SMM Morning Comments (Mar 19)-Shanghai Metals Market

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SMM Morning Comments (Mar 19)

Price Review & Forecast 09:29:46AM Mar 19, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Mar 19 (SMM) – 

Copper: Lower inventories of copper across COMEX and LME warehouses lifted LME copper, to a high of $6,477.5/mt during the European trading session. The SHFE 1905 contract declined after opened at highs, as shorts entered. It ended at 49,160 yuan/mt after fell to the lowest overnight at 49,130 yuan/mt. Open interests grew 5,828 lots to 628,000 lots. As its KDJ indicators expanded upwards, the MACD green line shortened, and the crude oil prices remained robust, the contract may test pressure above and trade at 49,100-49,600 yuan/mt today, with its LME counterpart at $6,420-6,490/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 800-1,000 yuan/mt. 

Aluminium: As shorts exited, LME aluminium rebounded from a low of $1,880.5/mt and jumped to the highest since February 18, at $1,928.5/mt. It may trade at $1,860-1,940/mt today. The SHFE 1905 contract also rose to the highest overnight at 13,680 yuan/mt with leaving shorts, before closed at 13,665 yuan/mt. Domestic consumption remained tepid, and this may see the contract at 13,500-13,800 yuan/mt today. Spot premiums are set at 180-220 yuan/mt. 

Zinc: Lower inventories of LME zinc grew upward momentum in prices, which climbed to a high of $2,796/mt. However, LME zinc failed to break heavy pressure above, and closed at $2,774/mt after dropped to a low of $2,762/mt. Today, it is likely to trade around the 10-day moving average, at $2,750-2,800/mt. The SHFE 1905 contract registered the third consecutive trading day of decline and fell below the 20-day moving average, as shorts entered and pressure from the five-day moving average remained. It is likely to trade at 21,300-21,800 yuan/mt today. 

Nickel: LME nickel broke resistance at $13,000/mt and jumped to a high of $13,065/mt as the US dollar weakened. This came after it rebounded from a low of $12,835/mt and found support at $12,850/mt. LME nickel inventories continued to shrink by 492 mt to 190,848 mt. The SHFE 1905 contract also strengthened with support from higher prices of crude oil and a weaker greenback. Pressure from the five-day moving average ended it at 100,810 yuan/mt, after it rose to a high of 101,330 yuan/mt. Today, the contract is likely to trade at 99,500-101,500 yuan/mt, with LME nickel at $12,900-13,100/mt. Spot prices are seen at 102,500-104,500 yuan/mt. 

Lead: LME lead failed to receive support from the 60-day moving average, as it dipped to a low of $2,023.5/mt, and ended at $2,034.5/mt. Bearish sentiment in the market is likely to see it testing support at $2,000/mt today. The SHFE 1905 contract outperformed its LME counterpart, and showed signs of slower decline. It settled at 16,885 yuan/mt after increased to a high of 16,945 yuan/mt. We expect it to test pressure above today. 

Tin: LME tin traded around the $21,140/mt level overnight, with support at $21,000/mt. It will continue to test support at $21,000/mt, or at $20,700/mt today, The SHFE 1905 contract nudged up as shorts left, but its upward momentum was limited. We expect it to test support at 146,000 yuan/mt today. 

Price

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1# Silver ingots(99.99%)
Jun.19
3574.0
3.0
(0.08%)
2# Silver ingots(99.95%)
Jun.19
3559.0
3.0
(0.08%)
3# Silver ingots(99.90%)
Jun.19
3544.0
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(0.08%)
Gold(99.99%)
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302.6
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(0.08%)
Gold(99.95%)
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301.9
-0.4
(-0.13%)

SMM Morning Comments (Mar 19)

Price Review & Forecast 09:29:46AM Mar 19, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Mar 19 (SMM) – 

Copper: Lower inventories of copper across COMEX and LME warehouses lifted LME copper, to a high of $6,477.5/mt during the European trading session. The SHFE 1905 contract declined after opened at highs, as shorts entered. It ended at 49,160 yuan/mt after fell to the lowest overnight at 49,130 yuan/mt. Open interests grew 5,828 lots to 628,000 lots. As its KDJ indicators expanded upwards, the MACD green line shortened, and the crude oil prices remained robust, the contract may test pressure above and trade at 49,100-49,600 yuan/mt today, with its LME counterpart at $6,420-6,490/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 800-1,000 yuan/mt. 

Aluminium: As shorts exited, LME aluminium rebounded from a low of $1,880.5/mt and jumped to the highest since February 18, at $1,928.5/mt. It may trade at $1,860-1,940/mt today. The SHFE 1905 contract also rose to the highest overnight at 13,680 yuan/mt with leaving shorts, before closed at 13,665 yuan/mt. Domestic consumption remained tepid, and this may see the contract at 13,500-13,800 yuan/mt today. Spot premiums are set at 180-220 yuan/mt. 

Zinc: Lower inventories of LME zinc grew upward momentum in prices, which climbed to a high of $2,796/mt. However, LME zinc failed to break heavy pressure above, and closed at $2,774/mt after dropped to a low of $2,762/mt. Today, it is likely to trade around the 10-day moving average, at $2,750-2,800/mt. The SHFE 1905 contract registered the third consecutive trading day of decline and fell below the 20-day moving average, as shorts entered and pressure from the five-day moving average remained. It is likely to trade at 21,300-21,800 yuan/mt today. 

Nickel: LME nickel broke resistance at $13,000/mt and jumped to a high of $13,065/mt as the US dollar weakened. This came after it rebounded from a low of $12,835/mt and found support at $12,850/mt. LME nickel inventories continued to shrink by 492 mt to 190,848 mt. The SHFE 1905 contract also strengthened with support from higher prices of crude oil and a weaker greenback. Pressure from the five-day moving average ended it at 100,810 yuan/mt, after it rose to a high of 101,330 yuan/mt. Today, the contract is likely to trade at 99,500-101,500 yuan/mt, with LME nickel at $12,900-13,100/mt. Spot prices are seen at 102,500-104,500 yuan/mt. 

Lead: LME lead failed to receive support from the 60-day moving average, as it dipped to a low of $2,023.5/mt, and ended at $2,034.5/mt. Bearish sentiment in the market is likely to see it testing support at $2,000/mt today. The SHFE 1905 contract outperformed its LME counterpart, and showed signs of slower decline. It settled at 16,885 yuan/mt after increased to a high of 16,945 yuan/mt. We expect it to test pressure above today. 

Tin: LME tin traded around the $21,140/mt level overnight, with support at $21,000/mt. It will continue to test support at $21,000/mt, or at $20,700/mt today, The SHFE 1905 contract nudged up as shorts left, but its upward momentum was limited. We expect it to test support at 146,000 yuan/mt today.