SMM5 30: tin prices have been stretching violently in recent days, mainly because the market generally believes that Myanmar shipments will decline sharply this year. Compared with the soaring domestic tin prices, LME tin has been falling continuously. recently, LME March tin fell below the domestic spot tin price for the first time. according to data at 3 p.m. on May 30, the average domestic spot tin price is 151000 yuan per ton. LME's three-month tin fell to $20480 a tonne, equivalent to the latest dollar against the renminbi 6.4294 to close at 131674.11 yuan / tonne, SMM/LME ratio as high as 7.26.
LmeS tin 3
SMM spot tin price
Lunxi's continued decline is mainly due to the increase in Indonesian exports. the SMM24 article "Indonesia's Export resumes inventory growth and Lunxi trend is under pressure downward" mentioned in the article "Indonesia's Export resumes inventory growth" on the 24th. The volume of tin traded by (ICDX), the Indonesian commodity and derivatives exchange, rose 251.2 percent on May 23 compared with the same period in April. Indonesia's low exports in April were affected by delays in the renewal of export licenses caused by amendments to the Indonesian government's export regulations. However, the issue of the renewal of export licences was resolved in early May, with the previous backlog of inventories being sold in large quantities in May and exports rising sharply. As a result, LME inventories increased and LME tin prices fell under pressure. Lunxi trend continues to be under pressure.
In fact, the reversal of the period also reflects the deep concern of the domestic market about tin supply. However, so far, according to customs data, tin ore imports totaled 72000 tons (real volume) in the January-March period this year, an increase of 19.3 percent over the same period last year. although the import volume in March was only 2000 metal tons, But there are also factors that lead to the late resumption of work in WA after the Spring Festival. The import volume for April has not yet been announced, but according to SMM's understanding with local people in Gejiu and WA State, the import volume in April was higher than that in March, and the import volume in May is expected to continue to be higher than in April, due to different statistical caliber. More talk now tends to exceed 4000 metric tons of metal. Overall, imports of tin ore recovered from April to May. Although the supply of high-grade tin ore is in short supply, there is no indication that the smelter has reduced its production on a large scale. Concentrate processing fees decreased compared with the same period in previous years, but the smelter has not indicated that it has a plan to reduce production because of factors such as by-product profits and shutdown costs. "View details
At the same time, for the demand side, Wu Xiaofeng, senior analyst at Shanghai Colored Network Tin, believes that in recent years, the main downstream of tin lacks growth points, so the overall consumption is relatively stable and even some areas have shrunk. The main areas of solder consumption include electronic semiconductors and other industries; in the electronic industry, smartphones, tablets and so on have a greater pulling effect on this piece. As the market tends to saturate and the iterative demand for the product decreases, the pull force decreases; in addition, the miniaturization and thinning of the overall product is not conducive to the increase in the amount of tin used per unit. Tinplate industry, tinning industry has been in a state of overcapacity, consumption is stable and weak. The chemical industry is limited by the relevant policies, the growth of demand is facing bottlenecks, and the environmental protection inspection in the past two years has greatly affected its production, and its consumption of tin ingots has slowed down. The lead-acid battery industry, on the other hand, is weakened by competition from new energy batteries and changes in related subsidy policies. Generally speaking, the consumption of rigid demand downstream of tin is stable and weak, especially the slow consumption of tin ingots in the spot market so far this year. environmental protection and export trade resistance and other factors will affect the start-up situation and order demand of downstream enterprises.
SMM believes that the current market tin ingot inventory is still on the high side. According to the inventory announced in the previous period and the smelter inventory according to SMM statistics, the market tin ingot inventory is expected to reach about 15000 tons. According to SMM's tracking of the comparison of spot buying and selling forces, the buyer: seller is 32 ≤ 68 in the current market, indicating that there is no shortage of goods in the spot market.
At the same time, according to the research report of Guohai Securities, the supply of tin ore in China has increased slightly. Part of the increase is mainly due to the production of Xingye Mining Yinman Mine and the increase in production in some small mines, totaling about 5000 tons.
Overall, SMM believes that it is biased to judge the continued rise in tin prices by the decline in the supply of tin ore in Myanmar alone, and that the future trend of tin prices should be observed more calmly.