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SMM Evening Comments (Mar 14)
Mar 14,2019 17:38CST
price review forecast
SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, Mar 14 (SMM) – SHFE base metals ended mixed on Thursday March 14. Aluminium rose 0.48%, zinc gained 0.32%, tin nudged up, while lead fell 0.92%, nickel lost 0.86%, and copper dipped 0.63%. 

The ferrous complex closed mostly lower as hot-rolled coil slid 1.25%, rebar declined 0.58%, coking coal edged down, while iron ore jumped 2.7%, and coke grew 0.6%. 

Copper: The SHFE 1905 contract fell below support from the five-day moving average and the Bollinger middle band, as shorts entered and LME copper weakened. It dipped to an intraday low of 49,070 yuan/mt, before it closed at 49,110 yuan/mt, with open interests up 3,912 lots to 238,000 lots. Tonight, it is expected to test support at the 49,000 yuan/mt level. 

Aluminium: An increase of nearly 2,000 lots of shorts in open interests depressed the SHFE 1905 contract to a low of 13,620 yuan/mt around noon. Support at the 13,600 yuan/mt level helped the contract rebound and close at 13,650 yuan/mt. The contract lost gains from overnight, but remained above all moving averages. As the KDJ indicators expanded upwards, it is likely to test support from the 60-day moving average tonight. 

Zinc: A robust LME zinc lifted the SHFE 1905 contract from a low of 21,730 yuan/mt in the afternoon, after exiting longs weighed the contract below the daily moving average. It ended at 22,205 yuan/mt, with open interests down 3,592 lots to 136,000 lots. Domestic inventories remained at highs with SHFE warrants accumulated by 11,600 mt today. However, the contract may receive continued support from its LME counterpart, and test the Bollinger upper band tonight. 

Nickel: Exiting longs lowered the SHFE 1905 contract below the daily moving average, to an intraday low of 100,840 yuan/mt around noon. It found support at 101,000 yuan/mt and rebounded to end at 101,490 yuan/mt. Open interests lost 1,688 lots to 256,000 lots. As the KDJ indicators expanded downwards and the MACD green line lengthened, the contract is likely to trade weakly, rangebound tonight. The 100,000 yuan/mt level will provide support.   

Lead: The SHFE 1904 contract declined sharply to an intraday low of 17,310 yuan/mt in early trades as investors added their shorts and cut longs. It ended at 17,325 yuan/mt, with open interests up 380 lots to 34,784 lots. As the five-day moving average showed greater weakness, the contract may test support at the 40-day moving average tonight. 

Tin: The SHFE 1905 contract extended its rangebound trend from overnight, and consolidated around 147,200 yuan/mt in the morning. This was before longs pulled it to a high of 147,680 yuan/mt, and ended it at 147,610 yuan/mt. The five-day moving average provided support today. The contract may continue to test pressure above at 148,500 yuan/mt, or the 60-day moving average tonight. 

Evening comments
Futures movement

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