SMM5 25: this week junior high school negotiations made progress, reached a consensus not to fight a trade war, but Trump kept talking, dissatisfied with the outcome of the Sino-US negotiations, the cancellation of the "special gold meeting", making the global uncertainty increased; Despite the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, the unexpected increase in EIA stocks has led the market to re-evaluate the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil. the high level of crude oil has fallen back and stabilized at US $70 per barrel, and the US index has been consolidated strongly near 94. in addition to the dazzling stimulus of lead performance, Other metals basically show an interval oscillation pattern. Lun lead volume rose 7.34% in the week, Shanghai lead accelerated upward has broken through 20,000 mark, the biggest weekly increase was 5.8%, SMMI.Pb week rose 4.74%, increased shipments at high prices. The performance of the rest of the metals was similar, with Lun Ni rising, touching a high of US $15055 per ton, brushing its highest level in the new moon, Shanghai Nickel refreshing a three-year high of 110000 yuan, spot Jinchuan Company up 1600 yuan / ton, and SMMI.Ni up 1.54% in the week. Tin was unexpectedly favored by short, up 1.1 per cent a week, but the spot discount expanded, with SMMI.Sn up 0.87 per cent a week. Copper interval concussion pattern, copper disk surface washed back down, water first promoted and then suppressed, SMMI.Cu rose 0.64% in the week. There was no bright spot on the aluminum disk, but the discount was stable under the sharp drop in spot inventories, and transactions were acceptable, especially when buying at low prices, which supported prices, and SMMI.Al rose 0.14 percent in the week. Zinc, which is very different from lead during the week, is not led by the rise in lead. on the contrary, due to the impact of imported zinc and the fragility of the disk, the spot discount is falling day by day, and SMMI.Zn is down 0.29 per cent per week. SMMI rose 0.9% during the week, lead and nickel are likely to remain strong next week, and the volatility characteristics of the rest of the metal range remain unchanged.
Copper: this week Lun copper as a whole still maintains the interval concussion pattern, the amplitude expands. The news of the Sino-US settlement boosted investor confidence at the beginning of the week, and the eurozone economic data were lower than expected. the dollar closed negative and copper closed positive for the second day in a row, climbing to an intraweek high of $6999 a tonne. The high led to profit-taking, coupled with a sharp rise in the dollar and pressure to return to the 94-point mark, sending copper down 1.84 per cent in a single day to a low of $6805 a tonne, slowly recovering to a range of $6,850-$6,900 after being supported by integer levels. At present, it is trapped in the 5-day moving average, the lower moving average group is staggered, and the MACD is pierced. As of press time, transactions this week increased by 2052 hands to 71000 hands, positions increased by 3671 hands to 318000 hands.
Domestic data are light this week. Shanghai copper side closely followed the trend of the external market jumped in many places, the overall trend of rushing high and falling back. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai copper stood at 51000 yuan / ton, rose back after touching a high of 52180 yuan / ton in the week, and fell back to 51350 yuan / ton in a concussion arrangement. at present, the main force of Shanghai copper is trapped in the 5-day moving average, and there is a certain support for the adhesion of the lower moving average. This week MACD changed from green to red, and the overall market attention has increased compared with last week. Trading volume in the Shanghai copper index rose to more than 300000 hands per day during the week, up significantly from last week.
In the spot market, at the beginning of this week, the Sino-US trade war was reconciled, the market risk was reduced, and the market bullish mood was significantly improved. coupled with the enthusiastic demand for the delivery of long orders by traders, the mood of the cargo holders was high, and the offer was priced at 50 yuan ~ 20 yuan per ton. However, the high disk surface and the rising water state make the source of goods gush out, and the willingness to exchange cash is greatly increased. the downstream maintains a rigid demand to receive the goods, and the monthly long single transaction basically enters the end on the 25th, and the spot price is like a flash in the pan. The offer was cut all the way to 110 or 30 yuan per ton before falling into a stalemate. After the week, most of the market transactions are the demand of the monthly invoice. when the price difference between the monthly ticket and the next monthly ticket is about 20 yuan / ton, the supply of the next monthly ticket will increase, and there will be a lot of room for price reduction.
Aluminum: due to the lack of prominent and clear bad news, aluminum prices maintain a volatile pattern. Lun Al, although Rusal Oleg Deripaska resigned as a non-executive director, but it is still difficult to predict how the US sanctions against Rusal will develop, so this week continued to narrow the market, below the 40-day moving average, down 2239 US dollars, trapped between the average. Running at $2,250 per ton, the Shanghai-London ratio rebounded to around 6.5.
