly.

Amritassen (Amrita Sen), chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, a London-based consultancy, said: "if US allies reduce crude oil imports from Iran to zero, India and China also reduce imports. Then Iran's exports are likely to fall by 1.5 million barrels a day, a much larger gap than the market expected a week ago. "

API crude stocks fall more than expected to further stimulate oil price gains

Us API crude stocks fell 9.228 million barrels in the week ended June 22 and are expected to fall 2.481 million barrels, according to API crude inventory data this morning. Gasoline stocks increased by 1.552 million barrels and are expected to increase by 1.218 million barrels. Refined oil refining stocks increased by 1.785 million barrels and are expected to increase by 643000 barrels.

Zero hedge, a prominent financial blog, said the United States threatened to sanction Iran to boost oil prices on Tuesday. Crude inventories are expected to fall further (crude inventories recorded an unexpected drop in), API crude inventories last week, the biggest drop since September 2016, and oil prices rose again in the short term after the data were released.