[SMM inventory] Metal performance during the Spring Festival and the first Day after the Spring Festival in the past 10 years-Shanghai Metals Market

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[SMM inventory] Metal performance during the Spring Festival and the first Day after the Spring Festival in the past 10 years

Translation 04:33:01PM Feb 13, 2018 Source:Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network

Aluminum

Zinc

During the Spring Festival, most of the years of Lunzin rose, while the first day after the Shanghai Zinc Festival continued to decline for nearly four years.

SMM analysis: as far as zinc is concerned, the market is relatively flat on the eve of the Spring Festival at the end of the year. Refineries maintain normal production; traders and downstream have entered the holiday, the market is temporarily less trading, is expected to change little, the three places social inventory or continuous accumulation before the festival, the increase after the festival is obvious. During the Spring Festival holiday, the outer plate continued to run, the current LME zinc inventory low in a short period of time or difficult to fill, supply shortage is expected to continue to support zinc prices, although Lun zinc has entered the callback cycle, but still optimistic for a long time, the internal and external plates support each other. It is expected that Shanghai Zinc will continue to keep up with the trend of the external market. It is expected that Lunzin will not be able to get out of the unilateral market alone without internal market support. it is expected that this week's high consolidation will test the effectiveness of the 40-day moving average support; Shanghai Zinc's main 1803 contract will begin to close on Thursday and is expected to be dominated by horizontal consolidation before the Spring Festival holiday.

Nickel

During the Spring Festival, nickel showed a sharp rise and fall, while the current statistics after the festival show mixed ups and downs.

SMM analysis: during the Spring Festival, the market is more worried about the future market of US stocks, and the bearish mood is strong. at present, the relatively high nickel price is under pressure to adjust downward. during the Spring Festival, it may test 12,300 US dollars to 12,500 US dollars per ton. But nickel prices may continue to accumulate upward kinetic energy after the festival, a small amount of upward revision. After the festival, Jinchuan is expected to rise about 100 yuan per ton compared with the main 1803 contract without tin plate, and about 200 yuan per ton with a discount of 200 yuan per ton compared with the 1803 contract without tin plate.

Soochow futures Chen Long: it is suggested that short positions for the festival. Nickel prices fell sharply last week, with risk aversion dominating the trend, while fundamentals remained weak. Indonesia has once again approved new export quotas for nickel mines. nickel mine supply is expected to be loose and prices suppressed obviously. the profits of the nickel-stainless steel industry chain are concentrated in the nickel pig iron link, while the demand and market share of refined nickel are still squeezed. Domestic stocks are accumulating. Stainless steel profitability has been repaired and is still at a low level. LME destocking accelerated and supported nickel price. at present, the proportion and quantity of nickel sulfate in nickel primary consumption is too low, and the actual consumption is not enough to support the sharp decline of LME inventory. We believe that global risk aversion has not yet subsided, and that nickel has always been more affected by speculative funds and potentially more volatile in the short term, suggesting short positions for the holidays.

Lead

During the Spring Festival, Lun lead rose most of the years, but after the festival Shanghai lead performance Shanghai lead rise and fall mixed.

For the supply and demand side of the post-festival market:

The favorable factors are as follows: 1. the supply of lead concentrate in China continues to be tight, and it is difficult to alleviate in a short period of time; 2. the inventory of primary lead refineries is on the low side, and the inventory of social warehouses is also low; 3. the waste battery supply in the regenerated lead market is limited, and the smelting cost is high; 4, downstream battery enterprises resume work one after another, and there is a rigid demand for lead ingots to replenish the warehouse expectation; 5, the inventory of battery dealers is lower than the same period last year, at the same time, the Spring Festival consumption is OK.

Negative factors: 1. during the Spring Festival, the primary lead refinery rotation production, lead ingot inventory will gradually rise; 2, the heating season will end on March 15, smelter production restrictions or relatively relaxed; 3. the enthusiasm of lead battery dealers to replenish the storehouse before the festival is not high, and the finished product inventory of storage enterprises is on the high side; in April and March-April, the lead battery market gradually enters the traditional off-season, and the enthusiasm or decline of storage enterprises to start work.

To sum up, SMM believes that lead prices as a whole after the year showed a trend of first rise and then suppress. At the beginning of the year, due to the rigid demand in the downstream market of lead, it has a certain boost to the lead price in the short term, and with the arrival of the traditional off-season of the lead battery market and the easing of the production limitation of refineries, it may form a certain resistance to the lead price in the future.

Macro surface

During the Spring Festival holiday this week, domestic trading began to close on Wednesday night, and the Chinese data were quieter. Foreign side, this week's data, mainly concentrated in Europe and the United States, mainly in the euro area after the fourth quarter of the revised GDP annual rate, December after the quarterly adjustment of the trade account, the euro area data are still dominated by preferences; The US annual rates of CPI and PPI for January and the monthly rate of industrial output for January will be released next week. the data are expected to be fine, with the US index or probe slightly stabilising and recovering.

Notice: on March 22, 2018, the "2018 (13th) Shanghai Copper and Aluminum Summit" jointly organized by Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and Shanghai Colored Network (SMM) has a strong guest lineup. the registration channel has been opened. "Click to enter the registration."

