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SMM Morning Comments (Mar 28)
Mar 28,2019 09:28CST
price review forecast
Source:SMM
SMM Morning Comments

SHANGHAI, Mar 28 (SMM) –

Copper: As shorts loaded up their positions, the three-month LME copper dropped to an intraday low of $6,302.5/mt on Wednesday before it rebounded to end at $6,336/mt. The most active SHFE May contract fell to a low of 48,160 yuan/mt overnight before it recovered those losses to finish at 48,420 yuan/mt. US crude oil prices fell overnight due to an unexpected weekly increase in US inventories. But overall strength in oil prices helped LME copper hang on above the lower Bollinger band. LME copper is expected to trade at $6,325-6,370/mt today with its SHFE counterpart at 48,200-48,650 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 960-1,100 yuan/mt.

Aluminium: The three-month LME aluminium rose to an intraday high of $1,919.5/mt on Wednesday before it pared some gains to end marginally higher at $1,903/mt. The market appeared to have been minimally affected by the Norsk Hydro’s announcement that it reached an agreement with Brazil’s federal prosecutor for a full, potential restart at Alunorte. LME aluminium is expected to trade at $1,870-1,920/mt today. As shorts cut their positions, the most traded SHFE May contract climbed to a high of 13,730 yuan/mt overnight before long-covering weighed it to close at 13,690 yuan/mt. With support at the 20-day moving average, the May contract is expected to trade at 13,550-13,800 yuan/mt today with spot premiums of 250-290 yuan/mt over the April contract.

Zinc: The three-month LME zinc fluctuated to end Wednesday 0.24% higher at $2,885.5/mt. It remained above all moving averages. It is expected to trade at $2,855-2,900/mt today. As investors aggressively loaded up their long bets, the most active SHFE May contract rose to the highest so far this year at 22,615 yuan/mt overnight before it ended at 22,535 yuan/mt. The buying enthusiasm is likely to temporarily cool today with the contract trading at 22,200-22,700 yuan/mt.

Nickel: The three-month LME nickel rebounded from an intraday low of $12,880/mt to end Wednesday trading at $13,050/mt. The most liquid SHFE May contract tumbled to a low of 99,650 yuan/mt overnight before it recovered those losses to close at 101,260 yuan/mt. LME nickel is expected to trade at $13,000-13,200/mt today with its SHFE counterpart at 100,000-102,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 103,500-105,500 yuan/mt.

Lead: The three-month LME lead fell to a low of two and a half months, to $1,985.5/mt on Wednesday before institutional investors regained those losses to end at an intraday high of $2,020/mt, up 1.15% on the day. This suggested eased selling sentiment. LME lead is expected to trade rangebound in the short run. Following the rebound in LME lead, the most traded SHFE May contract rallied from a low of 16,755 yuan/mt to close at 16,835 yuan/mt overnight. SHFE lead has hovered at lows for eight consecutive trading days with longs betting on technical support while shorts betting on the anticipation of weaker fundamentals.

Tin: The three-month LME tin traded rangebound to end the trading day slightly lower at $21,380/mt on Wednesday. Resistance was at the five-day moving average while support at the 10-day average. Low inventories are likely to keep LME tin at highs in the short term with resistance at $21,600/mt. The most liquid SHFE May contract fell to a two-week low of 146,380 yuan/mt overnight before it pared some losses to end at 146,620 yuan/mt. It continued to hover at lows overnight with support at 146,000 yuan/mt.

Morning comments
Copper
Aluminium
Zinc
Lead
Nickel
Tin

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