Macro Roundup (Apr 10)

SHANGHAI, Apr 10 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

LME base metals traded mixed on Tuesday. Zinc dropped close to 1.6%, and lead fell 0.4% while copper nudged up 0.02%, tin gained 0.2%, nickel and aluminium rose 0.3%.

SHFE base metals also saw mixed performances overnight. Zinc slid 0.9%, lead declined close to 0.7%, tin lost 0.2%, and copper inched down 0.06% while nickel and aluminium advanced some 0.3%.

The US dollar index fell on Tuesday after the International Monetary Fund downgraded its outlook on the global economy.

The IMF on Tuesday cut its global growth forecasts for 2019 to 3.3%, the slowest expansion since 2016 and from its earlier projection of 3.5% in January.

US-Europe trade tension troubled the markets. The European Union said it is preparing retaliatory tariffs against the US subsidies to Boeing, hours after Washington vowed to hit the EU with duties over its support for Airbus.

Earlier this week, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer proposed a list of EU products ranging from large commercial aircraft and parts to dairy products and wine, on which to impose tariffs as retaliation for European aircraft subsidies.

These factors, together with Russian comments that signalled the possible easing of a supply-cutting deal with OPEC, triggered a retreat from earlier highs in oil prices on Tuesday.

US job openings, a measure of labour demand, tumbled by 538,000 to a seasonally adjusted dropped 7.1 million, the Labor Department said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), on Tuesday. That was the lowest since March 2018 and reflected declines in several industries.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday reported an increase of 4.09 million barrels in US crude oil inventories for the week ending April 5, beating expectations of a buildup of 2.51 million barrels.

In the week ending March 29, API reported a surprise increase of 2.96 million barrels of crude oil inventories, while the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a buildup of 7.2 million barrels of crude oil inventories for the week.

The API also reported a draw in gasoline inventories for week ending April 5 in the amount of 7.1 million barrels, compared to the forecasts of a much smaller draw of 2.12 million barrels.

Day ahead

China will release its total social financing (TSF) and M2 money supply for March while the US will release consumer price index (CPI) for March and weekly EIA crude oil inventory data.

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy decision and minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s March meeting are also due on Wednesday.