SMM's monthly production data for basic metals in China are scheduled to be released around the 8th of each month. the purpose is to start from the essence, excavate the real fundamental status quo, and open up the illusion of the capital market for people in the industrial chain and investors. A clearer grasp of the future direction of the colored market.
In May 2018, SMM China's refined copper production was 747300 tons, up 1.29 percent from the previous month, up 19.57 percent from the same period last year, and the cumulative output from January to May was 3.6036 million tons, up 13.4 percent from the same period last year.
The increase in the output of Fuye Group, Jinchuan, Jinlong and other refineries in May was the main reason for the increase in overall production in May. In May, the processing fee of crude copper at home and abroad continued to fall, the current domestic is 1600 ≤ 1800 yuan / ton, imported crude copper CIF in 190 ≤ 220 US dollars / ton. SMM believes that with the overhaul and shutdown of roughing links in copper smelters at home and abroad, as well as the contraction of waste copper production caused by waste copper supply and environmental protection, there is still room for the reduction of crude copper processing fees, but it has not affected the overall electrolytic copper production in May.
According to the production schedules of various refineries in June, due to environmental protection and equipment failures and maintenance in some copper refineries, SMM expects China's refined copper production to decrease to 728900 tons in June compared with May, a 2.46 percent decrease from the previous month, and an increase of 11.45 percent over the same period last year. The cumulative output reached 4.3325 million tons, an increase of 13 per cent over the same period last year.
In addition, Qinghai Copper Co., Ltd. successfully ignited the smelting furnace with an annual output of 100000 tons of cathode copper project on May 21, and entered the trial production stage on May 29. electrolytic copper is expected to be produced in a month's time.
SMM expects to produce 5.9 million tons in June, with an average daily output of 197000 tons, mainly from the release of new production capacity in Huaqing, Shanxi Province, and a small increase in production as a result of cloud aluminum's post-processing process.
In May (31 days), China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.073 million tons, down 3.2 percent from the same period last year, and from January to May, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 14.789 million tons, down 2.7 percent from the same period last year.
In May, the annual operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China was 36.18 million tons, an increase of 280000 tons over April. The recovery of operating capacity in May was mainly affected by the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production in Henan and some new production capacity in Guangxi and Inner Mongolia.
In June, SMM expects the scale of domestic electrolytic aluminum operation capacity to be further increased, including China Lei, China Resources, Huaren, Baiquan and other aluminum plants still have new capacity on the market. However, in the first half of the year, the overall production capacity and electrolytic aluminum production rate was lower than expected, the overall electrolytic aluminum supply growth rate of-2.8% in the first half of the year. In June, SMM forecast total electrolytic aluminum production in China of 2.996 million tons, down 3.1 per cent from a year earlier.
Primary lead production was 250500 tonnes in May 2018, up 3.67 per cent from a month earlier and down 14.10 per cent from a year earlier.
Primary lead production rose in May, mainly as a result of the completion of maintenance by most primary lead smelters in April and their gradual recovery in May. Such as Hechi South, Hunan Shuikoushan, Jiangxi Copper Industry, Henan Xinling and other enterprises finished maintenance, at the same time, some refineries in Yunnan completed rectification and rehabilitation. Henan Jinli, Hunan Jingui, Chifeng Mountain Gold, Western Mining and so on were overhauled in May, and some refineries were short-term restricted by environmental protection production, so the increase in output was not as good as expected. (in addition, SMM has revised the production data as a result of sample adjustments).
Looking forward to June, on the one hand, the smelting enterprises will resume work after overhaul, such as Chihong zinc and germanium, Hunan Jingui, western mining, Shaanxi Dongling and other enterprises will gradually resume production contribution in June; On the other hand, if Anhui copper crown will carry out equipment technical reform in June, Jiangxi Jinde plans to repair. In addition, recently, the Central Environmental Protection Inspection Group is carrying out a month-long "looking back" inspection work in Henan, Yunnan, and other places. Among them, Henan Province has gathered a large number of large primary lead smelting enterprises, such as Jiyuan City, due to environmental protection, local smelting enterprises limited production by 30%, which will drag down June production, SMM expects primary lead production to fall to 239700 tons.
In May 2018, SMM China produced 423100 tons of refined zinc, down 4.83 per cent from the previous month and 0.81 per cent higher than the same period last year.
In May, the output of a few enterprises gradually recovered after overhauling, and the maintenance of tetracycline zinc-germanium, Shaanxi Dongling, and Shaanxi zinc industries continued. the main enterprises that increased or reduced production or overhauled were Yuguang Zinc Industry, Silver Nonferrous Metals, and other enterprises, and the overall output had a greater impact. This portion has been reduced by more than 30,000 tons. Main reasons: on the one hand, the first quarter refinery maintenance is less, the second quarter of some refineries gradually began conventional maintenance; On the other hand, in addition to conventional maintenance, some refineries are affected by low zinc prices and low processing fees, production profits gradually narrow, occasional losses, maintenance planning ahead of schedule or take the initiative to reduce production.
In June, more smelters were restored, such as overhaul. SMM expects domestic refined zinc production to increase by 17100 tons to 440300 tons in June from a month earlier, an increase of 4.05 percent over the same period last year and a decrease of 4.82 percent over the same period last year.
In May, the country's natural monthly output of electrolytic nickel was 12200 tons, down 2.1 percent from the same period last year, and the cumulative output from January to May was 59400 tons, down 8.6 percent from the same period last year. The output of electrolytic nickel in May increased by 2.5% compared with that in April. due to the increase of natural days, the production did not change obviously. According to SMM preliminary research, the national electrolytic nickel production may remain normal in June, SMM expects to produce 11900 tons in June, 2.5 per cent lower than the previous month.
Nickel pig iron
In May, China's nickel pig iron production fell 8.3 per cent from a month earlier to 37300 nickel tons, an increase of 36.2 per cent over the same period last year. From January to May, the country's nickel pig iron output was 187300 nickel tons, an increase of 19.2 percent over the same period last year. In May, high nickel pig iron decreased by 7.83 per cent to 33000 nickel tons, while low nickel pig iron production decreased by 11.4 per cent to 4300 nickel tons.
This month's decline in production is closely related to environmental protection, including Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Guangdong and other provinces. As a result of the environmental "look back" of the Central Inspection Group, production continued to decline in June, with SMM predicting a 10.8 per cent month-on-month reduction of 10.8 per cent to 33300 tons.
Refined tin production in May was 14629 tons, an increase of 3.0 percent over April. with the gradual recovery of tin imports in May, the shortage of domestic tin supply eased, and tin prices rose sharply in late May. So that some tin smelting enterprises production enthusiasm heating up. However, the growth in production from the previous month has been limited, and recent domestic environmental retrospect actions and low processing fees with tin ore have inhibited the release of production. SMM expects to produce about 14200 tons in June, taking into account the short-term shutdown and overhaul of Huaxi and individual tin plants in Jiangxi.
Production of metal products in May 2018
1) Research methods
SMM production survey is by professional analysts by telephone, field research and other means, regular monthly tracking of Chinese metal production enterprises, and to issue a Chinese metal production report.
In the process of investigation, ensure the basic coverage of the sample, and continue to expand; at the same time, considering the scale of production capacity, geographical distribution, the nature of the enterprise and other details of the reasonable selection and distribution of samples, so that each sub-data are representative.
Production data include last month's output (initial value), last month's output (revised value) and the current month's production scheduling forecast. In general, SMM rarely modifies the yield, that is, the correction value = the initial value, but still retains the possibility of correction.