SMM, 2 March:
Copper: federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell, who attended Congress's semi-annual monetary policy hearing for the first time this week, said the US economy was strong and confident of its set inflation target of 2 per cent, and his hawkish rhetoric opened up imagination for the Fed to raise interest rates four times in 2018. The dollar index rose in response, with the dollar index moving from around 88 to above 90.5 so far during the Chinese New year, reaching a high of nearly 91 points on Thursday night. Linglun copper festival after the return of five consecutive negative, from a high of $7179 / ton, continue to lose, break a few levels, lost and away from the support of the moving average group, give up most of the pre-festival gains, as low as $6858.5 / ton. At present, Lun Copper hovered at US $6930 per ton, down 2.50 percent a week, with transactions up more than 15000 hands and positions reduced by more than 6,000 hands.
On the domestic side, the official manufacturing PMI in February recorded the biggest decline in nearly six years, broken down by the expected month-on-month increase in production and business activities, and the index is expected to pick up in March. In January, China's scrap copper imports decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, refined copper imports increased compared with the same period last year, domestic electrolytic copper supply is adequate, but after the festival, downstream enterprises have not yet fully resumed work, Shanghai copper has not received spot support, the trend is also weakening. Monday recorded a high of 53980 yuan / ton, then opened the downward mode, Thursday night recorded a low of 51900 yuan / ton, once below the 52000 yuan / ton integer level, short immediately reduced positions pulled back to copper prices, is now firmly above 52000 yuan / ton. The Shanghai copper index fell 2.26 per cent this week, with positions up more than 50, 000 hands to a high of 860000, with deals up 1.23 million.
On the spot side, the discount gradually expanded during the week. On Monday, shareholders had the idea of a high price, but a large number of low-end imported copper emerged in the market, and the downstream actively entered the market to replenish the goods. Then, although the enthusiasm of market trade speculation is recovering and warming, but coinciding with the cross-month, some cargo holders are under pressure of funds, the willingness to exchange cash is urgent, the selling goods are concentrated, and the spot quotation is slightly expanded from 190 yuan / ton to 210 yuan / ton. After the cross-month, the Shanghai-London ratio continued to be revised, the import profit window opened, and imported copper was actively exchanged for cash, but after the week, the disk fell sharply, and the downstream stopped to wait and see. after some replenishment at the beginning of the week, they performed cautiously and waited for lower prices. Traders take advantage of the opportunity to reduce the price of goods, receiving goods are at low prices.
Aluminum: the US dollar rose and broke through during the week, hitting a high of 90.930, the highest in nearly a month and a half, and the base metal is under pressure. in addition, China's aluminum exports have recently maintained a relatively high level, filling some of the overseas supply and demand gap to a certain extent. As a result, Lun Aluminum's overall performance was weaker than that of Shanghai Aluminum, maintaining interval consolidation, with transactions concentrated at 2130 ≤ US $2,155 per tonne, the Shanghai-Aluminum ratio repaired to about 6.74, and its position reduced from 686000 hands at the beginning of the week to 677000 hands. The dollar is still not out of the rebound channel, and Lunalco is expected to remain weaker than Shanghai Aluminum next week, with an operating range of $2125 to $2,175 a tonne.
Aluminum was the strongest performer among non-ferrous metals this week, while other metals recorded varying degrees of decline, while the center of gravity of Shanghai Aluminum moved slowly upward and the overall trend was stronger than that of Lun Aluminum. Shanghai Aluminum's main contract week gradually recovered the 5-10-20 daily average, hit a high of 14480 yuan / ton, the Shanghai Aluminum Index position increased from 778000 hands at the beginning of the week to 794000 hands, in the peak season to remove inventory expectations, long tentative entry increased significantly. Next week, that is, after the Lantern Festival, the downstream is basically fully operational, but preparations such as drying stoves before resuming production are expected to be about a week. therefore, it is expected that the real full pace of procurement and production will be around March 9. At present, the market's expectations for consumption in the spring peak season are more optimistic, so the price performance is strong, but at the same time, there is room for further downward movement in costs, bears have not yet stopped, and the volatility of aluminum prices has also increased under the capital game. Next week, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum will be changed to Shanghai Aluminum 1805 contract. it is expected that the center of gravity of the main 1805 contract next week may continue to seek to move upward, standing on the 20-day moving average, entering a new operating range, and will mainly fluctuate at 14,300 ≤ 14,650 yuan / ton. In front of 40 and 60 days average adhesion to form the upper pressure level, 14800 yuan line or obvious resistance, the current technical indicators to more, aluminum prices continue to rebound more probability.
