SMM Evening Comments (Jan 23)

Published: Jan 23, 2019 18:29

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SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, Jan 23 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals traded mixed on Wednesday. Nickel dropped 1.3%, tin fell 0.9%, copper lost 0.2% and lead declined 0.1% while aluminium gained 0.6% and zinc climbed 0.9%.

The ferrous complex also saw mixed performance. Iron ore slid 0.9%, rebar slipped 0.6% and hot-rolled coil sank 0.3% while coke advanced 0.3% and coking coal rose 1.3%.

Copper: As longs added and shorts cut their positions, the SHFE 1903 contract rebounded to the 47,500 yuan/mt level in early morning trade. This helped it recover some overnight losses. It traded in a tight range of 47,460-47,570 yuan/mt in the rest of the day and finished the trading day 0.2% lower at 47,540 yuan/mt. The contract has closed lower than overnight open for three consecutive days. It is likely to try to hold onto the 47,300 yuan/mt level tonight.

Aluminium: The SHFE 1903 contract climbed during the day and closed at 13,520 yuan/mt. This helped it recover the losses from the previous day and a rebound in its KDJ lines. SHFE alunimium has traded rangebound of late and is expected to test support at the 10-day moving average tonight.

Zinc: As longs loaded up their bets, the SHFE 1903 contract crept to an intra-day high of 21,675 yuan/mt. As some longs took profits, the contract closed at 21,595 yuan/mt, up 0.9% on the day. Continued low inventories and stimulus signals from the central government improved market sentiment and bolstered SHFE zinc. The contract is expected to stay at highs in the near term but with limited upward room. It is likely to trade rangebound around the upper Bollinger band tonight.

Nickel: The SHFE 1905 contract traded rangebound below the daily moving average during the day and failed to pare overnight losses. It ended at 93,670 yuan/mt, down 1.3% on the day. Its KDJ lines expanded downwards with a shorter MACD red bar. The contract is expected to hover around 93,600 yuan/mt tonight.

Lead: Supported by its LME counterpart, the SHFE 1903 contract inched up during the day and ended at 17,555 yuan/mt, up from overnight open but down 0.14% from settlement yesterday. The contract is likely to trade between the 20- and 40-day moving averages tonight.

Tin: The SHFE 1905 contract continued its overnight weak performance during the day and fell below the daily moving average. It finished the trading day 0.9% lower at 147,350 yuan/mt. Support remained at 147,000 yuan/mt.

Evening comments Copper Aluminium Zinc Nickel Tin Lead

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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