SMM, Feb. 24: Lunni performed prominently during the Spring Festival. last week (2.12 ≤ 2.16) not only ended four consecutive negative starts to rise, but also refreshed its high to US $14420 / tonne again. after that, the US dollar stabilized and rose, and some funds closed their positions at a profit. Lenny gave up some of its gains.
Nickel link: responsible person in charge of purchasing a large nickel pig iron and nickel mine: the weather in Indonesia improved in February, the speed of nickel ore repatriation accelerated, and the average number of nickel mines shipped per month was about 40 ships (previously less than 30 ships, 5-55000 wet tons per ship), The export volume of nickel ore in the Philippines will gradually recover, so it is considered that the price of nickel ore will weaken after the festival.
A medium and large nickel mine trader: Indonesia nickel ore shipment speed up, but after the festival of domestic factory procurement also increased, before the end of March will show a situation of supply in short supply, so nickel mine prices can show a small rise in the market, after March, Philippine nickel ore increment coupled with a large number of Indonesian nickel ore exports, nickel ore prices will gradually decline, nickel prices in the second quarter will be under pressure.
A number of small and medium-sized nickel pig iron plants believe that there will be a short period of centralized procurement of nickel ore after the festival, which will lead to a small upward price, after the end of the procurement tide, nickel ore prices will return to weakness.
Nickel pig iron:
Nickel pig iron sales person in charge of large nickel pig iron plant: the domestic nickel pig iron market supply and demand is more balanced, that the first quarter nickel pig iron price shock is mainly, if there is no nickel price rise driven, nickel pig iron its own fundamentals is difficult to support its price rise.
A medium nickel pig iron trader: it is believed that stainless steel consumption will pick up after the festival, and the supply will be tight when the output of the nickel pig iron factory is affected by overhaul, which in turn will drive the price of nickel pig iron to be on the high side.
A large electrolytic nickel marketing company: it is believed that the global pure nickel is in a continuous inventory state, and after tariff adjustment, the domestic pure nickel supply will gradually become tight, the current nickel industry chain structure is conducive to nickel price rise.
A large stainless steel factory: bullish on nickel prices in March but not optimistic about stainless steel prices, believing that stainless steel prices are still fluctuating at current levels after the Spring Festival and are less likely to continue to fall, but confidence in the rise is also insufficient. The main concern is that stainless steel shipped to China from Castle Peak in Indonesia will continue to hit the domestic market. In addition, the company plans to maximize the adequacy of foreign orders in order to minimize the pressure on domestic orders to fall short of expectations.
A medium-sized stainless steel factory: it is considered that the price of stainless steel in March may be lower than expected before the year, so it is necessary to pay attention to the accumulation of social inventory of stainless steel after the festival.
SMM believes nickel prices will remain strong in the first quarter:
1. despite the continued increase in nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, But it is difficult to produce nickel pig iron effectively before April: nickel pig iron plants have to be overhauled when their furnace age expires (including several factories in Shandong, Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia that continue to operate at more than 80 per cent). Therefore, the recovery of nickel pig iron production is slow.
2. the output of large electrolytic nickel producers in China is difficult to recover in the first quarter after the fire.
3. stainless steel prices or shocks rise after the Spring Festival, mainly supported by seasonal warming of stainless steel consumption after the festival, as well as low stainless steel production and social inventory.
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For an exchange of views, welcome to contact the SMM Nickel Research team:
Shanghai Colored net big data-Nickel Yang Bo
Tel: + 86 / 21 / 5166 6847
Shanghai Colored net big data-Nickel Wang Cong
Tel: + 86 / 21 / 5166 6828
Shanghai Colored net big data-Nickel Zhao Manxiang
Tel: + 86 / 21 / 5166 6802
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