SMM, 4 May:
Copper: important data in the United States continued to improve this week, while eurozone data weakened and the dollar index continued to strengthen, breaking through the 92 mark. At the same time, Sino-US trade negotiations opened to ease market sentiment. Lun copper as a whole rallied, down $6710 a tonne on Tuesday. affected by rumours of a settlement in the Sino-US trade war on Thursday, the disk rose sharply and hit a high of $6927.5 a tonne, trapped in the entanglement of various averages. The copper center of gravity has shifted lower this week than it was before the festival, but has recovered some of its losses during the holiday season. Volume decreased by 23000 hands to 72000 hands, while positions increased by 1394 hands to 313000 hands.
Domestic manufacturing PMI reported higher-than-expected in April, boosting market confidence. Shanghai copper, the main position on Thursday completed a new month, the month of the contract continued to decline. Shanghai copper main company this week first suppressed and then rose, the overall interval concussion situation has not changed. Affected by the May 1 holiday, Shanghai copper was dragged down by the outside market after the opening of the market on Wednesday. it fell as low as 50700 yuan per ton at the opening of the market, and its return to rise after the week was blocked by 51500 yuan per ton. In the same month, the contract and the 1806 contract maintained a significant reduction in positions and moved back. 1807 contract volume fell 109000 to 312000 this week, while positions rose 25000 to 195000.
On the spot side, there are only three trading days this week. When they returned after the festival, the holder still had a high price at the beginning of the plate. the quotation was slightly expanded from 40 yuan to 20 yuan for the opening of the market to 60 yuan to 10 yuan per ton for lack of people to receive the goods. Those who are eager to exchange mainly come from the profit closing of the pre-festival buying and selling period. on the second day, the disk is low concussion, some replenishment occurs, the market transaction atmosphere is slightly warmer, at the weekend, the disk low picks up, and the holder replenishes the value of the goods every other day and is hedged. But once again, the spot price narrowed slightly to 30 yuan ~ 10 yuan. The market wait-and-see mood continues, the holder has tried to attract downstream buyers with low discount wet copper, but the downstream dabble, the transaction did not see the expected post-festival replenishment, the transaction is mostly trade replenishment demand. During the week, the market activity is still not good, during which the supply and demand saw state is increasing day by day.
Aluminum: Lun Aluminum is on the strong side this week, since the low of 2220 US dollars / ton near the beginning of the week, the upward climb has been blocked by 2354 US dollars / ton, once getting rid of the entanglement of the average of all roads. But then because of the strength of the US dollar fell back to the 20-day line and 2300 US dollars / ton integer level concussion, Zhou Nailun aluminum position from 735000 hands slightly increased to 740000 hands near.
This week, the domestic only for three trading days, aluminum prices rely on the 20th line to support the bottom of a small rise, but still in the interval concussion pattern. On the first trading day after the festival, Shanghai Aluminum followed Lun Aluminum to make up for the decline and opened a narrow range of concussions. after Lun Aluminum rose sharply on Wednesday night, Shanghai Aluminum opened high above the 20-day line, and then entered the concussion market again. during the week, the Shanghai Aluminum 1807 contract ran in an operating range of 14,375 yuan per ton. The Shanghai Aluminum Index increased its position to 743000 hands from around 738000 hands.
On the spot side, because there are only three trading days after the Labor Day, on the one hand, there is a demand for replenishment after the festival, on the other hand, it is necessary to stock up for the coming weekend, so the spot market is more active and remains at a discount of 50 or 20 yuan per ton.
Lead: this week Lun lead showed a concussion downward trend, technical surface Lun lead pressure averages, short-term upward pressure is greater. At the beginning of the week, affected by the positive economic data in the United States, the US dollar continued to strengthen, and Lun Pb was under pressure, once reaching a low of nearly one-year low of US $2241 / ton, closing at three consecutive negatives. in the second half of the week, it stabilized after a low lead probe, and on Thursday it opened low and went high to close at the Xiaoyang line. Halting the negative decline, as of 15: 30 on Friday, Lun Pb closed at 2264.5 US dollars / ton, down 3.52% a week. Lun Pb broke a new low for nearly a year this week and had more room for fall. below, it looked at the support strength of the US $2200 integer level for the time being. The range is expected to be $2220 to $2,330 per tonne. Next week's focus on the continued strength of the dollar and the outcome of Sino-US trade talks may have a big impact on the lead trend.
