SMM 23 March:
Domestically, the central bank raised open market interest rates by 5 basis points in response to a US rate rise. China's Ministry of Commerce also plans to impose tariffs on some products imported from the United States, a mountain and rain full of wind and rain. China's stock market fell across the board on Friday, with Shanghai copper falling below 50000 yuan a tonne to a low of 49670 yuan a tonne, the lowest since September last year. Shanghai copper week fell 3.86%, trading positions both increased, short completely dominated the market.
On the spot side, as the disk continues to fall, copper prices break 50,000 yuan, downstream actively enter the market to stock, traders reduce the price of goods to buy cash selling period, but spot supply is still loose, holders are still strong willingness to cash, From 250 ~ 220 yuan / ton of water at the beginning of the week to 220 ~ 130 yuan / ton of water, the market shows the characteristics of weak and strong in the period. Caution spread to the spot market on Friday, and next week coincides with the end of the month, when traders stop and wait and see, with some downstream continuing to enter the market at low prices.
Aluminum: major global events occurred frequently this week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, the Sino-US trade war kicked off, commodity markets generally fell, Lun Aluminum showed a stronger resistance than domestic Shanghai aluminum and other gold metals, and its center of gravity shifted slightly lower in a week. It hit $2062 a tonne, but hit a midweek high of $2105.5 a tonne, and the Shanghai-London ratio returned below 6.7. its position fell to around 659000 hands from 683000 on Friday, and long safe havens left the market.
Shanghai Aluminum concussed between the 5 / 10 moving average before the Trump tariff incident on Thursday night, and with no further increase in inventory data, there was a tendency to step on the bottom, with a mainstream operating range of 13,900 to 14,000 yuan per ton, but was affected by the US tariff incident on Thursday night. Global stock markets plummeted, domestic colored black plummeted, short positions fully controlled the market, and Shanghai Aluminum fell sharply, hitting a low of 13640 yuan per ton early on Friday, continuing to refresh its recent low. The position of Shanghai Aluminum Index increased from 776000 hands at the beginning of the week to 800000 hands, with short positions increasing mainly. Shanghai Aluminum fell 1.6 per cent in the week, closing negative for three weeks in a row and has fallen 5.6 per cent.
On the spot side, the discount in the spot market this week remained between 130 and 90 yuan / tonne, which was affected by the sharp drop in aluminum during the period, and the discount narrowed somewhat, but orders from downstream processing enterprises improved this week, buying stronger at low prices, and traders' previous hedging gains. Shipments are also positive, so the overall volume of transactions in the spot market is better than last week, and activity has increased.
Lead: as a result of the Fed's interest rate hike and major events such as the Sino-US trade war, Lun Pb as a whole showed a wide concussion pattern. at the beginning of this week, on the eve of various events, the market was more pessimistic and short forces were strong, and Lun Pb once plummeted to US $2320 per ton. After the rise in interest rate boots landed, Lun Pb rebounded and hit a high of US $2420 per tonne on Thursday. however, the Sino-US trade war heated up, market risk aversion soared, a large number of funds fled, and Lun Pb fell, ending Friday at US $2352 per ton. It fell $25.50 a tonne, or 1.07% a week. Strong risk aversion in the market, lead plummeted one after another, running below all the moving average, while the lower 2300 integer level remains, is expected to continue next week weak concussion pattern, running at 2300-2400 US dollars / ton.
This week's Shanghai lead 1805 contract followed the pace of Lun lead. at the beginning of the week, as short positions continued to increase, Shanghai lead fell one after another, to as low as 18150 yuan per ton on Wednesday, and then fell to the ground as a result of a rise in interest rates, as well as the fermentation of environmental rectification news at Anhui recycled lead refineries. Bulls poured in, and Shanghai lead rushed to 18920 yuan per ton on Thursday, a new three-week high, but the Sino-US trade war situation was tense, long funds fled, and Shanghai lead threw up most of the increase, ending at 1500 yuan / ton, at 18435 yuan / ton. Weekly decline of 0.62%. During the week, trading volume increased by 110000 hands to 328000 hands, and position volume increased by 8492 hands to 50446 hands. The lead in Shanghai fell back and fell back, losing all the EMA support, but at the bottom of the bottom, it is expected to maintain a weak concussion trend next week, or run at 18200 ≤ 18,750 yuan / ton.
