SMM Morning Comments (Apr 12)-Shanghai Metals Market

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SMM Morning Comments (Apr 12)

Price Review & Forecast 09:38:25AM Apr 12, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Apr 12 (SMM) –

Copper: With pressure from a stronger US dollar, three-month LME copper fell close to 0.9% to end at $6,404.5/mt on Thursday. Losses in LME copper drove shorts in Shanghai to add positions, dragging the SHFE June contract to a low of 48,990 yuan/mt overnight. LME and SHFE copper have lost support from all short-term moving averages, except for the 60-day one. Copper prices are expected to hold onto their current ground with the potential for a rally today. LME copper is expected to trade at $6,400-6,440/mt today with SHFE copper at 48,990-49,300 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen higher at 40-160 yuan/mt as overnight sharp losses in prices of futures and the upcoming weekend will fuel purchasing interest and prompt sellers to hold offers firm.

Aluminium: Impacted by the stronger greenback, three-month LME aluminium fell to a one-month low of $1,854/mt before it recovered some losses to end 0.4% lower at $1,859/mt, below all moving averages, on Thursday. LME aluminium is expected to trade at $1,850-1,880/mt today. The most traded SHFE May contract traded ranegbound to end marginally lower at 13,820 yuan/mt overnight. It is expected to trade at 13,790-13,860 yuan/mt today with spot premiums of up to 20 yuan/mt.

Zinc: Extended declines in LME zinc inventories bolstered three-month LME zinc to an intraday high of $2,907.5/mt before stronger US dollar forced it to relinquish those gains to end 0.24% lower at $2,871/mt on Thursday. LME zinc failed to move out of the range among moving averages and is expected to stay in the range today with most transactions at $2,850-2,895/mt if there are no positive developments from fundamentals or macro economy. Earlier gains in LME zinc boosted the most active SHFE June contract to open higher overnight. As its LME counterpart weakened, SHFE zinc came off from earlier highs to end lower at 22,335 yuan/mt. The five-day moving average expanded downwards, suggesting cooling bullish sentiment. SHFE zinc is expected to trade between the 10- and 20-day moving averages today with a range of 22,150-22,600 yuan/mt.

Nickel: Three-month LME nickel dropped past the 20- and 40-day moving averages to a low of $12,865/mt overnight before it ended 1.6% lower at $12,970/mt. As shorts aggressively loaded up positions, the most traded SHFE June contract lost support from 20- and 40-day moving averages to a low of 100,640 yuan/mt before it closed 2% lower at 100,960 yuan/mt. LME nickel is expected to slightly extend its declines today with most transactions at $12,850-13,050/mt. SHFE nickel is expected to trade at 100,000-102,000 yuan/mt with spot prices at 100,500-102,500 yuan/mt.

Lead: As the US dollar strengthened, three-month LME lead tumbled to a 4-1/2-month low of $1,918/mt on Thursday before it ended the trading day 1.5% lower at $1,923.5/mt. The acceleration of declines in LME lead was mainly due to the buildup of short positions. LME lead might rally from significant declines after the market prices in the bearish sentiment, and SMM sees limited further downside room in LME lead. With weakness in its LME counterpart, the most active SHFE May contract dropped to close at a nearly two-year low of 16,260 yuan/mt overnight. SHFE lead extended its declines as the market continued to digest bearish sentiment, but it might stem recent declines in the short run, or even rally, with signs that some investors begin to take profits.

Tin: Three-month LME tin sank to a 12-week low of $20,490/mt on Thursday before it pared some losses to end close to 1% lower at $20,635/mt, standing below all moving averages. Support is seen at $20,500/mt while resistance is at $21,000/mt. The most liquid SHFE May contract extended its losses overnight, ending at 146,610 yuan/mt. Resistance is seen at 147,500 yuan/mt while support is at 146,000 yuan/mt.

