Metals News
SMM Morning Comments (Feb 12)
price review forecast
Feb 12,2019

SHANGHAI, Feb 12 (SMM) –

Copper: LME copper traded lower to end at $6,144.5/mt on Monday. The SHFE 1903 contract recovered from earlier losses to end overnight higher at 48,420 yuan/mt. This was despite the robust US dollar, reflecting the strength in copper prices. With pressure from the greenback, the SHFE 1903 contract is likely to retreat today, but anticipated post-holiday demand recovery would offer support. LME copper is expected to trade at $6,140-6,200/mt today with the SHFE 1903 contract at 48,200-48,600 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at discounts of 40 yuan/mt to premiums of 20 yuan/mt.

Aluminium: Despite the stronger US dollar, LME aluminium regained earlier losses to close flat at $1,878/mt on Monday. With the indicated strength, LME aluminium is expected to trade at $1,870-1,900/mt today. As longs built positions at lows, the SHFE 1903 contract rallied above the five-day moving average to close at 13,370 yuan/mt overnight. It is expected to trade at 13,200-13,400 yuan/mt today with spot discounts at 110-70 yuan/mt.

Zinc: After a lower open, LME zinc dropped to end at $2,642.5/mt on Monday as weak consumption from low inventories affected the market. LME zinc is expected to remain weak today, trading between $2,610-2,660/mt. The SHFE 1903 contract traded in a tight range overnight and ended lower at 21,620 yuan/mt. A lack of signs of improved consumption and sharp gains in inventories lowered sentiment among longs. The contract is expected to remain weak and trade at 21,350-21,850 yuan/mt today.

Nickel: LME nickel slipped 0.8% to end at $12,470/mt on Monday. As shorts aggressively added their positions, the SHFE 1905 contract plunged to close at 99,390 yuan/mt overnight. Nickel prices are expected to be weak today. LME nickel is likely to trade at $12,250-12,450/mt with the SHFE 1903 contract at 99,000-99,500 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 98,700-99,700 yuan/mt.

Lead: A lower SHFE lead weighed on its LME counterpart on Monday, with the LME three-month contract losing some 2% to close at $2,046.5/mt. This lowered the contract below the 20-day moving average. After substantial losses in the day, the SHFE 1903 contract traded rangebound to close at 16,900 yuan/mt overnight. Shorts would dominate the market in the short run after Monday’s losses.

Tin: LME dipped to close at $20,970/mt on Monday, but stayed at highs with support from smaller supplies. Resistance is seen at $21,000/mt with next resistance at $22,000/mt. While the SHFE 1905 contract inched down to end at 149,630 yuan/mt overnight, it still stands above short-term moving averages. Its robust LME counterpart is expected to keep it at highs in the near term with resistance at 150,500 yuan/mt and support at 148,500 yuan/mt.

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