SMM Morning Comments (Apr 9)-Shanghai Metals Market

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SMM Morning Comments (Apr 9)

Price Review & Forecast 09:47:58AM Apr 09, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Apr 9 (SMM) –

Copper: As the US dollar declined and crude oil prices continued to climb, three-month LME copper climbed 1.4% to close at $6,486/mt on Monday. Gains in LME copper prompted shorts in Shanghai to cover positions, and bolstered the most active SHFE May contract a high of 49,560 yuan/mt overnight. SHFE copper pared some earlier gains to end 0.28% higher at 49,410 yuan/mt. Limited upward momentum is expected to keep SHFE copper rangebound at highs today. LME copper is expected to trade at $6,450-6,500/mt with SHFE copper at 49,200-49,700 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen up to 130 yuan/mt.

Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium fell from earlier highs to $1,866/mt, its lowest in close to four weeks, on Monday and ended 0.5% lower at $1,873/mt. US dollar index remained above 97. LME aluminium is expected to trade at $1,860-1,890/mt today. The most traded SHFE May contract fluctuated to end 0.33% lower at 13,775 yuan/mt overnight. It is expected to trade at 13,770-13,850 yuan/mt today with spot premiums of up to 30 yuan/mt.

Zinc: The three-month LME zinc on Monday came off from a high of $2,935/mt to a low of $2,881/mt, following the report of a 1,450-mt increase in LME zinc inventories. It rebounded after the US dollar weakened, and ended the trading day 0.72% lower at $2,899/mt. LME zinc is expected to edge down to $2,870-2,920/mt today as current low inventories and yesterday's gains in stocks keep traders cautious. The most active SHFE May contract pared earlier gains to end overnight lower at 22,850 yuan/mt. High profits will likely drive idle capacity to resume. The SHFE 1905 contract is expected to trade at 22,650-23,100 yuan/mt today as inventories remain at highs and as bullish sentiment weaken.

Nickel: As LME nickel inventories fell below 180,000 mt and the US dollar declined, the three-month LME nickel rose to an intraday high of $13,325/mt on Monday before it pared some gains to close the trading day over 1% higher at $13,200/mt. The most traded SHFE May contract came off from a high of 103,780 yuan/mt, bolstered by a weaker greenback, to end marginally higher at 103,080 yuan/mt overnight. LME nickel is expected to trade rangebound between $13,100-13,300/mt today. SHFE nickel is expected to trade at 102,000-104,000 yuan/mt with spot prices at 103,000-105,000 yuan/mt.

Lead: Three-month LME lead rapidly climbed a high of $2,003.5/mt before it pared some gains to end 0.2% higher at $1,991/mt on Monday. Despite gains on Monday, LME lead did not stem its downward trend. Strength in the US dollar is likely to continue to weigh on LME lead in the near term, which is expected to trade at $1,985-2,005/mt today. Dragged by a weak LME counterpart, the most active SHFE May contract finished overnight 0.12% lower at 16,850 yuan/mt. SHFE lead remained rangebound at lows and is expected to trade at 16,800-16,900 yuan/mt today. Spot prices in Shanghai are seen at 16,850-16,900 yuan/mt.

Tin: Three-month LME tin edged down to end at $20,835/mt on Monday. It is expected to remain rangebound in the short run with support at $20,500/mt and resistance at $21,000/mt. The most liquid SHFE May contract dipped to end at 148,210 yuan/mt overnight. Resistance was at 149,000 yuan/mt while support was at 147,500 yuan/mt.

Key Words:  Morning comments   Copper   Aluminium   Zinc   Lead   Nickel   Tin 

SMM Morning Comments (Apr 9)

Price Review & Forecast 09:47:58AM Apr 09, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Apr 9 (SMM) –

Copper: As the US dollar declined and crude oil prices continued to climb, three-month LME copper climbed 1.4% to close at $6,486/mt on Monday. Gains in LME copper prompted shorts in Shanghai to cover positions, and bolstered the most active SHFE May contract a high of 49,560 yuan/mt overnight. SHFE copper pared some earlier gains to end 0.28% higher at 49,410 yuan/mt. Limited upward momentum is expected to keep SHFE copper rangebound at highs today. LME copper is expected to trade at $6,450-6,500/mt with SHFE copper at 49,200-49,700 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen up to 130 yuan/mt.

Aluminium: Three-month LME aluminium fell from earlier highs to $1,866/mt, its lowest in close to four weeks, on Monday and ended 0.5% lower at $1,873/mt. US dollar index remained above 97. LME aluminium is expected to trade at $1,860-1,890/mt today. The most traded SHFE May contract fluctuated to end 0.33% lower at 13,775 yuan/mt overnight. It is expected to trade at 13,770-13,850 yuan/mt today with spot premiums of up to 30 yuan/mt.

Zinc: The three-month LME zinc on Monday came off from a high of $2,935/mt to a low of $2,881/mt, following the report of a 1,450-mt increase in LME zinc inventories. It rebounded after the US dollar weakened, and ended the trading day 0.72% lower at $2,899/mt. LME zinc is expected to edge down to $2,870-2,920/mt today as current low inventories and yesterday's gains in stocks keep traders cautious. The most active SHFE May contract pared earlier gains to end overnight lower at 22,850 yuan/mt. High profits will likely drive idle capacity to resume. The SHFE 1905 contract is expected to trade at 22,650-23,100 yuan/mt today as inventories remain at highs and as bullish sentiment weaken.

Nickel: As LME nickel inventories fell below 180,000 mt and the US dollar declined, the three-month LME nickel rose to an intraday high of $13,325/mt on Monday before it pared some gains to close the trading day over 1% higher at $13,200/mt. The most traded SHFE May contract came off from a high of 103,780 yuan/mt, bolstered by a weaker greenback, to end marginally higher at 103,080 yuan/mt overnight. LME nickel is expected to trade rangebound between $13,100-13,300/mt today. SHFE nickel is expected to trade at 102,000-104,000 yuan/mt with spot prices at 103,000-105,000 yuan/mt.

Lead: Three-month LME lead rapidly climbed a high of $2,003.5/mt before it pared some gains to end 0.2% higher at $1,991/mt on Monday. Despite gains on Monday, LME lead did not stem its downward trend. Strength in the US dollar is likely to continue to weigh on LME lead in the near term, which is expected to trade at $1,985-2,005/mt today. Dragged by a weak LME counterpart, the most active SHFE May contract finished overnight 0.12% lower at 16,850 yuan/mt. SHFE lead remained rangebound at lows and is expected to trade at 16,800-16,900 yuan/mt today. Spot prices in Shanghai are seen at 16,850-16,900 yuan/mt.

Tin: Three-month LME tin edged down to end at $20,835/mt on Monday. It is expected to remain rangebound in the short run with support at $20,500/mt and resistance at $21,000/mt. The most liquid SHFE May contract dipped to end at 148,210 yuan/mt overnight. Resistance was at 149,000 yuan/mt while support was at 147,500 yuan/mt.

Key Words:  Morning comments   Copper   Aluminium   Zinc   Lead   Nickel   Tin