SMM, 5 January5 / PRNewswire-FirstCall-Asianet /
In the first week of 2018, macro data in Europe and the United States performed brightly in December, with the dollar index falling below the 92 mark and US crude oil breaking through $60 a barrel. Most of the basic metals remained high and fluctuating, rising steadily, nickel led again, SMMI.Ni rose 1.93 percent, a fire at a nickel factory of Jinchuan Company, nickel prices rose by 12835 US dollars per ton, sorted out around the 5-day moving average, Jinchuan Nickel maintained rising water. And the willingness to pay is obvious. Lun zinc brush reached a new 10-year high of $3367 per tonne, Shanghai zinc passively rose to 26155 yuan / tonne, spot post-session repost rose, the performance was also strong, SMMI.Zn rose 1.48 per cent. Shanghai tin stabilized after the rally, the rise slowed down, spot in Yunxi and other smelters with the support of high prices, low-cost goods are difficult to find, SMMI.Sn rose 1.42%. Lun lead is close to US $2600 / ton, Shanghai lead is close to a near high position, the spot is also rising accordingly, the northern blizzard is coming, the transaction is better, and the SMMI.Pb is up 0.65%. Shanghai aluminum reduction in the range of 15000 yuan above the operation, spot discount significantly narrowed, traders active, SMMI.Al rose 0.48 per cent. After copper refreshed its high of $7310 before the festival, there was a technical correction, but Shanghai copper fell 1.05 per cent, but spot receipt water rose significantly, traders bought actively, so spot slightly narrowed some of the decline, SMMI.Cu fell 0.92 per cent. The SMMI index is flat this week, after this week's repair adjustment, next week in the premise of continued sharp appreciation of the renminbi, and metals into the delivery cycle, but also in January of the downstream centralized buying cycle, the base metals as a whole will be easy to rise rather than fall.
Copper: at the beginning of the new year, the macro data of Europe and the United States in December were bright, the dollar index once fell below the 92 mark, and US crude oil broke through $60 a barrel. After the minutes of the Fed's FOMC meeting on Wednesday night, the dollar index rebounded slightly, with Luncun giving up its gains after a strong 15-day positive brush out of a new high, with a technical pullback to near the 10-day average of $7165 a tonne. Lun copper rose and fell little this week, down $36.5 a tonne, a small increase in positions of more than 2,000 hands, trading volume decreased by more than 6,000 hands.
Domestically, Caixin's manufacturing PMI was better than expected in December, while official manufacturing PMI was flat, standing above the boom and bust line for 17 months in a row, accelerating the appreciation of the renminbi and falling below 6.50 during the week. After New Year's Day opened the market, the long head fell into the bag for security, reducing the warehouse down. On Wednesday, a list of the second batch of proposed import restrictions was released, and the second batch of imports recommended for approval remained sharply lower than the same period last year, with Shanghai copper receiving support at 54750 yuan and returning to 55000 yuan per ton. Weekly decline of 1.05%, holding volume fell. Shanghai copper index positions reduced by more than 20, 000 hands, trading volume reduced by more than 830000 hands.
On the spot side, on the first trading day of the New year, funds eased, traders light inventory, cargo holders cherish the willingness to sell high prices, the rise of discount than before the festival significantly narrowed to 170 ≤ 110 yuan / ton. After a brief stalemate, as the price difference widened to about 160 yuan / ton every other month, traders took the initiative to actively receive goods, the quotation narrowed rapidly. within two days, it was difficult to find a source of cheap goods for good copper. on Friday, the spot quotation had reached 20 / ton ~ 10 / ton. During the week, transactions rose first and then suppressed. with the quotation above the rising water, the trading heat of trade speculation decreased. This week, most of the market transactions are led by traders, downstream rigid demand replenishment, buying power has not yet been significantly followed.
Aluminum: in terms of aluminum, it fell back from a high of 2290 US dollars per ton at the beginning of the week, recording two consecutive negatives, hitting a low of 2212 US dollars per tonne, rebounding after finding support at the 10-day line, but the rebound was subjected to downward pressure from the 5-day moving average, and the rebound was not sustained. Position increased by about 21000 hands to 724000 hands, short selling power increased significantly, repair part of the ratio. Within the ratio of 6.7 to 6.8, domestic formal aluminum exports and disguised export orders have surged, thus filling some of the overseas supply and demand gap to a certain extent. at present, anti-set funds are more involved, and Lun Al's ability to continue to take action is relatively limited. It is expected that next week Lun Aluminum will oscillate and run at US $2190 to US $2,250 per ton.