This week, the Shanghai lead 1806 contract is three trading days. This week, Shanghai lead and Lun lead trend deviated, basically showing a concussion upward trend. On the first day of trading, Shanghai lead closed at the Dayang line, up 1.2 percent, and the center of gravity moved upward as a whole, thus laying the foundation for this week's rise. the next two days, Shanghai lead concussion collated, digested part of the profit market, and closed at a long shadow line on both days. Shanghai lead was active near the 5th line below, closing at 18550 yuan / ton, up 0.99% per week. weekly trading volume increased by 8910 hands to 42816 hands, and position increased by 3114 hands to 58160 hands. 5, 10 line trend upward, short-term technical point of view there is upward momentum, but at the same time, we should pay attention to if Lun lead continues to go down, import lead window or open, and then affect the domestic lead price upward force. The expected range is 18200 ≤ 18,700 yuan / ton.
This week spot lead mainstream transactions at 18600 ≤ 18,750 yuan / ton. This week is the lead price strong concussion, the refinery because of the limited supply, bulk single more price shipment, to maintain the rising water quotation; The supply of goods in the trade market is limited, the holder continues to quote high water, at the same time, because of the regional shortage of recycled lead, some of the demand flows to primary lead; Due to the aggravation of environmental protection and the high cost of raw materials in the regenerated lead market, refineries are more expensive to ship, and the average price difference of regenerated refined lead to SMM1# lead continues to narrow near flat water. Downstream, the battery market demand is weak, some storage enterprises once again cut the operating rate, but because the price difference advantage of regenerated lead is no longer, part of the demand is transferred to primary lead.
Next week, spot lead may be traded at 18350 ≤ 18,850 yuan / ton. After the maintenance and repair of the primary lead refinery, the supply is still limited, the mood of bulk single shipment price is not changed, the trade market because of the small supply of goods, the cargo holder cherishes the sale at a low price, maintains the high water quotation, at the same time, the social inventory material maintains the low level; The recycled lead market has not been alleviated because of environmental protection, coupled with the limited supply of waste batteries, the price difference of recycled refined lead has remained stable for the time being. Downstream, battery market consumption shows no sign of warming for the time being, storage enterprises are more cautious procurement, at the same time, because of the price difference between primary and recycled lead narrowed, and tend to hang upside down, procurement demand may tend to primary lead. Recycled lead concentrate will be sold at 18300 ≤ 18,750 yuan / ton next week.
Zinc: this week, the US index rose above 92, Sino-US trade talks are about to fall to the ground, while another uncertain factor Iran nuclear agreement negotiations are still inconclusive, there is still the risk of collapse, high oil prices, basic metals operation differentiation. This week Lun zinc four consecutive negative center of gravity moved down, once lost $3000 / ton mark. At the beginning of the week, due to the closure of International Labour Day's China market on May 1, Lunzin's independent operation fell back, and Zhouchu's Lunzin zinc was still around US $3140 / tonne. subsequently, the LME zinc inventory stopped rising and fell in reverse, and the pressure on Lunzin was obvious after a short-term increase of US $3189.5 / ton. In addition, the United States index strongly broke the 92 mark, and Lunzin fell all the way to 3100 US dollars per tonne. the support sought by the integer side stopped falling and consolidated, and still failed to stand firm, making up for the decline of 3044 US dollars per ton to refresh the low value of the year, and the low price triggered a capital revolt. Lun Zn rose back to 3100 US dollars / ton for consolidation, and the toughness of 3100 US dollars / ton position gradually waned. in the second half of the week, the operation range of Lun Zinc moved down to 3,050 US dollars / ton, the upward trend was weak, short funds took the opportunity to sell, and the broken position of Lun Zinc fell by 2994 US dollars per ton. The $3000 / ton mark is still supported and slightly repaired by Lunzin. As of Friday, the trading volume of Lunzin increased by about 2924 hands to about 51838 hands, and the position increased by about 1496 hands to about 288000 hands.
This week Shanghai zinc completed the main replacement, Shanghai zinc main 1807 contract extended 5 days line down, down 23000 yuan / ton integer support strength. At the beginning of the week, due to the suspension of the market for two days on May 1, International Labour Day, Shanghai Zinc now made up for a decline in zinc and made up for a foreign market probe of 23460 yuan / tonne, and gradually bought funds entered the market every low. the ladder strength of Shanghai Zinc touched 23900 yuan / ton, but the upper suppression was too strong, and the upward trend of Shanghai Zinc was weak. In the range of 23500 to 23680 yuan per ton, the long-short fierce game came out of the sawtooth form. with the weakening of the external market, there was also a final conclusion on the directional competition between Shanghai and Zn. short sellers sold off on a large scale, and Shanghai Zinc unilaterally weakened and explored the support strength of 23000 yuan / ton integer level. When the low part of the short stop surplus departure, Shanghai Zinc slightly repaired to 23200 yuan / ton or so. As of Friday, trading volume in the Shanghai Zinc Index had fallen 1.286 million to 1.84 million, while positions rose 15476 to 529000.
