SMM May 22: Shanghai lead main contract 1807 last night continued unstoppable posture, release upward, the highest point in the session hit 19700 yuan / ton, up more than 2.1%. Since May, lead prices have been advancing by leaps and bounds, Shanghai and Guangdong lead ingot inventory, the previous period of inventory and domestic social inventory continued to decline is the main reason.
Environmental restriction affects the Social inventory of Primary lead decreases again and again
According to SMM, as of May 18, 2018, China's primary lead social inventory stood at 19000 tons, down nearly 2000 tons from last week.
Social inventories remain low: first of all, according to SMM research, since May 9, environmental protection groups have re-entered Guizhou, Jiangxi, Anhui, and other areas, and some recycled lead refineries have been shut down, which is expected to affect daily production of more than 1500 tons (Guizhou, Jiangxi, Anhui). In addition, the price of regenerated lead is rising, compared with 1 # lead close to flat water position, market procurement gradually flow to primary lead.
Second, although some of the primary lead smelters have been overhauled, the shortage of recycled lead will offset the increase in production restored by this part of the smelter.
Furthermore, in May, lead prices continued to rise, stimulating dealers to buy higher stores, downstream battery manufacturers inventory part of the transfer, in addition to downstream manufacturers worried that lead prices continue to rise in the later period, some downstream manufacturers replenish the warehouse at low prices. It is expected that there may be a possibility of further decline in social inventories at a later stage.
Lead stocks in the previous period fell by more than 5000 tons a week
As of May 18, 154.58 million tons of lead ingots in the previous period were down 5185 tons, or 25.11 per cent, from the previous week.
Lead ingot stocks in Shanghai and Guangdong fell another 1000 tons
Inventories of lead ingots in Shanghai and Guangdong fell more than 1000 tonnes to 11400 tonnes last week from the week before last week and more than 40 tonnes lower than in the same period last year. Zhejiang warehouse inventories fell nearly 2000 tons. The main reason is that the environmental protection situation in the recycled lead market is grim, and as a result of the "looking back" of the central environmental protection inspection, the resumption of work at the recycled lead refinery has been delayed, and the downstream procurement demand continues to flow to primary lead. At present, the supply of primary lead refineries continues to be tight, and it is difficult for holders to replenish their stores. at the same time, it is difficult to alleviate the environmental protection of the recycled lead market for the time being. it is expected that social inventories will continue to decline next week.
Overnight volume prices rise, trading volume will exceed yesterday's total trading volume, the market long sentiment is still in the climax stage, 1806 contracts overnight is to break through the 20000 yuan / ton mark, is expected to maintain a high concussion collation in the short term. The market looks too consistent, at the same time, we should pay attention to the ebb period after the release of the climax mood.
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