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SMM Evening Comments (Mar 6)
Mar 6,2019 17:27CST
price review forecast
SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, Mar 6 (SMM) – SHFE base metals closed mixed on Wednesday. Aluminium, tin and lead fell over 0.5% and copper slipped 0.3% while zinc nudged up 0.07% and nickel climbed 1.5%.

The ferrous complex traded lower. Hot-rolled coil tumbled 1.6%, rebar and coke dropped 1.2%, iron ore shed 1.1% and coking coal lost 0.78%.

Copper: Under the pressure from the daily moving average, the most active SHFE May contract traded rangebound between 49,350-49,490 yuan/mt during the day. The contract failed to pare overnight losses and ended the trading day 0.3% lower at 49,400 yuan/mt. SHFE copper prices performed relatively steady as the market adjusts to developments from the two political sessions. The SHFE 1905 contract is expected to try to hang on above the 49,300 yuan/mt level tonight.

Aluminium: As the newly announced value added tax cuts prompted longs to cover positions, the most liquid SHFE May contract fell during the day, ending 0.55% lower at 13,505 yuan/mt. In anticipation of consumption recovery, the contract is expected to try to recover some losses tonight.

Zinc: The most traded SHFE April contract weakened during the day, erasing overnight gains to close marginally higher at 21,955 yuan/mt. Its LME counterpart climbed during European trading hours, which might provide some support to SHFE zinc. The SHFE 1904 contract is expected to try to hang on above the 22,000 yuan/mt level tonight.

Nickel: The most liquid SHFE May contract hit a new five-month high of 106,460 yuan/mt in morning trade, bolstered by reports that a Brazilian court required Vale to suspend its Onca Puma nickel pig iron smelter before March 8. Vale’s financial report showed that the Onca Puma smelter produce some 25,000 mt of nickel per year in the past three years, accounting for about 1% of the total globally, indicating limited impact on global supply from its shutdown. The SHFE 1905 contract later pared some gains to finish the trading day 1.54% higher at 106,040 yuan/mt, as some longs took profits. The contract is expected to try to break through the range of 106,500-107,000 yuan/mt tonight.

Lead: With the weakening across the nonferrous complex in afternoon trade, the most traded SHFE April contract extended overnight losses to close at 17,525 yuan/mt, down 0.51% on the day. While SHFE lead still stayed at highs, the five-day moving average slowed its upward trend and longs covered close to 10,000 lots of positions in the past three days. The contract is expected to test support at 17,500 yuan/mt tonight.

Tin: The most active SHFE May contract fell for a fourth straight trading day to end at 148,480 yuan/mt, down 0.54% on the day. The day’s low of 148,330 yuan/mt, touched in early afternoon trade, was the lowest in about two and a half weeks. The unwinding of long positions accounted for the decline in the contract on the day.

Evening comments

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