Key Words:  Morning comments   Copper   Aluminium   Zinc   Lead   Nickel   Tin 

Price

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#1 Refined Cu
Apr.19
49430.0
-170.0
(-0.34%)
Yangshan Copper Premium(Bill of Lading)
Apr.19
51.5
0.0
(0.00%)
Yangshan Copper Premium(Warehouse Warrant)
Apr.19
50.5
0.0
(0.00%)
Imported Cu Concentrate TC(Cu≥26%,Week)
Apr.19
67.0
-1.5
(-2.19%)
Imported Cu Concentrate TC(Cu≥26%,Month)
Mar.29
73.5
-6.0
(-7.55%)

SMM Morning Comments (Apr 12)

Price Review & Forecast 09:38:25AM Apr 12, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Apr 12 (SMM) –

Copper: With pressure from a stronger US dollar, three-month LME copper fell close to 0.9% to end at $6,404.5/mt on Thursday. Losses in LME copper drove shorts in Shanghai to add positions, dragging the SHFE June contract to a low of 48,990 yuan/mt overnight. LME and SHFE copper have lost support from all short-term moving averages, except for the 60-day one. Copper prices are expected to hold onto their current ground with the potential for a rally today. LME copper is expected to trade at $6,400-6,440/mt today with SHFE copper at 48,990-49,300 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen higher at 40-160 yuan/mt as overnight sharp losses in prices of futures and the upcoming weekend will fuel purchasing interest and prompt sellers to hold offers firm.

Aluminium: Impacted by the stronger greenback, three-month LME aluminium fell to a one-month low of $1,854/mt before it recovered some losses to end 0.4% lower at $1,859/mt, below all moving averages, on Thursday. LME aluminium is expected to trade at $1,850-1,880/mt today. The most traded SHFE May contract traded ranegbound to end marginally lower at 13,820 yuan/mt overnight. It is expected to trade at 13,790-13,860 yuan/mt today with spot premiums of up to 20 yuan/mt.

Zinc: Extended declines in LME zinc inventories bolstered three-month LME zinc to an intraday high of $2,907.5/mt before stronger US dollar forced it to relinquish those gains to end 0.24% lower at $2,871/mt on Thursday. LME zinc failed to move out of the range among moving averages and is expected to stay in the range today with most transactions at $2,850-2,895/mt if there are no positive developments from fundamentals or macro economy. Earlier gains in LME zinc boosted the most active SHFE June contract to open higher overnight. As its LME counterpart weakened, SHFE zinc came off from earlier highs to end lower at 22,335 yuan/mt. The five-day moving average expanded downwards, suggesting cooling bullish sentiment. SHFE zinc is expected to trade between the 10- and 20-day moving averages today with a range of 22,150-22,600 yuan/mt.

Nickel: Three-month LME nickel dropped past the 20- and 40-day moving averages to a low of $12,865/mt overnight before it ended 1.6% lower at $12,970/mt. As shorts aggressively loaded up positions, the most traded SHFE June contract lost support from 20- and 40-day moving averages to a low of 100,640 yuan/mt before it closed 2% lower at 100,960 yuan/mt. LME nickel is expected to slightly extend its declines today with most transactions at $12,850-13,050/mt. SHFE nickel is expected to trade at 100,000-102,000 yuan/mt with spot prices at 100,500-102,500 yuan/mt.

Lead: As the US dollar strengthened, three-month LME lead tumbled to a 4-1/2-month low of $1,918/mt on Thursday before it ended the trading day 1.5% lower at $1,923.5/mt. The acceleration of declines in LME lead was mainly due to the buildup of short positions. LME lead might rally from significant declines after the market prices in the bearish sentiment, and SMM sees limited further downside room in LME lead. With weakness in its LME counterpart, the most active SHFE May contract dropped to close at a nearly two-year low of 16,260 yuan/mt overnight. SHFE lead extended its declines as the market continued to digest bearish sentiment, but it might stem recent declines in the short run, or even rally, with signs that some investors begin to take profits.

Tin: Three-month LME tin sank to a 12-week low of $20,490/mt on Thursday before it pared some losses to end close to 1% lower at $20,635/mt, standing below all moving averages. Support is seen at $20,500/mt while resistance is at $21,000/mt. The most liquid SHFE May contract extended its losses overnight, ending at 146,610 yuan/mt. Resistance is seen at 147,500 yuan/mt while support is at 146,000 yuan/mt.

Key Words:  Morning comments   Copper   Aluminium   Zinc   Lead   Nickel   Tin