SMM5, April 6: Shanghai copper closed at 51560 yuan / ton on April 27. it closed at 51290 yuan / ton on May 4, down 0.52 percent from Friday. So what will copper prices do next week?
SMM exclusive prediction
Copper prices are likely to remain volatile next week. Focus on euro-zone economic data compared with April PPI and CPI in the United States. Continued gains in the dollar index this week, as eurozone economic data weakened, high Treasury yields and expectations of a Fed rate rise in June, provided a strong support for the dollar. The dollar is expected to move strongly next week, continuing to put pressure on the copper market. With regard to the trade war, the negotiations between China and the United States began this week, and there is still room for further negotiations. the two sides will maintain the process of communication. it is expected that the negotiation process may continue for a period of time, and there will be no obvious easing trend in the short term. Lun copper side runs most of the week below the EMA, climbing the 5-day EMA over the weekend, the upper EMA is dense, the pressure is heavy, and the technology shows that it is easy to fall and difficult to rise. At the same time, a large number of long profits took place on Friday, further weakening Luncun's upward momentum. Overall, the instability of the macro environment still makes the air force slightly better, with Lun Copper expected to run at an overall range of $6,750 to $6,920 a tonne next week.
Domestically, next week focus on China's April CPI and PPI month-on-month comparisons. The decline in SHFE copper stocks ended this week, up 14953 tonnes from last week to 264685 tonnes. The smelter will increase shipments in East China after entering May, and according to SMM research, the downstream operation rate is expected to continue to run at a high level in May, but the month-on-month decline has weakened the ability to push up copper prices. On the technical level, Shanghai copper as a whole this week between the average, the bottom has not found technical support, while this week's short strength significantly increased, bearish copper prices. Shanghai copper is expected to maintain a volatile trend as a whole next week, the main operation of Shanghai copper in the range of 50500 ≤ 52,000 yuan / ton.
Spot, next week is close to delivery, the current month 1805 contracts and 1806 contracts spread in about 200 yuan / ton, next week the holder's price psychology still exists, looking forward to close to the delivery of rising water level. However, as far as this week is concerned, demand is weak, especially downstream, the willingness to replenish has not been reflected, it is difficult to support the rapid expansion of quotations. At the same time, SHFE increased by 15000 tons this week. in addition to the centralized arrival of smelters, there are also the latest customs clearance of imported copper in the near future. all major traders will have a certain amount of inventory increase next week, which may drag down the lifting speed on the water. Restrain the upward expansion of water. Overall, it is expected that under the premise of approaching delivery, next week's spot quotation may be 30 yuan / ton of discount-70 yuan / ton of water, and the willingness to exchange cash will be gradually enhanced, but the actual consumption buying may not necessarily increase synchronously, and the state of supply and demand will continue to be sawed.