On the Shanghai aluminum side, aluminum prices first suppressed and then rose during the week. at the beginning of the week, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum hit a low of 14500 yuan / ton, and then 14500 yuan / ton integer gate support began to show, with a sharp decline in inventory, and the low multi-head protection plate was obvious. Pushed up aluminum prices to repair the decline to 14800 yuan / ton, the month reduced more than 30, 000 hands, 1809 contract positions increased slightly.
On the spot side, most of the downstream of the week remained on-demand procurement, inventory fell sharply, prices fell when there was buying interest at low prices, so the transaction activity during the week was acceptable, and the discount stabilized between 80 and 50 yuan per ton.
Lead: this week, the price of lead rose in one fell swoop, breaking through the previous concussion platform, up 7.34% a week, brushing a new three-month high, and then narrowing the Shanghai margin. At the beginning of the week, the amount of Lun lead rose one after another, breaking through the early pressure platform in one fell swoop, standing at the $2400 mark, and the market's long mood was ignited, which also laid the foundation for this week's strong pattern of Lun lead. on Wednesday, Lun Pb changed hands and tidied up, consuming some of the unstable chips. The next two days, Lun lead worked hard to break through the $2500 mark, but Lun lead rose too fast, there was an obvious throwing pressure above $2500, and then basically in 2500 yuan concussion finishing, as of Friday 15; 46. Lun Pb closed at $2500 a tonne, increasing its position by 2122 hands to 117102 hands. Lun lead changed the previous weak concussion pattern, breaking through the platform all the way up, the trend has gone well, next week to focus on the dollar and Shanghai lead trend, is expected to range from 2400 to 2,550 dollars per ton.
This week, the Shanghai lead 1807 contract accelerated upward, the market long sentiment reached a climax, the rally has shown signs of breaking away from the fundamentals, the entry of speculative funds in the market is obvious, the number of positions was once close to 80, 000 hands. Shanghai lead 07 contract is a breakthrough of 20,000 yuan in one fell swoop, the trend led by non-ferrous metals. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai lead continued its long mood last week, rising 2.67 percent in two days, attracting speculative incremental funds in the market. on Wednesday, Shanghai lead's high fell back, and market sentiment cooled somewhat, but on Thursday, the main bulls reversed the Wednesday positive line in one fell swoop. And broke through the upper 20, 000 yuan pressure barrier, giving the market long positions confidence, and Friday Shanghai lead high close on the shadow cross star, long empty obvious differences, finally closed at 19995 yuan / ton, the position increased by 25658 hands to 78102 hands. Shanghai lead continues to accelerate upward, long positions cost fault, other short positions and more long positions, coupled with spot high prices dismal transactions, inventories did not continue to decline, taken together, Shanghai lead may fall back next week. The range is expected to be 195,020,500 yuan per ton.
This week spot lead mainstream transactions at 19895 ≤ 20,500 yuan / ton. This week the lead price strong does not change, the primary lead refinery bulk single price shipment, the quotation maintains to the SMM1# lead average price level to rise water 100 yuan / ton; Although the trade market inventory is not much, but lead prices rose sharply, the enthusiasm of shippers rose, to Friday quoted to Shanghai lead 1806 contract discount 100 to 50 yuan / ton; The environmental protection impact of the regenerated lead market is slightly slower, the enthusiasm of the regenerated lead refinery is increased, and the transaction price of regenerated refined lead is reduced to near the average price of SMM1# lead. Downstream, battery market demand is general, while lead prices are high, downstream delivery is cautious and tends to wait and see, some of which turn to recycled lead.
Next week, spot lead may be traded at 1960020500 yuan / ton. The supply of primary lead refineries is limited, and the price mood of bulk orders will not change next week; the trade market is still in short supply, the quotation of the cargo holder is on the market, and the quotation is stable; the environmental protection impact of the recycled lead market is fluctuating, and the price difference of regenerated fine lead is expected to stabilize next week; Downstream, the battery market consumption recovery is limited, the downstream of the material to maintain on-demand caution. The recycled refined lead material will be sold at 1950020500 yuan / ton next week.