On the spot side, the transaction market situation in the spot market this week has improved first and then suppressed. because most of the traders before the festival will execute long orders in advance to avoid unpredictable risks during the Spring Festival, coupled with the shortage of invoices at the end of the month, the supply of goods available in the post-festival market is limited. Trade speculation was active. after the cross-month period, many new long orders began to be implemented. the supply of goods in the market changed from tight to loose, during which large households continued to receive goods. the spot discount narrowed all the way from 210 yuan / ton to about 120 yuan / ton, and finally expanded to 150 yuan / ton on the last trading day. In the gradual return of the downstream, due to the increasing upward price of aluminum, the downstream wait-and-see cautiously, participation is limited. Deals are concentrated among traders throughout the week. The market is expected to be abundant next week, while downstream Buy Xing will be stronger than this week, inquiry activity will be significantly increased, spot discount is expected to be between 170 and 120 yuan / ton.
Lead: this week, the overall trend of lead is high and low. Lun lead basically maintained a consolidation pattern near the Brin middle rail at the beginning of the week, but until Wednesday, Lun lead stocks rose by nearly 13000 tons, coupled with a strong dollar shock, Lun lead fell one after another, reaching as low as $2443.5 a ton during the week. It was down $76 a tonne, or 2.99 per cent, at $2464 a tonne on Friday. Lun lead runs to the Brin channel near the lower rail, losing all daily moving average support, below or at the 40-day weekly moving average to obtain a certain support, at the same time, after the end of the monthly impact, lead stocks continue to decline next week Lun lead or with shock finishing trend. It runs at 2425 ≤ 2525 US dollars per ton.
The lead 1804 contract in Shanghai this week as a whole showed a pattern of first advance and then suppression. at the beginning of the week, due to the expectation of the post-festival market replenishment, bulls concentrated in the market, and Shanghai lead rushed to an intraweek high of 19575 yuan / tonne, and until Wednesday, the market replenishment expectations fell short. In addition, China's official PMI was not as expected, short came into the market, Shanghai lead fell sharply, the low in the week to 18775 yuan / ton, as of 1500, at 18895 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 2.48 per cent. During the week, trading volume increased by 162000 hands to more than 206,000 hands, and position increased by 4954 hands to 39732 hands. The lead in Shanghai period runs below the average of each road, and the upper 5, 10 and 60 day averages stick around 19200 yuan to form a pressure level, while the lower 40-day weekly moving average may still have a certain support. the lead in Shanghai period maintains a weak concussion trend, running at 18650 ≤ 19,200 yuan / ton.
This week spot lead mainstream transactions 18890 ≤ 19565 yuan / ton. During the week, the lead price rises first and then suppresses, the refinery has a surplus in inventory after the festival, the enthusiasm of bulk single shipment is good, but the price is maintained, the cargo holder is relatively firm because of the limited supply of goods in the market; After the festival of the regenerated lead market, the refinery is still gradually recovering, the market supply is still small, the transaction price of refined lead is about 100 yuan / ton for the average price of SMM1# lead, the enthusiasm for resuming work after the downstream storage is not high, the rigid demand for lead ingots is limited, and the overall market transaction is not good. Next week, spot lead may be sold at 18650 ≤ 19,200 yuan / ton. The primary lead refinery basically resumed work after the festival, but some refineries are scheduled to be overhauled, and it is expected that the price of bulk orders will not change next week. The trade market resumes with the refinery supply, the market supply may have the increment, and the downstream replenishment forecast remains, next week the quotation rises the water temporarily to stabilize; The production of refineries in the regenerated lead market will also be basically restored, but due to the weakening of lead prices, coupled with environmental protection in the north, the enthusiasm of small enterprises to produce is not high, and the price difference or stability of regenerated refined lead is expected to be maintained next week. In addition, the overall demand of the downstream battery market is not prosperous, the enthusiasm of storage enterprises is limited, and next week for the Lantern Festival enterprises to resume work, it is expected that there will be a certain rigid demand to fill the reservoir, next week the market may be relatively better. Recycled lead concentrate will be sold at 18550 ≤ 19,100 yuan / ton next week.