This week spot lead mainstream transactions 18495 ≤ 18920 yuan / ton. During the week, lead prices fluctuate widely, primary lead Henan area in addition to part of the refinery maintenance continued, the impact of production restrictions has been basically alleviated, but because of the lack of inventory, bulk orders to maintain a high price shipment; Due to the continued downturn in the trade market, the mood of the holder to hold up the price has been slightly slowed, and some quotations have fallen, rising 100 yuan to 260 yuan / ton on 1805 contracts as of Friday. Because of the environmental protection and rectification factors in Anhui Province, the supply of refined lead is relatively limited, and the transaction price maintains the quotation near the average price of SMM1# lead. Downstream, the overall demand of the battery market is not prosperous, the production of storage enterprises is cautious, the procurement is generally cautious on demand, and the transaction in the bulk market continues to be in the doldrums. Next week, spot lead may be traded at 18200 ≤ 18,750 yuan / ton. The maintenance influence of the primary lead refinery continues, but at the end of the month it is faced with the resumption of work in some refineries, but because of the lack of inventory, the price of the bulk single quotation of the refinery will be raised next week to maintain the stability of the discount; In the trade market, the supply of goods by holders is limited, but there are some sources of imported lead in the market. it is expected that traders will still have a downward trend next week. The regenerated lead market is due to the technical reform factors of Anhui industrial zone, the supply of refined lead is reduced, the refinery is sold at a low price, and the regenerated refined lead will continue to quote for SMM1# lead flat water next week. Downstream, the lead-acid battery market off-season pattern does not change, coupled with the end of the quarter, storage enterprises only to rigid demand procurement, it is expected that transactions will not improve next week. Recycled lead concentrate will be sold at 18200 ≤ 18,700 yuan / ton next week.
Zinc: this week Lun zinc interval consolidation, guided by macro factors, the direction of choice is not clear, 3200 US dollars / ton support effectiveness has been tested. At the beginning of the week, the US index strengthened and pressured, Lun Zn fell back down to 3215 US dollars per ton, then cancelled warehouse receipts greatly reduced the emergency rescue, Lun Zinc rose back to 3273.5 US dollars per ton, but continued to rise slightly weak. The center of gravity of Lunzin sank to a narrow range of consolidation near US $3250 per tonne, and then handed in again pressure. Lunzin plummeted to test the effectiveness of US $3200 per tonne of support, but the continued release of short mood caused Lunzin to make up for the decline and break down by US $3183 per tonne. Subsequently, the macro positive news spread that the basic metals rose generally, and Lun Zn recorded an intraweek high of 3282 US dollars / tonne in homeopathic line. however, the fundamentals were still not released favourably, and after stripping the macro positive news, Lun Zn has fallen back slightly, and the trade war storm has resumed. Risk aversion rose rapidly, with Lunzin again breaking down and refreshing its low value of $3170 per tonne during the week, while buying Lunzin rose nearly $40 per tonne in a rapid reversal, but the rally failed to maintain the repeated downward dip of $3200 per tonne. As of Friday, the trading volume of Lunzin was reduced by about 3473 hands to about 44758 hands, and the position was reduced by about 6233 hands to about 279000 hands.
This week, Shanghai zinc short dominated by a wide consolidation situation, the top 25000 yuan / ton suppression is more obvious. At the beginning of the week, consumption expectations restrained the strength of short pressure. Shanghai Zinc was still consolidated at 25000 yuan per tonne, and the lower edge was constantly seeking test opportunities. however, when the outer plate was short, short confidence increased greatly, and without hesitation, the army entered the market, and Shanghai Zinc made up for the decline after diving in a straight line. Did not hesitate too much to fall below 24500 yuan / ton support level down 24290 yuan / ton, then accompanied by the release of macro positive, some short confidence is not enough to leave the market, Shanghai zinc rebound backfill all the decline of 25020 yuan / ton, but the macro situation suddenly changed, the trade war escalated. Market sentiment fermentation Shanghai zinc fell back, on Friday Shanghai zinc refresh week low to 24245 yuan / ton, followed by a rapid reversal of 24840 yuan / ton after a wide shock, the direction of operation is not very clear. As of Friday, trading volume in the Shanghai Zinc Index had increased by about 894000 to about 3.964 million, and positions had increased by about 52100 to about 499000.
This week, the contract of 0 # zinc to Shanghai zinc 1804 in Shanghai market narrowed from 90 yuan / ton to 10 yuan / ton to 20 yuan / ton, and 0 # Shuangyan pair narrowed from 50 yuan / ton-40 yuan / ton to flat water-20 yuan / ton in April. This week Shanghai zinc wide concussion, smelters cherish more sales less out, mainly long single trading; traders maintain normal shipments, this week downstream to get goods better, the market trading atmosphere is active, the overall volume of transactions increased slightly compared with last week.
