SMM, 9 Feb:
Copper: global stock markets have been plunging since Friday, pushing the dollar to buy and the dollar index back above the 90. Net long positions held by LME copper speculators fell for five weeks in a row, CFTC bullish sentiment hit a nearly seven-week low, panic swept through financial markets, superimposed on China's upcoming Spring Festival, facing at least a week of stagnant consumption. Commodities were dragged down, with copper tumbling 2.92 per cent on Wednesday, breaking the 40-day and 60-day averages and falling below the integer levels of $7000 and $6900 a tonne in a row. LME copper stocks surged by more than 20, 000 tonnes on Thursday, and the weak Lun copper was hit again, with its center of gravity falling by another $6830 a tonne. Copper tumbled 3.65 per cent this week, with both trading positions up.
On the domestic side, China's trade activities rebounded in January, import and export data are significantly higher than expected growth, but unwrought copper imports decreased for two consecutive months, indicating the end of the consumption off-season and smelter operation rate is high, adequate supply. This week, Shanghai Copper walked out of five consecutive negative periods and retreated, following Lun Copper's 1.5 percent drop on Thursday. the pressure at the high 54000 yuan integer level of Shanghai Copper was highlighted, with a low of 51440 yuan per tonne. after breaking the 60-day moving average, it has gradually moved farther and farther away from each EMA group. Weekly decline of 3.84%, trading positions increased, the Shanghai Copper Index held back to a high of 800000 hands, the market encountered full control of short positions before the Spring Festival.
Spot, this week into the pre-Spring Festival delivery cycle, Monday's transaction performance is still positive, there is still a certain amount of buying downstream, traders also have short-term speculative brick demand. With the price difference widening from 260 yuan / ton to 300 yuan / ton every other month during the week, and the spot quotation rising from 60 / ton ~ flat water to 30 ~ 40 / ton, traders have little profit space after the water rise transaction, and the speculative buying interest has been reduced. However, the downstream purchase volume decreases day by day within the week, and the market is beginning to show that the supply exceeds the demand pattern. Friday 1802 contract last trading day, however, the market quotation concentration has been significantly reduced, the market has initially shown the Spring Festival atmosphere.
Aluminum: global financial and commodity markets plummeted, basic metals plummeted, and recently disguised exports and formal aluminum exports have increased. therefore, on the one hand, Lun Aluminum was suppressed by the rebound in the US dollar this week, on the other hand, it was favored by reverse funds. During the week, the overall performance was weaker than Shanghai Aluminum, falling back from a high of $2215 per tonne, several times under the 60-day line support, low hit $2148 / tonne, Lunalco week after the decline slowed, slightly stopped signs of decline, the 60-day line showed a certain degree of support. China's exports to overseas continue to rise, with the ratio expected to fluctuate between 6.5 and 6.6 next week, but with strong technical support for the 60-day line, which is expected to run at $2,150-2,190 a tonne next week.
On the Shanghai aluminum side, Shanghai aluminum continued its decline at the beginning of the week. under active short pressure, the low hit 14180 yuan per ton at one point, but then rebounded high to touch the 10-day moving average support of 14465 yuan / tonne. after the week, it basically revolved around the 5-day moving average. Showing a desire to stop falling for the time being, the Shanghai Aluminum Index increased its position from 808000 to around 820000, and it is worth noting that there has been an increase in long tentative entries. In the short term, Shanghai Aluminum may maintain a volatile market, but on the one hand, the current low aluminum price has slowed down the release of new production capacity, on the other hand, it has extinguished the enthusiasm of electrolytic aluminum enterprises that have shut down during the heating season. therefore, the release of the supply side has slowed down. At the same time, according to the current SMM survey, the orders of downstream enterprises after the Spring Festival have performed better, and there is even the possibility that the intensity of inventory removal will even exceed expectations. therefore, there is limited room for aluminum prices to continue to fall in the medium term. But at the same time, we should pay attention to the marginal change of safety on the cost side. For the next three trading days, Shanghai Aluminum concussion is expected to run at 14,150 ≤ 14,400 yuan / ton.
