SMM Evening Comments (Apr 18)-Shanghai Metals Market

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SMM Evening Comments (Apr 18)

Price Review & Forecast 05:40:40PM Apr 18, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Apr 18 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals, except for aluminium, declined across the board as nickel led the losses and ended 2.44% lower. Zinc slid 1.33%, lead lost 0.61%, tin fell 0.38%, and copper declined 0.08%. 

The ferrous complex also dropped as hot-rolled coil went down 1.35%, and coke and rebar closed 1.88% lower. 

Copper: Limited upward momentum prevented the most-active SHFE June contract from exceeding 49,670 yuan/mt in early trades. The contract dipped to an intraday low of 49,480 yuan/mt before it closed at 49,500 yuan/mt. Open interests lost 1,096 lots to 190,000 lots as longs exited. Some 95.88 million yuan of capital left all SHFE copper contracts, topping base metals. Weak manufacturing data in Germany and bearish signs from the KDJ indicators are likely to see the contract testing support at 49,500 yuan/mt tonight. 

Aluminium: Lower inventories of primary aluminium and aluminium billet across social warehouses bolstered the most-active SHFE June contract, while the other base metals slid. Longs pulled the contract to a high of 14,110 yuan/mt in the afternoon, before it closed at 14,055 yuan/mt. Open interests expanded 39,364 lots to 273,000 lots. Potential resumption of suspended capacity is expected to limit the upward room in the contract in the near term. The June contract is likely to trade at 14,000-14,100 yuan/mt tonight. 

Zinc: As LME zinc inventories continued to expand, the most-traded SHFE June contract fell below support at 21,500 yuan/mt, and dropped to a low of 21,490 yuan/mt. With support at the 60-day moving average, it closed at 21,535 yuan/mt. Accumulated shorts grew open interests by 18,200 lots to 287,000 lots. The market expected higher supplies at the end of April, and this limited upward momentum in prices. Tonight, the contract is expected to hover around the 60-day moving average. 

Nickel: The most-liquid SHFE June contract led the losses among base metals as shorts depressed it below the 60-day moving average, to a low of 98,700 yuan/mt, close to the 120-day moving average. It ended 2.44% lower on the day at 98,840 yuan/mt. Some 541 million yuan of capital flew into all SHFE nickel contracts, the greatest across base metals. As the KDJ indicators expanded downwards and the MACD green line lengthened, the contract is likely to test support at 98,000 yuan/mt tonight. 

Lead: The most-liquid SHFE June contract hovered below the daily moving average, or the 16,390 yuan/mt level, with an intraday low of 16,340 yuan/mt. Declines in the five-day moving average slowed. Three-month LME lead also traded at lows today. Weak demand and supply may keep the contract trading rangebound at current levels tonight. Pressure is expected at 16,500 yuan/mt. 

Tin: A higher US dollar and pressure from the five-day moving average lowered the most-active SHFE September contract, from a high of 148,800 yuan/mt to an intraday low of 148,030 yuan/mt near closing. It ended at 148,090 yuan/mt, with open interests up 1,162 lots to 28,658 lots. We expect it to trade with support at 147,500 yuan/mt and resistance at 149,500 yuan/mt tonight. 

Price

more
1# Silver ingots(99.99%)
May.23
3491.0
2.0
(0.06%)
2# Silver ingots(99.95%)
May.23
3476.0
2.0
(0.06%)
3# Silver ingots(99.90%)
May.23
3461.0
2.0
(0.06%)
Gold(99.99%)
May.23
286.5
0.4
(0.13%)
Gold(99.95%)
May.23
286.5
0.5
(0.16%)

SMM Evening Comments (Apr 18)

Price Review & Forecast 05:40:40PM Apr 18, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Apr 18 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals, except for aluminium, declined across the board as nickel led the losses and ended 2.44% lower. Zinc slid 1.33%, lead lost 0.61%, tin fell 0.38%, and copper declined 0.08%. 

The ferrous complex also dropped as hot-rolled coil went down 1.35%, and coke and rebar closed 1.88% lower. 

Copper: Limited upward momentum prevented the most-active SHFE June contract from exceeding 49,670 yuan/mt in early trades. The contract dipped to an intraday low of 49,480 yuan/mt before it closed at 49,500 yuan/mt. Open interests lost 1,096 lots to 190,000 lots as longs exited. Some 95.88 million yuan of capital left all SHFE copper contracts, topping base metals. Weak manufacturing data in Germany and bearish signs from the KDJ indicators are likely to see the contract testing support at 49,500 yuan/mt tonight. 

Aluminium: Lower inventories of primary aluminium and aluminium billet across social warehouses bolstered the most-active SHFE June contract, while the other base metals slid. Longs pulled the contract to a high of 14,110 yuan/mt in the afternoon, before it closed at 14,055 yuan/mt. Open interests expanded 39,364 lots to 273,000 lots. Potential resumption of suspended capacity is expected to limit the upward room in the contract in the near term. The June contract is likely to trade at 14,000-14,100 yuan/mt tonight. 

Zinc: As LME zinc inventories continued to expand, the most-traded SHFE June contract fell below support at 21,500 yuan/mt, and dropped to a low of 21,490 yuan/mt. With support at the 60-day moving average, it closed at 21,535 yuan/mt. Accumulated shorts grew open interests by 18,200 lots to 287,000 lots. The market expected higher supplies at the end of April, and this limited upward momentum in prices. Tonight, the contract is expected to hover around the 60-day moving average. 

Nickel: The most-liquid SHFE June contract led the losses among base metals as shorts depressed it below the 60-day moving average, to a low of 98,700 yuan/mt, close to the 120-day moving average. It ended 2.44% lower on the day at 98,840 yuan/mt. Some 541 million yuan of capital flew into all SHFE nickel contracts, the greatest across base metals. As the KDJ indicators expanded downwards and the MACD green line lengthened, the contract is likely to test support at 98,000 yuan/mt tonight. 

Lead: The most-liquid SHFE June contract hovered below the daily moving average, or the 16,390 yuan/mt level, with an intraday low of 16,340 yuan/mt. Declines in the five-day moving average slowed. Three-month LME lead also traded at lows today. Weak demand and supply may keep the contract trading rangebound at current levels tonight. Pressure is expected at 16,500 yuan/mt. 

Tin: A higher US dollar and pressure from the five-day moving average lowered the most-active SHFE September contract, from a high of 148,800 yuan/mt to an intraday low of 148,030 yuan/mt near closing. It ended at 148,090 yuan/mt, with open interests up 1,162 lots to 28,658 lots. We expect it to trade with support at 147,500 yuan/mt and resistance at 149,500 yuan/mt tonight.