Zinc: this week macro partial pressure, Lun zinc pierced below the 60-day line support after a little repair. At the beginning of the week, when the metal around the soft finger strengthened, Lun Zn waited for the opportunity to measure the 5-day line and the 10-day line to form a gold crossover, recording that the long shadow line briefly pierced and touched a high of $3550 per ton, and then the kinetic energy fell back to $3530 per ton. In the middle of this week, Powell's congressional testimony led the US index to strengthen, the basic metal fell, Lun Zn was not spared, the concussion fell below the US $3500 mark, the center of gravity sank to around US $3460 / ton for a short period of time, and the US dollar rose sharply on Thursday. Thursday Lun zinc diving once fell below the 60-day line of the final technical support, but the dominant fundamental support is still strong, Lun zinc repair and return to $3400 / ton above. As of Friday, trading volume increased by 7994 hands to about 46198 hands, and positions increased by 546 hands to about 305000 hands.
This week, the center of gravity of Shanghai zinc gradually moved down, the technical support is more limited. At the beginning of the week, the operation of Shanghai Zinc was still strong, and as soon as it opened, it rose in a straight line, raising its center of gravity to around 26650 yuan / ton, and successfully stood on all the averages. however, consumption in the three places in the middle of the week was weak, the superimposed outer plate weakened, the pulling power for Shanghai zinc was limited, and financial confidence was tested. Shanghai Zinc opened low and went low, losing the 5th line, the 10th line, the 20th line, and the support one after another. the center of gravity sank to 26350 yuan / ton for consolidation, and the long and short sides sawed into a deaddead. on Thursday night, Shanghai zinc digestive Lun zinc jumped into a water conservancy sky, jumping down to 26050 yuan / ton. Low stimulation long buying, Shanghai zinc repair part of the decline. As of Friday, trading volume in the Shanghai Zinc Index had increased by 1.351 million hands to about 2.259 million hands, and positions had increased by 3250 hands to about 431000 hands.
This week, the contract between 0 # zinc and Shanghai zinc 1804 in Shanghai market expanded from 100 yuan / ton to 150 yuan / ton, and 0 # Shuangyan pair expanded from 80 yuan / ton to 120 yuan / ton in April. This week the market supply is loose, smelters most actively ship; Traders mainly ship goods, rarely have high prices, the market quotation adjustment is relatively fast, the lowest in the afternoon expanded to 160 yuan / ton, but the downstream enterprises resumed work less, the actual consumption is not good, the market transaction has not improved significantly, and the main traders have contributed to the transaction. On Friday, some traders began to receive goods, the market supply tightened, the discount narrowed slightly, and the downstream gradually entered the market to inquire for water, but there were few purchases.
This week Guangdong 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc main 1804 contract discount 160 ≤ 150 yuan / ton, compared with before the festival has expanded, more than Shanghai market discount 20 yuan / ton. This week, the zinc center of gravity in Shanghai gradually sank, smelters maintained a normal pace of shipment, traders resumed work after the festival, and the trade market gradually became active. However, part of the downstream is still in a holiday state, less inquiry into the market, the volume of transactions is limited, although the overall transaction in the market is slightly better than before the festival, but trading remains flat.
This week Tianjin market 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc main 1804 contract discount 50 yuan / ton to Pingshui near, more than Shanghai market water rise 1804 yuan / ton or so, after the festival return, refinery shipment normal, traders one after another reverse work, cargo holders to ship mainly. Tianjin issued a weather pollution warning within the week, but the impact is limited. due to the sinking of the center of gravity of zinc prices during the week, some enterprises began to inquire into the market, pick up the mood, the overall transaction has improved compared with the last week before the festival.