On the spot side, transactions this week are mostly concentrated among traders, the enthusiasm of cargo holders is obviously not high, the market can circulate a limited supply of goods, at the same time, middlemen arbitrage driven by a strong willingness to accept goods, but there is little downstream participation, so the performance of the discount is stable. Between 130 and 100 yuan per ton. The lower reaches have basically entered the rhythm of holidays, and most traders have also had holidays. next week is the early stage after delivery, and there are only three trading days before the Spring Festival holiday. it is expected that the spot market will show a weak supply and demand, and the spot discount will expand to between 220 and 180 yuan per ton. More show the value of the market state.
Lead: as of Feb. 8, LME lead stocks fell 22 days in a row to 126950 tons, but the gains were overrun, coupled with the strengthening of the dollar, returning to the top of the 90, Lun lead plummeted, almost giving up nearly two months of gains. It was as low as $2480 a tonne during the week. It was down $162.5, or 6.09 per cent, at $2506.5 a tonne on Friday. Lun lead changed last week's strong pattern, falling below all moving average support, while the lower pre-platform of $2470 or there may still be some support, next week Lun lead or shock finishing pattern, running at 2470 ≤ 2,565 US dollars / ton.
This week, affected by the approaching Spring Festival in China, the supply and demand are bleak, coupled with the sharp setback in lead, the overall center of gravity of the Shanghai lead main 1803 contract has moved down, reaching a low of 18995 yuan per ton during the week, and then received support at the Wanjiu integer level, ending at 14 million yuan per ton, at 19020 yuan per ton. Weekly decline of 3.26%. During the week, the trading volume was reduced by more than 44000 hands to more than 218,000 hands, and the position was reduced by more than 12000 hands to more than 2.9 hands. The lead in Shanghai period runs below the average of each road, below or near the previous platform of 18800 yuan. at the same time, the domestic supply and demand market has entered the Spring Festival state, and next week it may still be mainly guided by Lun lead, and the lead in Shanghai period is expected to show a weak concussion trend. It runs at 18800 ≤ 19300 yuan / ton.
This week spot lead mainstream transactions 19075 ≤ 19675 yuan / ton. During the week, lead prices continue to fluctuate and weaken, as the Spring Festival approaches, logistics have been suspended, refinery shipping enthusiasm has declined, and bulk quotation is still relatively strong; the trade market because of the lack of supply, coupled with near delivery, cargo holders to maintain water prices; The refineries in the regenerated lead market prepared the final raw materials before the festival, while the shipment of refined lead was reduced, the price difference narrowed, and the average price of SMM1# lead was affixed with 50 yuan / ton to flat water. The downstream storage enterprise holiday increases, only a few carry on the final purchase before the festival, the market transaction is extremely light. Next week, spot lead may be sold at 18900 ~ 19,200 yuan / ton. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival, the primary lead refinery basically suspended the shipment of bulk orders, at the same time, some small and medium-sized refineries are on holiday, the supply of goods in the trade market has been increasing, and there is no procurement demand downstream, it is expected to maintain the quotation of rising water next week, but there is no market; The regenerated lead market is also due to the approach of the Spring Festival, with the exception of a few large refineries that continue to produce, other refineries are basically closed, and the price difference or stability of regenerated refined lead is expected to be maintained next week. Another downstream battery companies, with the exception of a few giant enterprises can still produce to years ago, the rest of the basic holiday this week, next week there is no procurement demand in the market. Recycled lead concentrate will be sold at 18850 ≤ 19,150 yuan / ton next week. In addition, for the market after the Spring Festival, the industry generally expects rigid demand to replenish inventory after the beginning of the year, but because of the current high inventory of finished products of battery enterprises, rigid demand replenishment or relatively concentrated in the second week after the start of the year, spot water is easy to rise and difficult to fall.