This week, Guangdong 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1805 contract discount 120 to 90 yuan / ton, basically flat from Friday, compared with Shanghai stock market discount expanded from 30 yuan / ton on Friday to about 100 yuan / ton. This week Shanghai zinc low consolidation operation mainly, but the general trend is still weak. Smelter shipments were normal this week, traders traded slightly warmer, downstream consumption gradually recovered, the overall volume of transactions in the purchasing market at low prices was warmer than last week, and the volume of transactions was higher than last week, and the overall transaction in the market was better than last Friday. This week Tianjin market 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1805 contract flat water to rise water 50 yuan / ton, the overall than last Friday is basically flat. With the end of the two sessions and the heating season, the downstream zinc consumption enterprises that shut down and restrict production began to resume production one after another. downstream enterprises entered the market to inquire for goods at low prices, and the market trading volume was warmer than last week, and the overall transaction was better than last Friday.
Tin: this week Lunxi was under pressure shock below the 60-day moving average, with a main operating range of $20,600 to $21,000 a tonne, closing at $20940 a tonne on Thursday, down $60 a tonne from last Thursday. A total of 1748 hands were traded during the week, down 124 hands from the previous week, and 18342 positions were reduced by 558 hands. LME tin stocks were 1940 tonnes on Thursday, up 280tonnes from Thursday. The centre of gravity of basic metals has generally sunk this week, Lunxi has moved relatively smoothly and financial markets have been in turmoil. The dollar has been hit by the Fed's decision this week to raise interest rates three times rather than four this year, and fears of a trade war between China and the US have plummeted industrial prices, and Mr Rumsey has fallen back.
The main Shanghai tin 1805 contract this week was volatile from Monday to Thursday, and was hit hard from Thursday night to Friday. it plummeted to 137150 yuan per ton on Thursday night, its lowest level since mid-December 2017, General weakness in the surrounding markets attracted short money into the market on Friday, while Shanghai tin continued to decline, closing at 141480 yuan a tonne on Friday, down 3240 yuan, or 2.2 per cent, from Friday. A total of 85588 hands were traded during the week, down 1614 hands from last week, and 70 hands from 22652 positions.
Spot prices in Shanghai and tin fell sharply this week, with the biggest drop on Friday, dragged down by plummeting futures prices, with mainstream 142, 000 ≤ 144, 500 yuan a tonne, down 1000 yuan / tonne from Friday. The price is in the downward channel, the smelter generally holds firm price, mainly due to the recent tight supply of tin ore, coupled with the decline in processing fees, the smelter procurement cost pressure is greater, most of the mainstream smelters in Yunnan region in the first half of the week were strong at 145000 yuan / ton; Downstream wait-and-see mood is more serious, the overall transaction atmosphere is general, only low procurement can be. The current cycle is now a further narrowing of the discount compared with last week, the first half of the week Yunxi to 1805 contracts generally rose 300 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word discount 600 ≤ 800 yuan / ton; On Friday, due to a large decline in tin in Shanghai, the discount is close to disappearance. in the afternoon, ordinary cloud words affixed 300 yuan / ton to flat water, and cloud tin rose 500 yuan to 600 yuan / ton.
Nickel: dollar rate-raising boots hit the ground this week, a trade war between China and the United States began, market fears erupted, and the black tie led the metal market down. Domestic stainless steel stocks are condescending, stainless steel prices are under pressure. in the first half of the week, Lenny Nickel operated under pressure, fluctuating in the range of $13,400 to $13,600, followed by Trump's trade war sword pointing to China, all metals drifting green, and signs of recovery in the LME nickel warehouse. Lenny lost its 60-day moving average and fell below the $13000 mark at one point. As of Friday 18-20, the week's K-line closed at $13045 a tonne, down 4.2 per cent from last week. Volume increased by 3207 to 39624, while position decreased by 9962 to 247849.
This week, the main Shanghai nickel 1805 contract opened at 103200 yuan / ton, stainless steel consumption is difficult to improve, bulls gradually leave the market, Shanghai nickel shock weakened, intraday because of the weakening of the dollar attempted to rebound, but difficult to stop the trade war to suppress market sentiment, broken down. As of Friday morning, it closed at 97990 yuan a tonne, down 5.2 per cent from last week, with volume down 35000 to 2.047 million and positions down 35000 to 379000.
This week Jinchuan company shipping enthusiasm is OK, Shanghai quotation from Friday's 102000 yuan / ton down to 98400 yuan / ton, a cumulative reduction of 3600 yuan / ton. Jinchuan nickel than Wuxi main 1803 contract on the water at the beginning of the week water transfer to 250 yuan / ton, Russian nickel than Wuxi 1803 contract is reduced from 400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 250 yuan / ton. In terms of transactions, the market was mostly on the sidelines at the beginning of the week, and the transaction activity was general. subsequently, nickel prices fell deep. downstream alloy and electroplating enterprises entered the market at low prices to procure. some steel mills entered the market to replenish their goods, and traders also replenished their warehouses. The activity of the whole week is better than last week.
Note: this article is only part of the SMM Weekly Bulletin, for more information
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