Key Words:  Copper  aluminum  zinc  lead 

[SMM inventory] Metal performance during the Spring Festival and the first Day after the Spring Festival in the past 10 years

Translation 04:33:01PM Feb 13, 2018 Source:Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network

Aluminum

Zinc

During the Spring Festival, most of the years of Lunzin rose, while the first day after the Shanghai Zinc Festival continued to decline for nearly four years.

SMM analysis: as far as zinc is concerned, the market is relatively flat on the eve of the Spring Festival at the end of the year. Refineries maintain normal production; traders and downstream have entered the holiday, the market is temporarily less trading, is expected to change little, the three places social inventory or continuous accumulation before the festival, the increase after the festival is obvious. During the Spring Festival holiday, the outer plate continued to run, the current LME zinc inventory low in a short period of time or difficult to fill, supply shortage is expected to continue to support zinc prices, although Lun zinc has entered the callback cycle, but still optimistic for a long time, the internal and external plates support each other. It is expected that Shanghai Zinc will continue to keep up with the trend of the external market. It is expected that Lunzin will not be able to get out of the unilateral market alone without internal market support. it is expected that this week's high consolidation will test the effectiveness of the 40-day moving average support; Shanghai Zinc's main 1803 contract will begin to close on Thursday and is expected to be dominated by horizontal consolidation before the Spring Festival holiday.

Nickel

During the Spring Festival, nickel showed a sharp rise and fall, while the current statistics after the festival show mixed ups and downs.

SMM analysis: during the Spring Festival, the market is more worried about the future market of US stocks, and the bearish mood is strong. at present, the relatively high nickel price is under pressure to adjust downward. during the Spring Festival, it may test 12,300 US dollars to 12,500 US dollars per ton. But nickel prices may continue to accumulate upward kinetic energy after the festival, a small amount of upward revision. After the festival, Jinchuan is expected to rise about 100 yuan per ton compared with the main 1803 contract without tin plate, and about 200 yuan per ton with a discount of 200 yuan per ton compared with the 1803 contract without tin plate.

Soochow futures Chen Long: it is suggested that short positions for the festival. Nickel prices fell sharply last week, with risk aversion dominating the trend, while fundamentals remained weak. Indonesia has once again approved new export quotas for nickel mines. nickel mine supply is expected to be loose and prices suppressed obviously. the profits of the nickel-stainless steel industry chain are concentrated in the nickel pig iron link, while the demand and market share of refined nickel are still squeezed. Domestic stocks are accumulating. Stainless steel profitability has been repaired and is still at a low level. LME destocking accelerated and supported nickel price. at present, the proportion and quantity of nickel sulfate in nickel primary consumption is too low, and the actual consumption is not enough to support the sharp decline of LME inventory. We believe that global risk aversion has not yet subsided, and that nickel has always been more affected by speculative funds and potentially more volatile in the short term, suggesting short positions for the holidays.

Lead

During the Spring Festival, Lun lead rose most of the years, but after the festival Shanghai lead performance Shanghai lead rise and fall mixed.

For the supply and demand side of the post-festival market:

The favorable factors are as follows: 1. the supply of lead concentrate in China continues to be tight, and it is difficult to alleviate in a short period of time; 2. the inventory of primary lead refineries is on the low side, and the inventory of social warehouses is also low; 3. the waste battery supply in the regenerated lead market is limited, and the smelting cost is high; 4, downstream battery enterprises resume work one after another, and there is a rigid demand for lead ingots to replenish the warehouse expectation; 5, the inventory of battery dealers is lower than the same period last year, at the same time, the Spring Festival consumption is OK.

Negative factors: 1. during the Spring Festival, the primary lead refinery rotation production, lead ingot inventory will gradually rise; 2, the heating season will end on March 15, smelter production restrictions or relatively relaxed; 3. the enthusiasm of lead battery dealers to replenish the storehouse before the festival is not high, and the finished product inventory of storage enterprises is on the high side; in April and March-April, the lead battery market gradually enters the traditional off-season, and the enthusiasm or decline of storage enterprises to start work.

To sum up, SMM believes that lead prices as a whole after the year showed a trend of first rise and then suppress. At the beginning of the year, due to the rigid demand in the downstream market of lead, it has a certain boost to the lead price in the short term, and with the arrival of the traditional off-season of the lead battery market and the easing of the production limitation of refineries, it may form a certain resistance to the lead price in the future.

Macro surface

During the Spring Festival holiday this week, domestic trading began to close on Wednesday night, and the Chinese data were quieter. Foreign side, this week's data, mainly concentrated in Europe and the United States, mainly in the euro area after the fourth quarter of the revised GDP annual rate, December after the quarterly adjustment of the trade account, the euro area data are still dominated by preferences; The US annual rates of CPI and PPI for January and the monthly rate of industrial output for January will be released next week. the data are expected to be fine, with the US index or probe slightly stabilising and recovering.

Notice: on March 22, 2018, the "2018 (13th) Shanghai Copper and Aluminum Summit" jointly organized by Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Industry Association and Shanghai Colored Network (SMM) has a strong guest lineup. the registration channel has been opened. "Click to enter the registration."

Key Words:  Copper  aluminum  zinc  lead