Zinc: us stocks plummeted this week, and the US index rose three times in a row to reverse the decline and step back on the 90 mark; Crude oil supply is expected to increase, at the same time, EIA data are negative pile, oil prices continue to lose all EMA support, under the test of 60 levels, macro-shift to "pull the hind legs", the base metal pressure weakened. This week, the zinc center of gravity sank step by step, testing the effectiveness of the 40-day line below. At the beginning of the week, Lun Zinc was still high above 3500 US dollars / ton, and its kinetic energy was still sufficient, touching 3550 US dollars / tonne, and then fatigue began to show, timely macro benefits continued to tighten, Lun Zinc lost 3500 US dollars / ton integer position, and struggled on the lower edge. Several attempts to step back failed to stand firm; Timely risk aversion spread, the withdrawal of funds intensified, Lunzin broke down, down 3370 US dollars per tonne, but the fundamental support was strong, some bulls bought at low prices to remedy, and Lunzin ran around US $3400 per tonne on a 40-day line. The range is less than $30 per ton. As of Friday, the trading volume of Lunzin increased by about 5585 hands to about 50216 hands, and the position decreased by about 4257 hands to about 307000 hands.
This week Shanghai zinc completed the main replacement, Shanghai zinc main 1804 contracts recorded four consecutive negative fell below the 40-day line support. At the beginning of the session, more sentiment still dominated the market. Shanghai Zinc mostly entered the level and tried to measure an integer of 27000 US dollars per ton, and stopped at 26995 yuan. then the market sentiment began to turn around, the air force greatly increased, and the small dive leaked to a narrow range of shocks near 26550 yuan / ton. The upper and lower amplitudes are about 100 yuan / ton, the decline in the outer market is difficult to level off at the right time, short confidence has greatly increased, the army is pressing down, the Shanghai zinc ladder has fallen by 26005 yuan per ton, and the short air profit has left the market, and the Shanghai zinc decline has been given a respite for the time being. Back to 26400 yuan / ton near consolidation, and the end of the year, bearish atmosphere has not significantly alleviated, funds continue to exit, Shanghai zinc operation weak loss of 40-day line support fell 26000 yuan / ton integer position. As of Friday, trading volume in the Shanghai Zinc Index had increased by about 278000 to about 2.996 million, and positions had fallen by about 31318 to about 473000.
This week, the contract between 0 # zinc and Shanghai zinc 1803 in Shanghai market expanded from 100 yuan / ton to 120 yuan / ton, and 0 # Shuangyan pair expanded from 60 yuan / ton to 100 yuan / ton in March. This week Shanghai zinc weakens the center of gravity to sink gradually, the smelter gradually cherishes the sale, mainly by the long single operation; the trader week one after another has the holiday, the cargo merchant is mainly to ship the goods to clear the stock primarily, the early market inertia is high price, but the demand is limited and difficult to maintain, the afternoon market adjusts the price to ship more; At the beginning of the week, the enthusiasm of the downstream warehouse preparation was OK, and the decline in zinc prices in the middle of the week also stimulated some transactions, but the demand for stock preparation was significantly weaker than that of last week. The market traded well this week, with a small drop in volume from last week.
This week, Guangdong 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc 1803 contract expanded from last week's discount 80 ≤ 70 yuan / ton to 110-90 yuan / ton. This week Shanghai zinc high fall, under the test 40-day line support, smelters to maintain the normal pace of shipment, traders have entered the holiday cycle, trading is also gradually weakening, some traders intend to receive goods before the festival, but the game stalemate transaction is limited; And the downstream enterprises are basically on holiday, there are still a small number of low reserve in the first half of the week, and rarely enter the market in the second half of the week. The market transaction is light, the overall transaction volume is not as good as last week.
This week, the current zinc in Tianjin market narrowed from 250 yuan per ton last week to 50 yuan per ton to about 150 yuan per tonne, and the contract for Shanghai zinc 1803 fell from 250 yuan per ton last week to 120 yuan per ton with the Shanghai zinc disk. And market trade volume reduced, quickly narrowed to 50 yuan / ton to 100 yuan / ton of water. This week refinery shipments are normal, with the arrival of the Spring Festival, the market transactions are cold, some shareholders quoted firm, some downstream implementation of the last procurement plan, a little take the goods, the overall transaction is slightly better than last week.