This week, the contract between 0 # zinc and Shanghai zinc 1806 in Shanghai market changed from 240 × 260 yuan / ton to 210 × 230 yuan / ton, and 0 # Shuangyan changed from 260 × 280 yuan / ton to 220 × 250 yuan / ton in May. This week Shanghai zinc under the low value of the year, some refineries still cherish the sale; After the festival, because of the disorder of the market quotation in the new month, the market supply became loose, the traders came out more and less, in addition to the expected increase in the inflow of imported zinc, the price of zinc fell sharply on Friday and the quotation did not change. And downstream enterprises bearish after the market water, mining weak, to on-demand procurement, the overall transaction is light, slightly less than last week.
This week, Guangdong 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1806 contract water 150 million 200 yuan / ton, compared with the Shanghai market discount maintained 50 yuan / ton, little change from last week. Zinc center of gravity moves down this cycle, bearish mood still dominates. After the festival, the refinery returned to ship normally, the traders were mainly shipping, few received goods, the morning market inertia high price, but the downstream procurement intention is not good, maintain rigid demand procurement, the market supply and demand relationship is slightly unbalanced, the price failure quotation is constantly adjusted. The overall market transaction is mediocre.
This week, Tianjin market 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1806 contract water 280 ≤ 300 yuan / ton, Tianjin market than Shanghai market from last week water rise of 70 / ton, basically remained flat. Zinc prices continue to be low this week, after the festival slightly arrived in the northern refinery, traders normal trading, downstream on-demand procurement, a little stock after the festival, the overall transaction slightly improved.
Tin: Lunxi, which remained volatile in the range of $21,000 to $21,300 a tonne this week, performed strongly on Thursday, breaking through all EMA resistance in one fell swoop, but came under pressure again in Asia on Friday, closing at $21275 a tonne on Thursday. Down $30 a tonne from Thursday. The total number of transactions in the week was 1036 fewer than last week, and 18016 positions were down 288hands from the previous week. After the dollar rallied this week, it hit a four-month high of 92.834, and the recent continued strength of the dollar has put pressure on basic metals, with Lunxi dominated by shocks.
This week, Shanghai tin was only three trading days, the main 1809 contract showed a concussion after the center of gravity upward trend, Thursday night by external guidance and bulls concentrated increase in positions boosted by 148580 yuan / ton, but on Friday, the trend of the Japanese market fell again. It closed below the 60-day moving average and closed at 147800 yuan a tonne on Friday, up 147800 yuan per tonne from Friday. The total turnover of 35556 hands was 33360 hands lower than that of last week, and the number of positions held was 23854 hands higher than that of last week by 2920 hands.
Spot tin prices this week narrow consolidation, mainly in 145,000 ≤ 147,000 yuan / ton fluctuations, the overall trading is weak. This week because International Labour Day holiday only three trading days, after the festival small brand manufacturers ship positively, but the downstream because the recent overall atmosphere is weak and the adjacent delivery to this month aftermarket market is weak, holds the currency to watch more, the trading atmosphere is weak as a whole. The current price difference has a trend of widening, as of Friday, cloud tin set of goods to 1809 contract discount 1200 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word discount about 2200 yuan / ton, small brand discount water more than 3000 yuan / ton. Yunnan tin factory because of the plight of the purchase of raw materials for ore prices as a whole strong, the market price has a certain supporting role.
Nickel: Lun Ni concussion fell at the beginning of the week, hitting a low of $13555 / ton to step on 60 antennas to be supported, coupled with China's PMI bright market sentiment warm, Lun Ni rose back. Talk of a rapprochement in Sino-US trade talks on Thursday sent Lenny back above $14000, but then LME inventories soared and nickel prices fell back, closing at $13910 a tonne on Friday's K line, up 0.25 per cent from last week. Volume decreased by 11000 hands to 23000 hands, and position by 2782 hands to 250914 hands.
On Monday and Tuesday this week, due to the May Day holiday, the Shanghai Nickel main 1807 contract opened at 103850 yuan / ton on Wednesday, boosted by the data to around 105000 yuan / ton, and then dragged down by an increase in external inventories, as of Friday morning. The weekly K line closed at 103910 yuan / ton, down 0.79% from last week. turnover decreased by 2.086 million hands to 1.443 million hands, while position increased by 8918 hands to 288000 hands.
This week Jinchuan company shipping enthusiasm is OK, Shanghai quotation from last Friday's 105000 yuan / ton down to 104300 yuan / ton, a cumulative reduction of 700 yuan / ton. Jinchuan nickel rose from 800 yuan on Wednesday to 650 yuan / ton today, while Russian nickel rose 450 yuan / ton to 350 yuan / ton on Wednesday compared with Wuxi 1805 contract. In terms of transactions, traders are active after the festival, some traders adjust their prices and ship goods, downstream enterprises purchase more on demand, small steel mills enter the market for a small amount of procurement, and some traders also have replenishment. The activity of the market for the whole week was slightly better than last week.