After the festival, the Shanghai Aluminum 1803 contract fell back from a high of 15470 yuan / ton, followed by a narrow range of shocks in the trading day, hitting a low of 15015 yuan / tonne. during the week, the mainstream operation range was between 15,130 yuan and 15,230 yuan / tonne. the Shanghai Aluminum Index showed a reduction in its position. The position fell from around 920000 hands to about 900000 hands, and the trend of Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated in the bottom of the fund. In the process of anti-arbitrage participation, the domestic Shanghai aluminum may be relatively strong, but given the fundamentals, the center of gravity is still at the risk of moving down, is expected to run at 14,850 ≤ 15,350 yuan / ton next week.
On the spot side, at the beginning of the year, the discount gradually narrowed from 380 yuan / ton to about 200 yuan / tonne for two reasons: first, the buying and selling period of middlemen was active, and the absolute value of the negative basis difference was expected to narrow, and the second was to enter the New year. In order to carry out the new issue of long orders, most of the traders who have placed long orders are net short positions and need to receive and buy hedge and delivery orders, so the spot market is very active this week, but the willingness to buy is still low due to order factors downstream. As a result, inventory data continued to grow. Gradually entering the delivery cycle next week, in theory, the discount can continue to narrow, but if the discount narrows to less than 200 yuan / ton, the early arbitrageur can liquidate and sell, and there are further abundant expectations for the market to circulate goods. As a result, it is expected that the spot discount will not continue to narrow significantly next week, with a high probability of trading concentrated between 200 and 150 yuan per ton.
Lead: the center of gravity of lead continued to move up this week, the dollar remained weak at the beginning of the week, and broke the new low since September 8, 2017, with bulls pouring in, recording a big positive line on the first day of trading, and the blizzard weather in the United States was good for lead consumption. Lun Pb surged to $2594 a tonne on Thursday, its highest level since October 4, 2017. as of Friday, it was trading at $2584 a tonne, up $86 a tonne, or 3.44 per cent, as trading rose sharply. Lun lead runs to the Brin channel near the upper rail, the lower moving average is in a multi-headed arrangement, next week or continue the strong shock trend, is expected to run at 2500 ≤ 2600 US dollars / ton.
This week, the focus of the Shanghai lead main 1802 contract gradually moved up. at the beginning of the week, after concussion and consolidation near Wanjiu, immediately after the Lun lead rally, coupled with the impact of many domestic provinces of rain and snow on the pre-good lead price, Shanghai lead continued to fluctuate upward. It hit a weekly high of 19565 yuan per ton and a minimum of 18880 yuan per ton on Friday. it ended at 1500 yuan at 19480 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.62 percent per week. During the week, trading volume decreased by 49808 hands to 186000 hands, while position volume increased by 2346 hands to 42652 hands. Shanghai lead runs above the average of all roads, long forces are strong, next week or under the lead of Lun lead, maintain a strong concussion pattern, is expected to run in 18900 to 19700 yuan / ton next week.
This week spot lead mainstream transactions 18925 ≤ 19,400 yuan / ton. During the week, lead prices continued to strong shocks, in addition to Henan refinery production restrictions have not been alleviated, the willingness of refineries in other areas to ship bulk orders is acceptable, and some of the discount water has been slightly expanded; The trade market holder mostly anticipates the future market, the low price cherishes the sale mood to be obvious, the quotation basically turns to the rising water quotation, the regenerated refined lead market because of the refinery production restriction alleviates, the transaction price discount expands to the SMM1# lead average price reduction 150 million 200 yuan / ton; The consumption of all kinds of batteries in the downstream market varies greatly, the increase or decrease of enterprises is different. in addition, the lead price is high, the downstream replenishment is more cautious, and the market transaction is only possible at the beginning of the week. Next week, spot lead may be sold at 18900 ~ 19,600 yuan / ton. The influence of primary lead production restriction in Henan Refinery may be alleviated one after another, but some refineries in Hunan and Guangxi have been overhauled, and the bulk orders of the refineries have maintained a high price. The impact of production restrictions in Anhui is basically alleviated, in addition to the supply of waste batteries, the transaction price next week is expected to discount or continue to expand; the trade market because of the market pre-market prices, coupled with the approaching delivery date, the holder maintains a high price to ship; Downstream, the battery market as a whole consumption is not prosperous, all kinds of battery enterprises start cautiously, maintain on-demand replenishment state, but high prices carefully. Recycled lead concentrate will be sold at 18700 ≤ 19,350 yuan / ton next week.
