Higher consumption, limited arrivals lower aluminium billet inventories

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Diesel prices in Vietnam have surged over 105% since late February, rising from 19,270 dong to 39,660 dong (US$1.50) per litre, while 95-octane petrol climbed nearly 68% to 33,840 dong following the outbreak of conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Soaring global oil prices have triggered supply concerns, prompting Vietnam to seek fuel support from Qatar, Kuwait, Algeria, and Japan, while also signing a new oil and gas cooperation deal with Russia.

[Geopolitical Disruptions Coupled With a Stronger US Dollar Put Aluminum Prices Under Pressure and Cause Volatility] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening capital liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum was insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. China’s social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle has yet to end, with high inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly suppressing upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and prices were mainly under pressure in the short term.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Rebound Drove Quotation Increases, While Weak Transactions Capped Gains] Spot side, yesterday the secondary aluminum alloy market was lifted by the futures rebound, with quotations edging up and mainstream gains at 100 yuan/mt. Some enterprises raised prices in line with the trend to recover earlier losses, and market sentiment improved slightly from the previous period. However, transactions remained weak, with downstream buyers mainly purchasing as needed and showing limited acceptance of high prices, constraining upside room for prices. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound, and further gains will still require substantive improvement on the demand side.