SMM Evening Comments (Apr 19)-Shanghai Metals Market

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SMM Evening Comments (Apr 19)

Price Review & Forecast 05:30:11PM Apr 19, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Apr 19 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals ended mixed on Friday April 19 as lead increased 0.49%, aluminium jumped 0.21%, tin grew 0.11%, while nickel slid 1.1%, copper dropped 0.42%, and zinc fell 0.23%.

The ferrous complex mostly rebounded as hot-rolled coil went up 0.55% and coke increased 1.06%, while rebar lost 0.03%.  

Copper: The most-traded SHFE June contract faced pressure from the five- and 10- day moving averages, but support at the 20-day moving average prevented it from declining. It increased as shorts exited in the afternoon, and ended at 49,530 yuan/mt, with open interests down 2,358 lots to 188,000 lots. Some 185 million yuan of capital flew out of all SHFE copper contracts, topping base metals. We see the June contract testing support at 49,500 yuan/mt tonight. 

Aluminium: The most-liquid SHFE June contract extended its increase as longs pulled it to a high of 14,095 yuan/mt and settled it at 14,080 yuan/mt. Open interests grew 14,120 lots to 287,000 lots. The MACD red line shortened and the KDJ indicators expanded upwards. We retain a bullish outlook on aluminium prices and expect the contract to trade at 14,000-14,100 yuan/mt tonight. 

Zinc: The most-active SHFE June contract found support at the 60-day moving average as a decline of nearly 10,000 mt in social inventories of refined zinc this week eased bearish sentiment across investors. The contract closed 0.49% higher on the day at 21,640 yuan/mt, with open interests down 2,004 lots to 285,000 lots as shorts exited. It is expected to trade between the 40- and 60-day moving averages tonight. 

Nickel: Weak fundamentals weighed the most-liquid SHFE June contract to test support at 98,800 yuan/mt. Departing shorts settled the contract at 99,230 yuan/mt, down 1.1% on the day, with open interests down 4,000 lots to 290,000 lots. As the KDJ indicators expanded downwards and the MACD green line shortened, it is likely to continue to test support at 98,000 yuan/mt tonight. 

Lead: The most-traded SHFE June contract extended its rangebound trend as it slid to the daily moving average after it increased to a high of 16,530 yuan/mt, and ended at 16,500 yuan/mt. Despite the upward trend in the five-day moving average, longs entered cautiously today. 

Tin: The most-active SHFE September contract rebounded from lows and closed at 148,590 yuan/mt as investors added their long and cut shorts. The five-day moving average provided some pressure. Tonight, the contract is expected to trade with support at 147,500 yuan/mt and pressure from 149,500 yuan/mt. 

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SMM Evening Comments (Apr 19)

Price Review & Forecast 05:30:11PM Apr 19, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Apr 19 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals ended mixed on Friday April 19 as lead increased 0.49%, aluminium jumped 0.21%, tin grew 0.11%, while nickel slid 1.1%, copper dropped 0.42%, and zinc fell 0.23%.

The ferrous complex mostly rebounded as hot-rolled coil went up 0.55% and coke increased 1.06%, while rebar lost 0.03%.  

Copper: The most-traded SHFE June contract faced pressure from the five- and 10- day moving averages, but support at the 20-day moving average prevented it from declining. It increased as shorts exited in the afternoon, and ended at 49,530 yuan/mt, with open interests down 2,358 lots to 188,000 lots. Some 185 million yuan of capital flew out of all SHFE copper contracts, topping base metals. We see the June contract testing support at 49,500 yuan/mt tonight. 

Aluminium: The most-liquid SHFE June contract extended its increase as longs pulled it to a high of 14,095 yuan/mt and settled it at 14,080 yuan/mt. Open interests grew 14,120 lots to 287,000 lots. The MACD red line shortened and the KDJ indicators expanded upwards. We retain a bullish outlook on aluminium prices and expect the contract to trade at 14,000-14,100 yuan/mt tonight. 

Zinc: The most-active SHFE June contract found support at the 60-day moving average as a decline of nearly 10,000 mt in social inventories of refined zinc this week eased bearish sentiment across investors. The contract closed 0.49% higher on the day at 21,640 yuan/mt, with open interests down 2,004 lots to 285,000 lots as shorts exited. It is expected to trade between the 40- and 60-day moving averages tonight. 

Nickel: Weak fundamentals weighed the most-liquid SHFE June contract to test support at 98,800 yuan/mt. Departing shorts settled the contract at 99,230 yuan/mt, down 1.1% on the day, with open interests down 4,000 lots to 290,000 lots. As the KDJ indicators expanded downwards and the MACD green line shortened, it is likely to continue to test support at 98,000 yuan/mt tonight. 

Lead: The most-traded SHFE June contract extended its rangebound trend as it slid to the daily moving average after it increased to a high of 16,530 yuan/mt, and ended at 16,500 yuan/mt. Despite the upward trend in the five-day moving average, longs entered cautiously today. 

Tin: The most-active SHFE September contract rebounded from lows and closed at 148,590 yuan/mt as investors added their long and cut shorts. The five-day moving average provided some pressure. Tonight, the contract is expected to trade with support at 147,500 yuan/mt and pressure from 149,500 yuan/mt.