Zinc: this week because of geopolitical factors ferment, resulting in a risk premium, superimposed API and EIA data are relatively bright, oil prices hovering around 62; And because the hidden danger of inflation still exists, although there is a good stimulus in the US market, the US index is still in decline and has not been able to return to 92. New Year's Day returned from the holiday, Lun zinc continued to rise, continued to brush the peak of 10 years. At the beginning of the week, the US index showed signs of fatigue, the RMB appreciated sharply, the basic metals rose generally, and Lun Zn touched as high as US $3352 / tonne, followed by strong profit-taking sentiment at the high level, some of which stopped at the end of the market, and Lun Zn fell back to around US $3330 / ton for collation and operation. Then macro-Lido stimulus, the colored plate rose again, Lun zinc homeopathic rise, based on LME inventory of 180000 tons near the boycott, and then brush the 10-year peak to $3367 / ton. As of Friday, trading volume rose 2856 hands to 29228 hands and positions rose 1579 hands to 301000 hands.
This week Shanghai zinc completed the main change, Shanghai zinc main 1803 contract with the rise in the outer plate, the center of gravity steadily rose. New Year's Day returned to Shanghai Zinc first to make up for the broken position of the outer plate to touch 26080 yuan / ton, and then long profited to leave. under the pressure of short sky and high pressure, Shanghai Zinc gave up all the gains, but the outer market did not decrease, and Shanghai Zinc returned to near 25940 yuan / ton, showing pressure at a high level. After superimposing the outer plate, the fatigue state gradually developed, and the weak concussion operation of Shanghai zinc decreased by 25670 yuan / ton, followed by the strong strength of Lun zinc, the peak value of continuous brushing, and the passive rise of Shanghai zinc by 26155 yuan / ton. As of Friday, trading volume in the Shanghai Zinc Index had fallen by about 1.015 million to about 1.575 million, and positions had increased by about 55344 to about 507000.
This week, the Shanghai market 0 # zinc to Shanghai zinc 1802 contract water 60-80 yuan / ton, this week from discount to water; 0 # Shuangyan rose 80-90 yuan / ton in February, an increase of 50 yuan / ton compared with last week. Zinc prices have rallied this week. During the week, the spot market of Shanghai zinc was mainly affected by the execution of long orders in 2018, the supply of goods was slightly tight, and the rising water continued to rise; downstream consumption was weak, this week only rigid demand procurement. In the second half of the week, under the influence of heavy snow weather, the transportation of self-lifting steam goods in the northern refinery was blocked, the train transportation was not affected, and the arrival volume was affected to a certain extent. The market as a whole is trading better this week than it was last week.
This week, Guangdong 0 # current zinc to Shanghai zinc main 1802 contract compared with last week flat water-water 40 yuan / ton to discount 40-discount 70 yuan / ton, 0 # ordinary brand Shanghai and Guangdong price difference from 70 yuan / ton to around 120 yuan / ton. During the week, zinc prices rose to a high level of 26000 yuan per ton, and smelters and traders shipped actively, constantly lowering the discount to stimulate dealings. however, downstream enterprises feared high zinc prices and were in a strong wait-and-see mood, and although there was a slight improvement near the weekend, they were only purchasing for rigid demand. The volume of transactions in the market was not as good as that of last week, and the overall trading activity was also lower than that of last week.