Zinc: this week Lun zinc under the $3000 / ton integer level, out of the consolidation platform under pressure operation. At the beginning of the week, the risk mood returned, Lun Zn took the opportunity to rush up 3122 US dollars per ton, the relatively high level triggered a long stop, Lun Zn fell back, struggling to consolidate around 3100 US dollars / ton, because the fundamentals of Lun Zinc were relatively fragile, and the United States Index continued to test the station on 94. Lunzin weakened to around $3160 per tonne to suspend the decline, followed by a small dive of $3001 / tonne, a long and tacit understanding did not further explore the psychological support strength of 3000 yuan / tonne, and a narrow range of low return gains around $3025 / tonne. As of Friday, trading volume had fallen by about 5258 hands to about 36940 hands, and positions had increased by about 5258 hands to about 291000 hands.
The renminbi depreciated to around 6.39 this week as a result of a basket of currencies. This week Shanghai zinc main 1807 contract three consecutive negative after the repair, the center of gravity moved down obviously. At the beginning of the week, Shanghai zinc broke 24000 yuan / ton pressure level up 24080 yuan / ton, but the high long profit left, coupled with the short position attack, Shanghai zinc in 24000 yuan / ton along the two struggles have not been able to stand firm and fall back; Weak upward, coupled with light consumption pressure, more into the empty, Shanghai zinc weak concussion operation center of gravity sank to 23620 yuan / ton, followed by a sharp decline in lead, Wednesday night Shanghai zinc opened low down 23285 yuan / ton, low short to stop earnings. Shanghai zinc rose back to 23440 yuan / ton of narrow finishing operation, tentative high recovery of 23500 yuan / ton support level. As of Friday, trading volume in the Shanghai Zinc Index had fallen 169000 to 2.482 million, while positions rose 15460 to 479000.
This week, the contract between 0 # zinc and Shanghai zinc 1806 in Shanghai market changed from 160 yuan / ton to 90 yuan / ton, and 0 # Shuangyan changed from 170 yuan / ton to 110 yuan / ton in June and 110 yuan / ton to 110 yuan / ton in June. The quotation of imported zinc is about 50 × 70 yuan / ton for rising water and 30 × 50 yuan / ton for rising water, with little change. This week, the three consecutive negative falls in Shanghai zinc stabilized, and this week's long orders were completed one after another. in addition, some delivery sources flowed out, the relationship between supply and demand in the market improved, and the quotation gradually went down. after the zinc price fell in the middle of the week, some refineries were unable to sell, but the circulation of imported zinc was still relatively large. Quotation changes little, the overall supply pressure is not great, the downstream weak aftermarket to maintain on-demand procurement, demand performance is weak, this week the overall volume of transactions fell slightly compared with last week.
This week, Guangdong 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc main 1807 contract from last week 150 ≤ 180 yuan / ton of water to 320 ≤ 350 yuan / ton, Guangdong than Shanghai market from last week's discount of 50 yuan / ton to about 10 yuan / ton. Zinc prices are still weak this week, with the center of gravity slightly lower than last week. Refinery shipments are normal, because the monthly difference structure changes greatly, the trading volume between traders is slightly light. Downstream on-demand procurement, the volume of transactions increased slightly compared with last week, the market as a whole is flat, trading activity has improved slightly compared with last week.
This week Tianjin market 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1806 contract compared with last week's rise of 80 million yuan / ton is basically flat, little change. Tianjin market compared with Shanghai market from last week around 50 yuan / ton discount to about flat water, Tianjin and Shanghai price difference narrowed by 50 yuan / ton compared with last week. This week zinc price center of gravity slightly makes the downward low to maintain the concussion situation. Some northern refineries are still being overhauled, the arrival volume has been reduced, and traders are mainly shipping. This week zinc price trend is slightly repeated, downstream to wait-and-see mentality, the willingness to take goods is flat, the volume of transactions in the market has not changed much compared with last week, the overall transaction has not improved compared with last week.
Tin: Lunxi continued its decline this week, hitting as low as $20260 a tonne, closing at $20360 a tonne on Thursday, down $315 a tonne from Thursday. A total of 1721 hands were traded during the week, up 255 hands from last week, and 17399 positions were down 27 hands from last week. The volume of tin traded by (ICDX), the Indonesian commodity and derivatives exchange, rose 251.2 percent on May 23 compared with the same period in April. Indonesia's low export volume in April was affected by delays in the renewal of export licenses as a result of amendments to the Indonesian government's export regulations. However, the issue of the renewal of export licences was resolved in early May, with the previous backlog of inventories being sold in large quantities in May and exports rising sharply. As a result, LME tin stocks continued to rise and LME spot water continued to fall, from $65 a tonne on Thursday to $20 a tonne on Thursday.
