[SMM Analysis] Trade War or detonate multiple negativity: fall across the board after the Black Festival-Shanghai Metals Market

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[SMM Analysis] Trade War or detonate multiple negativity: fall across the board after the Black Festival

Translation 02:31:05PM Jun 19, 2018 Source:SMM

SMM net news: this morning's opening, affected by the escalation of the trade war and other factors, black led the metal market. Bijiao and iron ore fell by more than 3%, and threads and hot rolls fell by more than 2%. In early June, the domestic steel spot market is still at a high level, the main thread contract 1810 on Friday strongly rose to 3910 yuan / ton, close to the year's high. But the White House announced on the evening of June 15 (Beijing time) that it would impose a 25 per cent tariff on $50 billion of Chinese goods, including products from the "made in China 2025" plan, sparking a metal plunge.

SMM Iron and Steel believes that this round of black futures price decline is mainly affected by the uncertainty of the external macro environment. at present, although steel stocks are still at a low level and the resumption of production in Xuzhou and other regions is proceeding slowly, the negative factors are gradually emerging. Watch out for the risk of high steel prices falling back. Spot transactions, this morning all over the spot prices fell by 40 to 60 yuan / range, affected by the sharp decline in futures, the market wait-and-see mood increased, the trading situation is not satisfactory.

Summary of early trading on June 19

Black series futures floating green all over the line

Weak demand and unsatisfactory sales in the lower reaches of the steel market

According to the investigation and statistics of SMM iron and steel downstream terminals, the total consumption of construction steel is about 50%, the proportion of automobile is 6%, and the proportion of household appliances is 4%. Affected by the internal and external environment this year, infrastructure performance is not as expected, housing enterprises are slightly tighter, household appliances may become the only bright spot of downstream terminals.

I. shortage of funds: serious financing difficulties for housing enterprises caused by the flight of foreign capital

The data show that overseas funds are pulling out of Asia's six largest emerging stock markets at the fastest pace since the 2008 global financial crisis as a result of the Fed's interest rate hike. A total of $19 billion has been withdrawn from India, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand so far this year.

With the deepening of risk prevention and deleveraging policy, the failure or postponement of bond issuance in China has increased significantly. In less than half a year this year, 356 bonds have been cancelled or postponed, with a total planned issuance of 227.036 billion yuan. It is worth noting that in the above-mentioned "suspension" of bond issuance in the majority of housing enterprises. In the view of the industry, the recent increase in the difficulty of credit bond issuance and the increase in the number of cases of issuance failure reflect the tightening of the credit bond financing environment.

2. cars became the only category where sales fell in May compared with the same period last year

Figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics: in May 2018, total retail sales of consumer goods totaled 3.0359 trillion yuan, down for three months in a row, up 8.5 percent in nominal terms over the same period last year (excluding price factors, up 6.8 percent in real terms). The following is nominal growth, with the exception of the special note). Of this total, retail sales of consumer goods above the quota totaled 1.1477 trillion yuan, up 5.5 percent. In the past, the rapid growth of cosmetics, cultural and office supplies, architectural decoration and other categories of decline are relatively obvious. Moreover, automotive goods, where retail sales rose 10 percentage points year-on-year at the start of the year, even experienced a rare negative growth in May, falling 1 per cent, making it the only category in which sales fell in the month from a year earlier.

Source: national Bureau of Statistics

III. 50 billion + 200 billion-Home Appliances escape

Us President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 10 per cent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods on June 18, raising tensions in the trade war, according to the latest news. In a statement, Trump said he had asked the US trade representative to confirm that Chinese products would be bound by the new tariffs in retaliation for China's $50 billion increase in tariffs on US goods. "after the legal proceedings have been completed," he said. If China refuses to change its approach, and if it insists on introducing recently announced new tariffs, these tariffs will take effect. "

(USTR), the US trade representative's office, announced a list of Chinese goods subject to tariffs on June 15. half of the household appliances were removed from the proposed tax list released by the USTR on April 3, better than expected. A total of 43 items were removed from the tax catalogue, including: television, air-conditioned chassis, clothes dryers, dishwashers, ovens, juicers, toasters and other related products. In addition, there are no household appliances in the 284 new catalogues. Anxin Securities believes that the current "trade war" has little impact on household appliances, and the prosperity of the household appliances industry is still improving.