This week Tianjin market 0 # zinc compared with Shanghai market from last week's discount 150 yuan / ton near 100 yuan / ton to 250 yuan / ton. The contract for Shanghai Zinc 1802 is about 180 yuan / ton with a discount of 250 yuan per ton. The center of gravity of zinc prices continued to rise this week, although North China is affected by heavy snow weather, but based on the normal arrival of refineries before, spot supply in Tianjin is still stable. However, downstream consumption is still weak, afraid of high zinc prices, poor willingness to buy, the market is cold, the market as a whole is not as good as last week.
Tin: high pressure swings this week, mainly around $20000 a tonne, closed at $19875 a tonne on Thursday, down $70 a tonne from last Thursday. A total of 907 hands were traded during the week, down 539 hands from last week, and 15617 positions were reduced by 159 hands. LME tin stocks were 2330 tonnes on Thursday, up 110 tonnes from Thursday. After New Year's Day's holiday, the dollar continued to fluctuate at a low level, boosted by US ISM economic data on Wednesday alone, rebounding in intraday trading to briefly recover the 92 level; it fell again on Thursday.
The main Shanghai tin 1805 contract fell back this week, hitting as high as 146740 yuan / ton on Monday, before the rally stalled and turned into a volatile trend, closing at 145310 yuan / ton on Thursday, up 920 yuan / ton from last Thursday. A total of 34316 hands were traded during the week, down 15852 hands from last week, and positions increased by 1486 hands in 17698 hands. Shanghai tin long and short competition intensified, short high into the market to curb the trend of Shanghai tin.
Spot prices in Shanghai and tin rose sharply this week and stabilised, with mainstream trading at 142, 000 yuan per tonne as of Friday, up 2000 yuan, or 1.4 per cent, from Friday. This week, Yunnan tin smelters generally held firm prices, most of which were quoted at 145000 yuan per ton or more, with a clear willingness to sell them; the traders' market fluctuated along with the trend of tin plates in Shanghai, but there were fewer low-priced goods, and the market kept low prices around 142000 yuan per ton. At present, the market set of goods cloud tin to 1805 contract discount 1500 yuan / ton, ordinary cloud word discount 2200 ≤ 2500 yuan / ton. The surplus of tin ingots in the market has declined, and the collective shutdown of Yunnan smelters in December accelerated the consumption of excess inventory in the market. Overall consumption is weak this week, and the willingness to enter the market downstream is limited.
Nickel: Lun nickel opened at $12700 a tonne this week. at the beginning of the week, nickel prices rose by $12835 a tonne as a result of a fire at a Jinchuan company's nickel factory. crude oil strengthened after hitting a low of $12350 a tonne on Wednesday, nickel prices rebounded, and Zhouwei Lun nickel was sorted out at a high level. As of 1700 on Friday, the weekly K line closed at $12580 a tonne, down 0.51 per cent, with volume up 7366 to 30000 and positions up 1682 to 256000.
This week, Shanghai Nickel's main 1805 contract jumped 99000 yuan / ton, fell back from a high of 99980 yuan / ton to 97210 yuan / ton in the first half of the week, and then returned steadily to Shanghai Nickel at the end of the week to adjust broadly at the high level. As of Friday morning, the weekly K line closed at 98580 yuan / ton, up 1.77 percent during the week. the center of gravity continued to move upward from last week, with trading volume down 1.269 million hands to 2.439 million hands and positions down 6838 hands to 499000 hands.
The average weekly price of SMM1# electrolytic nickel was 97594 yuan per ton, up 2859 yuan per ton from last week. This week, Jinchuan's Shanghai offer was raised to 98200 yuan per ton from 96400 yuan / ton on Friday, up 1800 yuan per ton. Compared with the end of last year, this week some holders of the intention to increase the price is obvious, Jinchuan nickel than Wuxi main 1801 contract to maintain a rise of about 350 yuan / ton, Russian nickel than Wuxi 1801 contract to maintain a discount of about 250 yuan / ton throughout the week. In terms of transactions, the market transactions in the first week of the New year have improved compared with last week. in the middle and end of the week, enterprises such as downstream steel mills and alloys took advantage of the low amount of goods, downstream consumption is still in the off-season, the overall trading volume is still low, nickel prices throughout the week turnover activity is general.
Note: this article is only part of the SMM Weekly Bulletin, for more information
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