This week, the main Shanghai tin 1809 contract performed a strong rise and then fell back. in the first four trading days, it rose sharply, hitting as high as 148240 yuan per tonne. on Thursday night, the evening market began to be affected by the downturn in the external market, and the Shanghai tin rally was hampered. Trading fell rapidly on Friday to close at 146540 yuan a tonne, up 1560 yuan, or 1.1 per cent, from Friday. The total turnover of 90244 hands increased by 26652 hands over the previous week, and the position of 28214 hands increased by 6 hands compared with the previous week. This round of bulls come and go in a hurry, showing that bulls are very cautious and are likely to face shocks in the short term.
Spot tin prices fell back this week following a series of gains in Shanghai, with the biggest gains on Thursday, hitting 144,500 yuan per tonne as high as 144,500 yuan per tonne, falling back to 144,000 yuan per tonne on Friday, up 1250 yuan per tonne from Friday. Although most of the price increases during the week, but the overall market transactions are weak, especially Thursday's rapid rise in the downstream currency holding wait-and-see atmosphere warmed up, weak domestic demand led to Thursday afternoon spot weak follow-up, the period discount sharply expanded. The mainstream discount expanded to 1700 ≤ 4000 yuan / ton, and the demand from traders warmed up. On Friday, spot prices also fell as the Shanghai tin rally was blocked and concussed, and the discount narrowed again to 1000 or 3000 yuan per tonne. The market is still in a pattern of oversupply, with limited momentum for short-term spot gains.
Nickel: Sino-US trade relations eased this week, the dollar rose momentum, this week to a five-month high, rushed back down, still high volatility. But the good news that China and the United States avoided a trade war, LME and domestic inventories continued to shrink, the spread of news of the closure of intermediate frequency furnaces in Jiangsu Province on Friday, and expectations of a reduction in production of nickel pig iron in Linyi gradually materialized, pushing nickel prices higher as a result of positive sentiment in the overall market. After Monday's opening, Lun Ni fluctuated up and down the daily moving average as the dollar fell back against the dollar, moving upward as a whole. After the second half of the week, constrained by the continued rise in the dollar, Lun nickel concussion fell, hitting a low of $14430 / ton, back on the 10 antenna to be supported, turned back up, the center of gravity on the daily average consolidation. On Friday morning, affected by environmental protection at home and dwindling LME inventories, Lenny pulled up, hitting a high of $15055 a tonne, a new moon high. As of 17: 30, the weekly K line closed at Zhongyang Star at $14900 a tonne, down 2.46 per cent from last week. Trading volume decreased by 8245 hands to 28000 hands, while position volume increased by 8988 hands to 254000 hands.
This week, the main Shanghai nickel 1807 contract opened at 110320 yuan / tonne, the first half of the week by the continued rise in the United States dollar, Shanghai nickel has been around the daily moving average up and down, weak operation. In the second half of the week, due to the advantage of avoiding a trade war between China and the United States, the continuous decline in LME and domestic inventories, the spread of news of the closure of intermediate frequency furnaces in Jiangsu Province on Friday, and the expected reduction in production of Linyi nickel pig iron, the overall market sentiment pushed up nickel prices. Touch the high of 111660 yuan per ton, a three-year high. As of Friday morning, the weekly K line closed at 109880 yuan per ton. Volume fell 391000 to 3.038 million and positions fell 52000 to 343000, down 5.75% from last week's gain.
Spot market, this week Jinchuan company shipping enthusiasm can, Shanghai quotation from Friday's 109000 yuan / ton slightly raised to 110600 yuan / ton, a cumulative increase of 1600 yuan / ton. Jinchuan nickel than Wuxi main 1806 contract water rise about 650 yuan / ton, Russian nickel than Wuxi 1806 contract water rise about 550 yuan / ton. Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel contract water price difference is still small, on the one hand, import windows continue to close, Russian nickel quantity continues to decrease, the price is relatively strong. On the other hand, affected by the squeeze effect, the market needs to deliver 177000 tons, the deliverable quantity is only 28000 tons, Russian nickel is lower than Jinchuan nickel price, the degree of market availability is easy, resulting in increased demand for Russian nickel, the price is strong. Within the week, due to nickel prices are still high concussion, downstream enterprises are more on the sidelines, the demand is general, only on-demand procurement, the week's transaction activity is general.
Note: this article is only part of the SMM Weekly Bulletin, for more information
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