Tin: Lunxi rose on Monday alone, hitting as high as $21910 a tonne, before falling continuously, hitting a low of $21260 a tonne on Thursday and closing at $21380 a tonne, down $90 a tonne from Thursday. During the week, transactions totaled 1680 hands, down 673 hands from last week, and positions increased by 764 hands in 18843 hands. LME tin stocks were 1845 tonnes on Thursday, down 110 tonnes from Thursday. The dollar index stabilised this week, regaining three averages of 5-20 days in a row, putting pressure on basic metals, including Lunxi, which, in addition to rising continuously, has its own demand for a pullback adjustment.
This week, the trend of tin's main 1805 contract in Shanghai rose first and then slowed, hitting a maximum of 151940 yuan per ton, its highest level in more than six months, and then fell sharply, falling below the 20-day moving average on Friday afternoon, with a low close to 147000 yuan per ton, and closing at 149360 yuan per ton on Thursday. It's up 90 yuan per ton from last Thursday. A total of 115000 hands were traded during the week, an increase of 496 hands over the previous week, and a position of 24580 hands increased by 262 hands. This week's trend was mainly caused by the rise after the bulls concentrated in the market and the decline in their profit positions, and recent expectations that the supply of tin mines in the WA state of Myanmar may tighten further have attracted capital attention to tin futures.
Spot prices in Shanghai fell back this week, reaching a peak of 148,000 to 151,000 yuan per tonne on Wednesday, followed by a correction in Shanghai tin on Thursday, with mainstream 147,000 to 148,500 yuan per tonne as of Friday, up 250 yuan per tonne from Friday. Trading in the Shanghai tin market has eased further this week, with some traders and smelters starting to take off. downstream companies are reluctant to buy because of the closing work and high tin prices. the main momentum of market prices comes from Shanghai tin disk. In the aspect of rising discount, the current price difference during the week is as high as 2500 ≤ 3000 yuan / tonne, and with the price falling in the second half of the week, the discount range shrinks to 1500 ≤ 2200 yuan / ton. Yunxi has maintained a discount range of 500 ≤ 600 yuan / ton because of the scarce source of goods.
Nickel: the sell-off in US stocks over the past week, coupled with rising views that the Fed could raise interest rates four times this year, pushed the dollar back to the 90 mark and the offshore renminbi fell back to 6.34. EIA inventories rose for two weeks in a row, coupled with a sharp rise in US production, oil prices plummeted, US crude oil fell to 60 levels. The basic metal fell this week. after rising slightly to US $13820 per ton at the beginning of the week, the market game was fierce. Lun Ni fell under pressure from a high level and fell below multiple averages. as of Friday 17: 30, the weekly K line closed negative at US $12905 / ton. Trading volume fell 51 hands to 51076 hands and positions fell 2963 hands to 260000 hands, down 4.44% from the previous week.
This week, Shanghai Nickel's main 1805 contract opened at 104400 yuan / tonne. under the pressure of the strong US dollar, the center of gravity of Shanghai Nickel gradually moved downwards to 40 antennas at the end of the week, as low as 99100 yuan / ton. As of Friday morning, the weekly K line also closed negative, closing at 98770 yuan / ton, down 5.51 per cent from last week, with volume up 1.796 million to 6.982 million and positions down 79000 to 443000.
This week Jinchuan company shipping enthusiasm is OK, Shanghai quotation from Friday's 104000 yuan / ton down to 99500 yuan / ton, a cumulative reduction of 4500 yuan / ton. Jinchuan nickel than Wuxi main 1803 contract to maintain a rise of 100 million yuan / ton, Russian nickel than Wuxi 1803 contract is adjusted from 200 million yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to about 200 yuan / ton at the end of the week. In terms of transactions, nickel prices plummeted at the beginning of the week, downstream production enterprises replenished on demand at low prices, but close to the end of the year, a strong festive atmosphere, some downstream, traders into the rhythm of the holiday, the whole week of the market transaction activity is general.
Note: this article is only part of the SMM Weekly Bulletin, for more information
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