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SMM Evening Comments (Feb 28)
Feb 28,2019 17:43CST
price review forecast
SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, Feb 28 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals and the ferrous complex closed mixed on Thursday February 28. Zinc and nickel rose more than 1%, copper nudged up, while zinc slid 0.3%, aluminium lost 0.22%, and tin edged down. 

Iron ore jumped over 2%, hot-rolled coil gained more than 1%, rebar increased 0.62%, while coke declined 0.45%, and coking coal fell 0.38%. 

Copper: The SHFE 1904 contract continued to face pressure from the Bollinger upper band and the daily moving average. It failed to break resistance at the daily moving average twice in the morning, and declined from noon to hit an intraday low of 50,110 yuan/mt near closing. A loss of 9,166 lots in open interests ended it at 50,160 yuan/mt. Open interests across all SHFE copper contracts dropped 5,954 lots to 672,000 lots, and shots accounted for most of the decline. As the MACD red line shortened, the 1904 contract is likely to test support at the 50,100 yuan/mt level tonight. 

Aluminium: Higher inventories of primary aluminium weighed the SHFE 1904 contract, which dropped to a low of 13,655 yuan/mt in the afternoon. It ended lower for the third consecutive trading day, at 13,680 yuan/mt. Open interests accumulated by 2,022 lots to 313,000 lots. As the MACD red line shortened, the contract is likely to trade rangebound, weakly tonight. 

Zinc: Inventory pressure did not ease, which reduced upward momentum in the SHFE 1904 contract today. Rising shorts accelerated the decline in the contact, and weighed it to an intraday low of 21,685 yuan/mt near noon. It closed at 21,745 yuan/mt with open interests down 3,920 lots to 229,000 lots. We expect the LME counterpart to underpin prices of the contract tonight. 

Nickel: A buildup of longs bolstered the SHFE 1905 contract above the 180-day moving average in the afternoon, after the contract traded around the daily moving average in the morning. It lacked upward momentum after rose to a high of 102,750 yuan/mt, and closed at 102,690 yuan/mt. As its KDJ indicators expanded upwards, we see it testing support at the 180-day moving average tonight. 

Lead: The SHFE 1904 contract shrugged off pressure from the 60-day moving average, after consolidated above the daily moving average in the morning. Investors added longs and cut shorts near closing, and this buoyed the contract. It ended at 17,365 yuan/mt, with open interests up 676 lots to 48,030 lots. We expect it to extend the robust trend if it receives support from the 60-day moving average tonight. 

Tin: The SHFE 1905 contract rebounded above the daily moving average after it fell below that level to an intraday low of 150,110 yuan/mt around noon. The 10-day moving average provided support. The contract closed at 150,600 yuan/mt with open interests down 340 lots to 34,686 lots. Continued support is expected at the 150,000 yuan/mt level tonight. 

Evening comments
Futures movement

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