Tin: this week Lunxi concussion consolidation in the 5-20 three EMA adhesion, the main operating range 21500 ≤ 21,750 US dollars / ton, Thursday closed at 21635 US dollars / ton, up 150 US dollars / ton from last Thursday. A total of 1243 hands were traded during the week, an increase of 173 hands over the previous week, and 19173 positions increased by 553 hands. LME tin stocks were 1720 tonnes on Thursday, down 140tonnes from Thursday. This week, the dollar index fell back, hitting 90.93 as high as 90.93, the new chairman of the Federal Reserve Powell's first show "Hawk", the dollar rose sharply; But Powell said the US economy was not overheating and the dollar fell from a six-week high after Mr Trump said he would impose tariffs on imported steel. The lower-than-expected PMI data for China's manufacturing sector also weighed on the trend in basic metals.
The main Shanghai tin 1805 contract rose first and then suppressed this week, with the overall trend dominated by volatility, hitting a high of 148830 yuan / ton on Wednesday, hitting a low of 146520 yuan / ton on Thursday night and closing at 147330 yuan / ton on Thursday, up 150 yuan / ton from last Thursday. During the week, transactions totaled 62182 hands, up 41516 hands from last week, and positions increased by 66 hands in 22238 hands. After the festival funds gradually returned to the market, trading volume increased more month-on-month; but affected by external pressure, high domestic spot inventory and weak economic data, Shanghai tin trend is weak, the trend is volatile.
This week is the first trading week after the Spring Festival Holiday. during the Spring Festival, both supply and demand gradually returned to the market. during the Spring Festival, tin factories in Yunnan maintained production, while the vast majority of tin factories in Jiangxi stopped production and had a holiday, after a holiday accumulation. Circulation spot inventory is high, this week Shanghai tin spot market presents the pattern of oversupply. Market delivery of low-cost goods increased significantly last week, while downstream enterprises have been prepared before the festival and Shanghai tin trend is weak, procurement interest is low, the whole week transactions are lighter. The current discount has been expanded from last week, Yunxi to 1805 contract discount 500 × 800 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word discount 1000 × 1500 yuan / ton, small card fell to around 145000 yuan / ton.
Nickel: the dollar has continued to strengthen above the 90 mark over the past week, boosted by the Fed's Powell hawk speech and good US data, with the offshore renminbi falling back to around 6.35. EIA inventory growth exceeded expectations, oil prices fell in the short term. Basic metals were under full pressure this week. after rising slightly to US $14065 per ton at the beginning of the week, the high pressure shock fell, as domestic stainless steel consumption has not recovered for the time being and social inventories have risen sharply compared with the previous month, and Lenni fell sharply after the week, ending at 13: 45 on Friday. Zhou K line retracts the negative line.
This week, the main Shanghai nickel 1805 contract opened at 105200 yuan / tonne. at the beginning of the week, it rose slightly because of a small rise in nickel prices, followed by a long profit liquidation. the center of gravity of Shanghai nickel gradually moved down. after the week, Shanghai nickel revisited 40 antennas, as low as 101680 yuan per ton. As of Friday 13: 45, the weekly K line also closed the negative line.
This week Jinchuan company shipping enthusiasm is OK, Shanghai quotation from Friday's 103900 yuan / ton down to 101600 yuan / ton, a cumulative reduction of 2300 yuan / ton. Jinchuan nickel than Wuxi main 1803 contract has been adjusted to rise water 1803 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to about 50 yuan / ton, Russian nickel than Wuxi 1803 contract is adjusted from 300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to about 200 yuan / ton at the end of the week. In terms of transaction, before the Lantern Festival, the market transaction atmosphere is not good, nickel prices slightly upward at the beginning of the week, downstream production enterprises on demand to replenish goods, to the week after the nickel price has improved, the whole week of market transaction activity is general.
Note: this article is only part of the SMM Weekly Bulletin, for more information
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