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SMM Evening Comments (Feb 21)
Feb 21,2019 16:25CST
price review forecast
SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, Feb 21 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals ended mixed on Thursday February 21 as nickel increased over 1%, aluminium rose 0.41%, copper nudged up, while zinc lost 0.21%, lead fell 0.15%, and tin edged down. 

The ferrous complex strengthened as coking coal went up over 2%, coke, rebar, and hot-rolled coil grew more than 1%. 

Copper: The SHFE 1904 contract failed to stand firm above 50,000 yuan/mt as it lost support at the daily moving average and dropped to a low of 49,530 yuan/mt near closing. Open interests accumulated by 8,326 lots, with shorts accounting for the majority. This grew open interests across all SHFE copper contract today, by 5,588 lots. As the K and J line weakened, the 1904 contract is likely to test support at 49,530 yuan/mt tonight. 

Aluminium: The SHFE 1904 contract regained all post-CNY losses today as it climbed with support at the daily moving average, and closed at an intraday high of 13,555 yuan/mt. Open interests expanded 6,204 lots to 217,000 lots. The K indicator shrugged off pressure at the 40-day moving average. Tonight, the contract is likely to test support at the five- and 20-day moving averages but will see limited upward room given current fundamentals and high inventories. 

Zinc: The SHFE 1904 contract received support after it dipped to 21,600 yuan/mt twice in the morning. However, strong resistance at the daily moving average and weaker confidence among investors lowered it to an intraday low of 21,425 yuan/mt, and settled it at 21,450 yuan/mt. Open interests gained 15,768 lots to 242,000 lots. The five-, 10-, and 20-day moving averages below provided support. Tonight, the contract is likely to test support at the 20-day moving average. 

Nickel: Prices of nickel led the increases among SHFE base metals today, as the SHFE 1905 contract rebounded above the daily moving average and closed 1.07% higher on the day at 100,980 yuan/mt. This came after it fell to an intraday low of 100,670 yuan/mt as the US dollar went up and shorts entered. Open interests gained 928 lots to 325,000 lots. As its KDJ indicators expanded upwards and the MACD red line lengthened, the contract is expected to remain its robust trend tonight. 

Lead: Resistance at the daily moving average, together with rising shorts, weighed the SHFE 1904 contract to an intraday low of 16,720 yuan/mt near closing. This followed after it consolidated around 16,800 yuan/mt at noon. It ended at 16,765 yuan/mt with open interests grew 7,476 lots to 43,332 lots. A buildup of some 16,000 lots of short positions in the latest three days is unlikely to see the contract rebound much tonight. Support is set at 16,800 yuan/mt tonight. 

Tin: The SHFE 1905 contract continued to hover at highs as it rallied to an intraday high of 151,030 yuan/mt around noon after slid to a low of 150,300 yuan/mt in early trades. It closed above all moving averages, at 150,550 yuan/mt. We expect it to test pressure at 151,300 yuan/mt in the short run. 

Evening comments
Futures movement

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