[SMM Analysis] most non-ferrous metals fall Shanghai Aluminum up nearly 1 per cent

SMM2 12: non-ferrous metal performance is not good, only Shanghai aluminum performance anti-fall. Shanghai Aluminum rose during the day, afternoon gains callback, up nearly 1%; Shanghai Tin continued to concussion closed down 1.49%, Shanghai Zinc fell more than 1%, Shanghai nickel, Shanghai lead, Shanghai copper fell slightly. Black system concussion differentiation, coking coal, thread rose slightly; iron ore concussion weak down nearly 1%, coke down 0.73%, hot roll fell slightly.

Today's capital flow

In terms of capital flow, only Shanghai nickel and Shanghai copper have funds to increase, of which Shanghai nickel absorbs 160 million of gold. Black was severely reduced, iron ore, coke outflow of 980 million yuan, 810 million yuan in the forefront of commodities.

The intraday amplitude of US stocks exceeded 1,000 points on Friday, closing down 5 per cent for the week. Us crude oil fell below $60 for the first time in six weeks, its biggest weekly decline in the last two years, putting pressure on commodities. Inflation data from major countries are on the table this week, as will a number of ECB officials. The Chinese market entered the Spring Festival holiday on Thursday.

A brief comment by SMM analysts on Feb. 12

Copper: today, the Shanghai Copper main 1804 contract opened at 51200 yuan / tonne. after opening, the center of gravity moved slowly upward driven by short positions, and rushed up to 51,900 / ton at the end of the session, a line away from the integer level of 52000 yuan / tonne. however, bulls began to reduce their positions. Copper prices fell slightly to close at 51710 yuan per ton, down 90 yuan per tonne, with positions up 1642 hands to 236000 hands and trading volume up 9842 hands to 269000 hands. Positions in the Shanghai copper index fell 1942 to 793000. The dollar index fell slightly today, and Shanghai copper's low rebounded steadily, still running below the moving averages, as the market waited for details of Trump's infrastructure plans to be disclosed. (Xie Yu, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network)

Aluminum: the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum opened at 14185 yuan / ton in the morning. after the opening of the market, the price of aluminum rose sharply under the level of more than one entry, once touching a high of 14565 yuan / ton, but the 10-day moving average and 14500 yuan / ton integer barrier resistance was stronger, and the high short and multi-closed positions were closed. Some of the gains in aluminum prices closed above 14405 yuan per tonne above the 10-day moving average. the Shanghai Aluminum Index reduced its positions by 30878 hands to 785850 hands, with long positions mainly closed, as already mentioned in last week's review. On the one hand, the current low aluminum price has slowed the release of new production capacity, on the other hand, it has dampened the enthusiasm of electrolytic aluminum enterprises that shut down during the heating season, so the release of the supply side has slowed down. at the same time, from the current situation of SMM research, After the Spring Festival, the orders of downstream enterprises have performed better, and the intensity of inventory removal has even exceeded expectations. therefore, it is difficult to say that aluminum prices will continue to leak sharply. at present, the prices have fully fed back their previous views. in the short term, aluminum prices are expected to continue to try to rise. However, given the downward shift in post-saving costs and the performance of aluminum ingots in stock, it is expected that the fluency will be hampered. (Wang Rui, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network)

Lead: within days, the main lead contract in Shanghai was opened at 19165 yuan per tonne, and after the opening of the market, the opening of the lead plate was reduced, and the lead plate in Shanghai was initially 19185 yuan / tonne higher. after the long-short game intensified, and the impulse energy on the multiple heads was insufficient. Lead in Shanghai made several attempts to stand on the 60-day moving average and broke through the 5-day moving average. it fluctuated at 19050 and 19,145 yuan per tonne, until near the end of the day, short positions concentrated in. lead in Shanghai reached 19010 yuan per ton, and finally closed at 19030 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan per ton. Down 0.26%. Volume decreased by 1318 hands to 41788 hands, and position by 1382 hands to 27582 hands. Shanghai lead to the end of nine, continued in the 60-day moving average near the concussion, and the upper 19200 yuan integer resistance is obvious, at night or continue the weak concussion trend. (Xia Wenming, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network)

Zinc: within the day, the main 1804 contract for Shanghai Zinc opened at 26115 yuan / tonne, and the long and short sides were neck and neck, with an amplitude of US $40 per ton around 26100 yuan / tonne. with the continuous increase in positions and pressure from the short side, the center of gravity of Shanghai Zinc sank to around 26070 yuan / ton. The long-short game reached an impasse again. towards the end of the day, the outer market suddenly dived, and the mood of stopping losses in many ways warmed up. the Shanghai zinc plummeted one after another below the daily average and the double support of 26000 yuan / ton, closing at 25940 yuan / ton, down 180 yuan / ton. Trading volume increased by 75776 hands to 321000 hands, while position volume decreased by 6172 hands to 184000 hands. Due to the effect of the Spring Festival holiday, the funds are light for the Spring Festival, the funds in the day are mainly net outflow, and the technical form of Shanghai zinc has formed 5 consecutive negative, the operation is weak and prominent, it is expected that Shanghai zinc may continue to be weak concussion operation in the evening. (Li Ling, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network)

Tin: last night, the Shanghai Tin 1805 contract maintained a low consolidation around 146600 yuan / tonne. today, it opened at 147090 yuan / tonne. the trend continued to fluctuate weakly during the day, hitting a minimum of 146030 yuan / ton below, and finally closing at 146340 yuan / ton. It was down $2220, or 1.49 per cent, from the previous day's settlement price. The transaction was 17456 hands minus 6800 hands, and the position was reduced by 22872 hands by 1294 hands. Today, most of the domestic non-ferrous metals closed down, Shanghai tin trend is weak, there is a short-term risk of further decline, in view of the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the demand for funds and caution are in the majority, the pre-festival trend is expected to be more weak shock.

Nickel: today, Shanghai Nickel 1805 opened at 99140 yuan / tonne, the US dollar concussion weakened, opened Shanghai Nickel straight up, and then the center of gravity concussion around 99820 yuan / ton, near noon fell back to around 99500 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel strong shock, the end of the day touched 100290 yuan / ton, closing at 99820 yuan / ton. All day, Shanghai nickel main contract 1805 closed in the lower shadow of the longer Xiaoyang line, compared with the previous trading day settlement price fell 300 yuan / ton, down 0.3%. Volume decreased by 625000 to 591000, while position increased by 11000 to 454000. The daily line technical index KDJ opening diverges downward, the MACD green column becomes longer, the day flows into the fund 126 million yuan, the night pays attention to whether to stand firm 40 antennas, the evening macroscopic data is light. (Zhao Manxiang, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network)