SMM Aluminium Summit: Trade barriers, weaker demand to hurt aluminium exports in 2019

BINZHOU, Apr 12 (SMM) – China’s aluminium exports this year are likely to be affected by trade barriers, a higher SHFE/LME price ratio, anti-dumping and countervailing probes and weaker external demand, said Liu Xiaolei, senior aluminium analyst from SMM at the SMM Aluminium Summit on Friday April 12 in Binzhou, Shandong province.

China exported 343,000 mt of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products in February, down 209,000 mt January, according SMM data. The impact of Chinese New Year attributed for the sharp decline in aluminium exports in February. 

Liu expects domestic aluminium prices to trade under pressure in the first half of 2019. SHFE aluminium is likely to trade at 13,300-14,300 yuan/mt, with LME aluminium at $1,800-2,000/mt.

Prices are likely to rebound in the second half of the year. SHFE aluminium is likely to climb to 13,500-14,500 yuan/mt and LME aluminium to $1,850-2,050/mt.