iconJan 2, 2018 15:55

In 2017, driven by the improvement of the macro environment and the improvement of the related market, China's manganese market has also undergone many changes. The price of silicon-manganese alloy and imported manganese ore rose, while the electrolytic manganese with 200 series stainless steel as the main downstream was in the doldrums. Looking back on 2017, there will be many market people concerned about the domestic manganese market compared with previous years, what new trends have emerged? After communicating with market participants in all aspects of the industrial chain, SMM analysts summarized the ten most important new trends in the manganese industry in 2017. For more details, please refer to the China Manganese Industry chain report 2014-2020.

According to Chinese customs data, China imported 19.6193 million tons of manganese ore from January to November 2017, an increase of 30 percent over the same period in 2016 and $3.697 billion in January-November imports, an increase of 113 per cent over the same period in 2016. The sharp increase in imports reflects the strong demand for overseas medium and high grade manganese ore in the domestic manganese alloy industry. The surge in imports fully reflects this year's "black series" industrial chain market to boost the demand for related varieties, in essence, is the redistribution of profits in the iron and steel industry.

2. the dispersion of manganese ore inventory port has been strengthened.

According to SMM, Tianjin Port is still the first choice for spot traders of manganese ore in the northern market in 2017, but for many large alloy factories that directly import manganese ore, they have begun to make more use of preferential policies from other ports to save costs. For example, Jingtang Port in Hebei, Caofeidian and Nangang in Tianjin. In addition, some large alloy factories in the south are gradually trying to import manganese ore through the Yangtze River port.

3. increase of import dependence of manganese carbonate ore.

According to SMM statistics, China imported 1.7851 million tons of Ghanaian manganese ore from January to November 2017, an increase of nearly 2 percent over the same period in 2016. although the increase is not obvious, there are factors that consume inventory, but Ghana's manganese carbonate ore is mainly used in electrolytic manganese production. Its main consumer is Ningxia Tianyuan, the largest electrolytic manganese producer in China. in the second half of 2017, with Ningxia Tianyuan opening a capacity of 800000 tons per year, its demand for Ghana's manganese carbonate ore will continue to grow.

4. under the pressure of environmental protection, it is not easy to start the open-pit manganese mine in China, and the output decreases.

According to SMM, in the past two years, the production and the number of mining units of open-pit manganese oxide ore in China have decreased significantly due to the small scale of production capacity, the pressure of environmental protection and the integration of mining rights. Most of the open-pit manganese ore is manganese oxide ore, which is used in the production of ferroalloy. under the condition that the ferroalloy industry is still in strong demand, the imported manganese ore will further replace the domestic manganese oxide ore in the future.

5. the output of electrolytic manganese has soared, and the competition in the industry will be very fierce in the next few years.

According to SMM statistics, China's electrolytic manganese production is expected to reach 1.57 million tons in 2017, an increase of 33 percent over 2016. the main reason is the expansion of Tianyuan, Ningxia, the largest producer of electrolytic manganese, at the end of 2016 and August 2017. After the two expansion, the production capacity has reached 800000 tons / year from the original 500000 tons / year, and the actual operating rate is stable above 80 per cent. Market participants believe that the current growth rate of electrolytic manganese supply is significantly higher than the growth rate of downstream demand, the overproduction is more obvious, the industry will be in a competitive pattern in the next few years, or more small and medium-sized enterprises will gradually withdraw from the market.

6. the price of chemical excipients rose sharply during the year, which significantly increased the production cost of electrolytic manganese.

In 2017, due to the increased pressure on domestic environmental protection, a large number of chemical plants were forced to stop production and rectification, and the change in the pattern of supply and demand has led to a fierce rise in a variety of chemical excipients. Take Formex Sodium (SDD) as an example, its price has risen from the original level of 5000 ~ 6000 yuan to more than 10,000 yuan.

7. silicomanganese futures trading is more active and has important guidelines for spot market prices

According to Zheng Shang's statistics, the volume of manganese-silicon futures in 2017 was significantly higher than in previous years, with more than 10.6 million hands traded in May, compared with a monthly turnover of only 1 million hands in 2016. In 2017, several waves of relatively obvious large-scale prices in the spot market also contained futures leading factors. market participants believe that futures in the future will play a more guiding role in the spot market for silicon-manganese alloys. Enterprises in each link of the industrial chain will make more use of futures tools to hedge risks and stabilize profit space.

8. clearing the ground strip steel causes the silicon manganese 6014 market to shrink, improves the product target

At present, the silicon and manganese grades used in mainstream steel mills are mainly 6517 #, and the shrinkage of 6014 # market scale has been a trend in recent years. In 2017, after the national heavy fist hit the retreat strip steel, 6014 # silicon and manganese demand has been significantly hit, and the manufacturers that are still in production have basically improved the product indicators, and the direction of improvement is mainly focused on phosphorus indicators.

9. the production capacity of high silicon manganese under construction is huge, and the competition pattern in the future is fierce.

According to SMM, there are not many plans to expand production of ordinary silicon and manganese in the northern region in 2018, but high silicon manganese still has more production capacity under construction. Including Wulanchabu majestic Everbright New Materials Co., Ltd. annual output of 130000 tons of high silicon manganese project and Ningxia Tianyuan Manganese Industry (Group) Co., Ltd. high silicon manganese annual output of 75000 tons of high silicon manganese project. The main downstream of high silicon manganese is stainless steel. in recent years, the market scale has not changed much. in 2017, the market scale was even squeezed by the low price of electrolytic manganese, and the entry of new production capacity will aggravate the competition pattern of the industry. More small and medium-sized enterprises will withdraw from the market.

10. the rise of new energy automobile industry, the prospect of manganese tetroxide and high purity manganese sulfate is bright.

Ternary lithium battery is a kind of lithium battery which uses lithium nickel cobalt manganate as cathode material and graphite as anode material. Different from lithium iron phosphate, the voltage platform of ternary lithium battery is very high, which means that the specific energy and specific power of ternary lithium battery are higher at the same volume or weight. In addition, ternary lithium batteries also have great advantages in high rate charging and low temperature resistance. With the further development of ternary batteries, ternary materials will have more demand for high purity manganese sulfate and manganese tetroxide in the future.

SMM Manganese Research Group is about to release "China Manganese Industry chain report 2014-2020", including the latest core data, price forecast and market research results of SMM Manganese Industry chain. for customers who need to subscribe, please consult: 021 ≤ 51666804, Q2881050930, contact: Liu Yuqiao

Manganese ore
silicon-manganese alloy
electrolytic manganese

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