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Macro Roundup (Apr 2)

Data Analysis 08:50:12AM Apr 02, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Apr 2 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

LME base metals closed mixed on Monday. Nickel rose over 0.9%, tin nudged up nearly 0.1%, while copper and nickel lost some 0.2%, zinc fell some 0.6% and aluminium dropped close to 1%.

SHFE base metals, except for nickel, traded lower overnight. Zinc declined close to 0.6%, copper, lead and aluminium slid 0.3% and tin dipped 0.06%.

The US dollar index rose on Monday as stronger-than-expected US manufacturing data offset sluggish retail sales.

US manufacturing rebounded more than expected in March, according to an industry report released on Monday, as production, new orders and employment all picked up.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that its index of national factory activity rose to 55.3 from 54.2 in February, the lowest level since November 2016. The reading stood above expectations of 54.5 from a Reuters poll of 69 economists.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

IHS Markit, however, said its final purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for US manufacturing sector dipped to 52.4 in March, down from 53 in February. March’s reading was "broadly in line with" the flash figure of 52.5.

"A futher deterioraton in the manufacturing PMI suggests the factory sector is acting as an increasing drag on the US economy. The March survey is consistent with production falling at a quarterly rate of 0.6% according to historical comparisons with official data," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

Separate data from the Commerce Department on Monday showed that US retail sales dropped 0.2% in February, missing the forecasts of an increase of 0.3% in February as households lowered purchases of furniture, clothing, food and electronics and appliances, as well as building materials and gardening equipment. 

The pound dropped this morning as the British parliament failed again to find a majority of its own for any alternative to Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal.

In China, the Caixin manufacturing PMI jumped to 50.8 in March, the highest level in eight months and beating economists' expectations of 49.9.

"Overall, with a more relaxed financing environment, government efforts to bail out the private sector and positive progress in Sino-US trade talks, the situation across the manufacturing sector recovered in March," said Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, a subsidiary of Caixin.

In the eurozone, factories saw their worst month for almost six years in March, a Markit survey found. March manufacturing PMI for the bloc declined for an eighth month, coming in at 47.5, the lowest reading since April 2013.

Headline inflation in the euro area slowed to 1.4% in March from 1.5% a month earlier, short of market expectations for a steady rate and also well below the ECB’s target of almost 2%.

Eurostat data on Monday showed separately that unemployment remained unchanged at 7.8% of the workforce in February against January.

Germany’s Markit PMI for manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of the economy, fell to an 80-month low of 44.1 in March, down from 47.6 in February and lower than the flash reading of 44.7.

Day ahead

The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to announce its monetary policy decision today, while the US will release durable goods orders for February.

Key Words:  Macroeconomics  

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Macro Roundup (Apr 2)

Data Analysis 08:50:12AM Apr 02, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Apr 2 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

LME base metals closed mixed on Monday. Nickel rose over 0.9%, tin nudged up nearly 0.1%, while copper and nickel lost some 0.2%, zinc fell some 0.6% and aluminium dropped close to 1%.

SHFE base metals, except for nickel, traded lower overnight. Zinc declined close to 0.6%, copper, lead and aluminium slid 0.3% and tin dipped 0.06%.

The US dollar index rose on Monday as stronger-than-expected US manufacturing data offset sluggish retail sales.

US manufacturing rebounded more than expected in March, according to an industry report released on Monday, as production, new orders and employment all picked up.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that its index of national factory activity rose to 55.3 from 54.2 in February, the lowest level since November 2016. The reading stood above expectations of 54.5 from a Reuters poll of 69 economists.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

IHS Markit, however, said its final purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for US manufacturing sector dipped to 52.4 in March, down from 53 in February. March’s reading was "broadly in line with" the flash figure of 52.5.

"A futher deterioraton in the manufacturing PMI suggests the factory sector is acting as an increasing drag on the US economy. The March survey is consistent with production falling at a quarterly rate of 0.6% according to historical comparisons with official data," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

Separate data from the Commerce Department on Monday showed that US retail sales dropped 0.2% in February, missing the forecasts of an increase of 0.3% in February as households lowered purchases of furniture, clothing, food and electronics and appliances, as well as building materials and gardening equipment. 

The pound dropped this morning as the British parliament failed again to find a majority of its own for any alternative to Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal.

In China, the Caixin manufacturing PMI jumped to 50.8 in March, the highest level in eight months and beating economists' expectations of 49.9.

"Overall, with a more relaxed financing environment, government efforts to bail out the private sector and positive progress in Sino-US trade talks, the situation across the manufacturing sector recovered in March," said Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, a subsidiary of Caixin.

In the eurozone, factories saw their worst month for almost six years in March, a Markit survey found. March manufacturing PMI for the bloc declined for an eighth month, coming in at 47.5, the lowest reading since April 2013.

Headline inflation in the euro area slowed to 1.4% in March from 1.5% a month earlier, short of market expectations for a steady rate and also well below the ECB’s target of almost 2%.

Eurostat data on Monday showed separately that unemployment remained unchanged at 7.8% of the workforce in February against January.

Germany’s Markit PMI for manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of the economy, fell to an 80-month low of 44.1 in March, down from 47.6 in February and lower than the flash reading of 44.7.

Day ahead

The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to announce its monetary policy decision today, while the US will release durable goods orders for February.

Key Words:  Macroeconomics