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SMM Evening Comments (Mar 18)
Mar 18,2019 17:09CST
price review forecast
SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, Mar 18 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals, except for copper, closed lower on Monday. Lead dropped more than 2%, zinc fell close to 1%, tin lost some 0.5%, nickel slipped 0.4% and aluminium sank 0.3%.

The ferrous complex traded mixed. Iron ore climbed 1.6%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.5% and rebar gained 0.4% while coking coal declined 0.9% and coke decreased by 1.1%.

Copper: The most traded SHFE copper May contract shrugged off resistance at the five- and 10-day moving averages and extended Fright night’s gains to end the trading day 0.8% higher at 49,350 yuan/mt. This helped it buck the decline across the Shanghai nonferrous complex. The contract is likely to test the 49,500 yuan/mt level tonight.

Aluminium: The most liquid SHFE aluminium May contract traded rangebound during the day and maintained Friday night’s losses. It lost 0.33% to close the trading day at 13,600 yuan/mt. Social inventories of primary aluminium as of Monday March 18 rose some 5,000 mt from a week ago, suggesting the slow pace of downstream recovery. This and further downside room in costs for primary aluminium production would likely keep aluminium prices rangebound. The contract is expected to continue to hover around moving averages tonight.

Zinc: The most active SHFE zinc May contract failed to recover from Friday night’s losses and finished the trading day close to 1% lower at 21,595 yuan/mt. It has fallen for two consecutive trading days, standing below the five-day moving average. Without significant macroeconomic developments, traders remain cautious and the contract is likely to hover in a tight range around the daily moving average tonight.

Nickel: The most active SHFE nickel May contract erased Friday night’s gains into negative territory during the day, falling 0.43% to end at 100,060 yuan/mt. It is expected to remain under the pressure from the five-day moving average tonight.

Lead: The SHFE 1904 lead contract extended Friday night’s decline during the day, losing 2.28% to end the trading day at the day-low of 16,910 yuan/mt. The May contract became the most liquid SHFE lead contract today. It also extended its losses to end at 16,880 yuan/mt, down 2.23% on the day. With pressure at several moving averages, the SHFE 1905 contract is unlikely to recover from today’s losses in the near term. It is expected to continue its decline tonight and test support at the 16,800 yuan/mt level in the short run.

Tin: After trading rangebound above the daily moving average on Friday night, the most traded SHFE tin May contract fell 0.47% on the day and ended at the day-low of 146,420 yuan/mt. It is likely to continue its declines in the short run with resistance at 148,000 yuan/mt and support at 146,000 yuan/mt.

Evening comments

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