[SMM Analysis] Trade War or detonate multiple negativity: fall across the board after the Black Festival

Translation 02:31:05PM Jun 19, 2018 Source:SMM

SMM net news: this morning's opening, affected by the escalation of the trade war and other factors, black led the metal market. Bijiao and iron ore fell by more than 3%, and threads and hot rolls fell by more than 2%. In early June, the domestic steel spot market is still at a high level, the main thread contract 1810 on Friday strongly rose to 3910 yuan / ton, close to the year's high. But the White House announced on the evening of June 15 (Beijing time) that it would impose a 25 per cent tariff on $50 billion of Chinese goods, including products from the "made in China 2025" plan, sparking a metal plunge.

SMM Iron and Steel believes that this round of black futures price decline is mainly affected by the uncertainty of the external macro environment. at present, although steel stocks are still at a low level and the resumption of production in Xuzhou and other regions is proceeding slowly, the negative factors are gradually emerging. Watch out for the risk of high steel prices falling back. Spot transactions, this morning all over the spot prices fell by 40 to 60 yuan / range, affected by the sharp decline in futures, the market wait-and-see mood increased, the trading situation is not satisfactory.

Summary of early trading on June 19

Black series futures floating green all over the line

Weak demand and unsatisfactory sales in the lower reaches of the steel market

According to the investigation and statistics of SMM iron and steel downstream terminals, the total consumption of construction steel is about 50%, the proportion of automobile is 6%, and the proportion of household appliances is 4%. Affected by the internal and external environment this year, infrastructure performance is not as expected, housing enterprises are slightly tighter, household appliances may become the only bright spot of downstream terminals.

I. shortage of funds: serious financing difficulties for housing enterprises caused by the flight of foreign capital

The data show that overseas funds are pulling out of Asia's six largest emerging stock markets at the fastest pace since the 2008 global financial crisis as a result of the Fed's interest rate hike. A total of $19 billion has been withdrawn from India, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand so far this year.

With the deepening of risk prevention and deleveraging policy, the failure or postponement of bond issuance in China has increased significantly. In less than half a year this year, 356 bonds have been cancelled or postponed, with a total planned issuance of 227.036 billion yuan. It is worth noting that in the above-mentioned "suspension" of bond issuance in the majority of housing enterprises. In the view of the industry, the recent increase in the difficulty of credit bond issuance and the increase in the number of cases of issuance failure reflect the tightening of the credit bond financing environment.

2. cars became the only category where sales fell in May compared with the same period last year

Figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics: in May 2018, total retail sales of consumer goods totaled 3.0359 trillion yuan, down for three months in a row, up 8.5 percent in nominal terms over the same period last year (excluding price factors, up 6.8 percent in real terms). The following is nominal growth, with the exception of the special note). Of this total, retail sales of consumer goods above the quota totaled 1.1477 trillion yuan, up 5.5 percent. In the past, the rapid growth of cosmetics, cultural and office supplies, architectural decoration and other categories of decline are relatively obvious. Moreover, automotive goods, where retail sales rose 10 percentage points year-on-year at the start of the year, even experienced a rare negative growth in May, falling 1 per cent, making it the only category in which sales fell in the month from a year earlier.

Source: national Bureau of Statistics

III. 50 billion + 200 billion-Home Appliances escape

Us President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 10 per cent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods on June 18, raising tensions in the trade war, according to the latest news. In a statement, Trump said he had asked the US trade representative to confirm that Chinese products would be bound by the new tariffs in retaliation for China's $50 billion increase in tariffs on US goods. "after the legal proceedings have been completed," he said. If China refuses to change its approach, and if it insists on introducing recently announced new tariffs, these tariffs will take effect. "

(USTR), the US trade representative's office, announced a list of Chinese goods subject to tariffs on June 15. half of the household appliances were removed from the proposed tax list released by the USTR on April 3, better than expected. A total of 43 items were removed from the tax catalogue, including: television, air-conditioned chassis, clothes dryers, dishwashers, ovens, juicers, toasters and other related products. In addition, there are no household appliances in the 284 new catalogues. Anxin Securities believes that the current "trade war" has little impact on household appliances, and the prosperity of the household appliances industry is still improving.